MLB Pitch Profile — World Series Game 5

Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay finally punched back.

The Rays survived Game 4 with a dramatic 12-inning walk-off win, cutting Milwaukee’s World Series lead to 3-1 and forcing at least one more night at Tropicana Field.

Now Tampa is making its boldest pitching decision of the series.

Game 5 Pitching Matchup

MIL — Jacob Misiorowski, RHP
TB — Drew Rasmussen, RHP

Rasmussen will start on three days’ rest, something Tampa has been extremely reluctant to ask him to do because of his injury history and the organization’s preference to give him extra recovery time. Earlier in this series, the Rays intentionally delayed him until Game 2 specifically so he could work on five days’ rest.

That makes Game 5 fascinating.

Milwaukee gets a second look at Rasmussen just four days after forcing him into his shortest start in months.

Tampa gets another chance at the most overpowering fastball in baseball.

And both starters enter with legitimate workload questions for completely different reasons.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Jacob Misiorowski

Misiorowski remains the simpler pitcher to profile.

His 2026 arsenal:

• Four-seam — 63.4%
• Cutter — 14.0%
• Slider — 10.8%
• Curveball — 10.7%
• Changeup — 1.1%

His four-seam averages roughly:

100.6 mph

and has reached:

105.5 mph.

He opened Game 1 by throwing 103.5 mph, the fastest tracked World Series pitch of the pitch-tracking era.

Everybody knows what is coming.

Nobody has figured out how to hit it consistently.

Misiorowski Four-Seam

Opponents hit only:

.174 AVG
.261 SLG
.243 wOBA

against the pitch.

It generated:

40.2% whiffs

and a:

43.6% strikeout rate

in plate appearances ending on the four-seam.

This is still the entire foundation of the matchup.

The Rays need to answer one question:

Can you catch 100+ mph?

Misiorowski Cutter

The cutter sits around:

95–96 mph

and gives hitters another hard pitch coming out of essentially the same window.

Opponents hit only:

.129 AVG
.259 SLG

against it.

That is what makes simply “cheating to the fastball” so dangerous.

Not every 97–101 mph pitch stays straight.

Misiorowski Slider

The slider sits around:

92 mph

and generated:

35%+ whiffs.

Once hitters accelerate their bats to survive the fastball, Misiorowski can pull velocity and shape away from them.

Misiorowski Curveball

This remains arguably his nastiest secondary pitch.

Opponents hit:

.094 AVG
.094 SLG

with:

43.9% whiffs

and a:

46.7% strikeout rate.

That makes two-strike counts brutal.

The Rays cannot afford to spend the entire night hitting:

0-2

and

1-2.

Misiorowski Handedness

This remains one of the biggest edges in the entire article.

vs LHB

.114 AVG
.189 OBP
.189 SLG

with roughly:

44.5% strikeouts

vs RHB

.209 AVG
.268 OBP
.314 SLG

with roughly:

29.8% strikeouts

That is a massive gap.

So once again:

Tampa’s right-handed hitters deserve a meaningful bump.

Not because they have a good matchup.

Because Misiorowski has been almost unfair against lefties.

What Tampa Learned in Game 1

Game 1 was interesting because Tampa did not strike out nearly as much as expected.

Misiorowski allowed:

1 run

4 hits

3 strikeouts

over 5 innings.

The Rays did not overpower him.

But they did:

foul off velocity

put balls in play

extend some counts

get him out after five

That matters tonight.

Milwaukee used a lot of pitching in Game 4, so there is additional incentive to let Misiorowski work deeper if he is effective.

Tampa’s best path is still:

survive the first 15–18 outs

force pitches

get into the bullpen

Yandy Díaz — RHB

Yandy remains one of my favorite Tampa hitters.

Against four-seamers:

.228 AVG
.380 SLG
.294 wOBA

with around:

20.7% whiffs.

That is not dominant.

But his secondary-pitch profile is excellent.

Against sliders:

.362 AVG
.588 SLG
.443 wOBA

with only:

14% whiffs.

That creates a strategic problem.

Projected Attack

Misiorowski should stay extremely fastball-heavy.

There is very little reason to voluntarily move into breaking balls that Yandy handles better.

Why He’s in Play

Yandy gets:

• the better side of Misiorowski’s split
• leadoff plate appearances
• elite strike-zone control
• better secondary-pitch skill than most Rays

DFS Take

4.0–4.5★ ALL / GPP

Junior Caminero — RHB

This remains Tampa’s best raw power matchup.

Against four-seamers:

.299 AVG
.641 SLG
.443 wOBA

with a:

62.2% hard-hit rate.

That is exactly what we want against Misiorowski.

Caminero can beat the pitch Misiorowski wants to throw.

The problem is what happens after that.

Against breaking balls, Caminero’s whiff rate rises substantially.

Projected Attack

Expect:

four-seam early

then:

curve/slider below the zone

once Misiorowski gets ahead.

Caminero also exited Game 4 with a foot issue, but Tampa indicated afterward that he is expected to play.

DFS Take

Best Rays home-run ceiling.

4.5★ CORE / GPP

Jonathan Aranda — LHB

Aranda’s raw pitch-type profile is much better than the handedness matchup.

Against cutters:

.382 AVG
.509 SLG

Against sweepers:

.360 AVG
.600 SLG

And he has enough power to punish mistakes.

But Misiorowski’s overall dominance against lefties is impossible to ignore.

Projected Attack

Heavy four-seam usage.

Misiorowski does not need to help Aranda by moving into cutter/breaking-ball sequences early.

DFS Take

Still viable because of his raw hitting ability.

But clearly below Yandy/Caminero.

3.0–3.5★ GPP

Liam Hicks — LHB

Hicks remains one of the strangest matchups in the series.

Against four-seamers:

.269 AVG
.423 SLG

with only:

5.1% whiffs.

Against cutters:

.389 AVG
.500 SLG

with only:

8.2% whiffs.

That is exactly the kind of contact profile that can survive Misiorowski.

The problem:

Hicks is left-handed.

And Misiorowski has completely dominated lefties.

Projected Attack

Fastball until Hicks proves he can keep fouling it off.

Then the curve becomes the natural finishing pitch.

DFS Take

Very interesting leverage play.

3.5★ GPP

Chandler Simpson — LHB

Simpson’s path is simple.

Against four-seamers he makes absurd amounts of contact:

.340 AVG

with only around:

4% whiffs.

He just does not hit the ball particularly hard.

That means he can survive Misiorowski without necessarily damaging him.

DFS Take

Needs:

single + steal + run

rather than power.

3.0★ GPP

Jonny DeLuca — RHB

This is one of the Rays I continue to like more than surface projections.

He bats right-handed.

That matters a lot.

Misiorowski is significantly less dominant against RHBs, and DeLuca has enough power to punish one mistake.

Projected Attack

Four-seam/cutter early.

Breaking ball once ahead.

DFS Take

Good secondary tournament target.

3.0–3.5★ GPP

Victor Mesa Jr. — RHB

Mesa gets the same handedness bump as DeLuca.

But he has much more swing-and-miss risk.

Misiorowski does not need to challenge him once ahead.

DFS Take

Pure ceiling dart.

2.5–3.0★ LARGE-FIELD

Richie Palacios — LHB

The handedness matchup is ugly.

Any DFS value comes through:

contact
speed
salary

rather than pitch-profile advantage.

2.0–2.5★ LARGE-FIELD

Taylor Walls — Switch Hitter

Walls likely bats left-handed against Misiorowski.

That pushes him into Misiorowski’s strongest split.

DFS Take

Salary only.

2.0★ LARGE-FIELD

Tampa vs. Misiorowski — The Key

Nothing changes from Game 1 philosophically.

Tampa needs to:

catch the fastball early

foul it off when they cannot square it

avoid chasing once Misiorowski gets ahead

force him toward 90+ pitches before the sixth inning

My Rays hierarchy:

Junior Caminero

Yandy Díaz

then:

Liam Hicks

Jonny DeLuca

for very different reasons.

Caminero can damage the heater.

Yandy can survive the plate appearance.

Hicks can make contact.

DeLuca gets the more favorable handedness split.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Drew Rasmussen

Now the article changes completely from the earlier bullpen-game version.

Rasmussen’s 2026 arsenal:

• Cutter — 28.9%
• Four-seam — 28.0%
• Sinker — 23.8%
• Changeup — 13.3%
• Curveball — 3.5%
• Sweeper — 2.6%.

There is no single dominant pitch.

And there is essentially no obvious weak one.

Rasmussen Cutter

Opponents hit:

.205 AVG
.326 SLG
.262 wOBA

with just:

29.4% hard-hit.

This is a contact-management weapon more than a huge strikeout pitch.

Rasmussen Four-Seam

Opponents hit:

.196 AVG
.323 SLG

with a:

33.1% strikeout rate in plate appearances ending on it.

The pitch averaged:

95.8 mph.

This is where he gets a lot of his strikeout ceiling.

Rasmussen Sinker

Opponents hit:

.197 AVG
.293 SLG

with only:

17.2% whiffs.

It is about:

weak contact

ground balls

poor barrel quality

rather than whiffs.

Rasmussen Changeup

This is his nastiest pitch by results.

Opponents hit:

.167 AVG
.167 SLG

with:

35.3% whiffs

and a:

36.7% strikeout rate.

This is the pitch that changes several Milwaukee hitters dramatically.

Rasmussen Handedness-Specific Usage

This remains critical.

Against left-handed hitters, Rasmussen threw:

521 four-seamers

437 cutters

285 changeups

271 sinkers

Against right-handed hitters:

224 four-seamers

331 cutters

only 69 changeups

362 sinkers.

That tells us exactly how he wants to attack Milwaukee.

vs LHB

More:

four-seam + cutter + changeup

vs RHB

More:

sinker + cutter

with far less changeup.

That is why:

Contreras

Chourio

Pratt

are fundamentally different matchups from:

Bauers

Yelich

Turang

Mitchell

Frelick

Hamilton.

The Game 2 Rematch Matters

Milwaukee already showed us its plan against Rasmussen.

In Game 2, they forced him to throw:

89 pitches in just 3⅔ innings.

They fouled off:

22 pitches

and whiffed only:

9 times on 45 swings.

He threw:

29 pitches in the first inning

and first-pitch strikes to only:

11 of 20 hitters.

That is an enormous piece of Game 5.

The Brewers did not necessarily crush Rasmussen.

They exhausted him.

And now Rasmussen is coming back on:

three days’ rest.

That makes pitch efficiency the biggest variable in the entire matchup.

Rasmussen Short-Rest Question

This is not normal usage for Tampa.

Earlier in the World Series, the Rays deliberately gave Rasmussen five days’ rest because their internal data suggested the extra recovery materially helps him. He also carries a long injury history and had already surpassed his previous career-high workload before October.

Now there is no tomorrow if Tampa loses.

So the calculus changes.

But I do not automatically assume:

100 pitches

or:

seven innings.

A realistic Game 5 path may be:

4–5 strong innings

with Tampa aggressively going to the bullpen if Rasmussen’s stuff or command slips.

That matters a lot for DFS.

Jackson Chourio — RHB

Chourio has one of the cleanest structural matchups against Rasmussen.

Right-handed hitters see:

more sinkers

more cutters

much less changeup.

Against sinkers:

.286 AVG
.419 SLG

with a:

53.7% hard-hit rate.

Against cutters:

.271 AVG
.500 SLG.

That is exactly the pitch distribution we want.

Projected Attack

Rasmussen can still elevate four-seamers and try to keep Chourio off the sinker.

But there is no easy changeup escape hatch.

DFS Take

My favorite raw Milwaukee hitter.

4.5★ CORE / GPP

William Contreras — RHB

Contreras remains the cleanest pure pitch-matchup Brewer against Rasmussen.

Against sinkers:

.331 AVG
.500 SLG
.398 wOBA

with only:

10.1% whiffs.

Against cutters:

.389 AVG
.722 SLG
.503 wOBA.

Those are Rasmussen’s two most important pitches to RHBs.

Projected Attack

Rasmussen may need to change his normal sequencing and use more four-seam/changeup than usual.

But that forces him away from his standard RHB plan.

DFS Take

Elite matchup.

4.5★ CORE / ALL

Cooper Pratt — RHB

Pratt becomes even more interesting after Game 4.

He went:

4-for-5

double

home run

two RBI

and nearly ended the World Series with his 12th-inning homer.

The matchup also works.

Right-handed hitters get:

sinker + cutter

rather than heavy changeup.

Pratt has shown strong contact against both.

DFS Take

Much more than a secondary piece now.

3.5–4.0★ GPP

Jake Bauers — LHB

Bauers can absolutely destroy Rasmussen’s hard stuff.

Against four-seamers:

.321 AVG
.550 SLG

Against sinkers:

.279 AVG
.523 SLG.

The problem remains enormous:

Rasmussen’s changeup.

Bauers whiffed nearly:

47%

against changeups this year.

And Rasmussen throws the pitch much more frequently to lefties.

Projected Attack

Avoid middle-zone fastballs.

Attack him with:

changeup down

and occasional curve.

DFS Take

Huge power ceiling.

Huge strikeout floor.

3.5★ GPP

Christian Yelich — LHB

Yelich matches Rasmussen better than most Milwaukee lefties.

Against cutters:

.328 AVG
.517 SLG

Against changeups:

.303 AVG
.485 SLG.

That is a big deal because those are two of Rasmussen’s primary weapons against LHBs.

Projected Attack

Rasmussen may need to use more four-seamers/sinkers than usual rather than feeding Yelich his preferred secondary matchups.

DFS Take

My favorite Milwaukee left-handed hitter.

4.0–4.5★ ALL / GPP

Brice Turang — LHB

Turang’s strongest pitch matchup is the sinker.

Against sinkers:

.319 AVG
.564 SLG
.455 wOBA.

But Rasmussen throws fewer sinkers to lefties.

Instead:

more four-seam

more cutter

more changeup.

And Turang has been much less dangerous against changeups.

Projected Attack

Rasmussen should lean heavily into his normal LHB sequence.

DFS Take

Good overall hitter.

Mediocre pitch-profile fit.

3.5★ ALL / GPP

Garrett Mitchell — LHB

Mitchell’s cutter numbers are absurd.

Against cutters:

.419 AVG
.839 SLG.

That gives him enormous upside if Rasmussen misses.

But the changeup problem is just as extreme.

Mitchell whiffed over:

50%

against changeups.

Projected Attack

Changeup-heavy once ahead.

DFS Take

Massive variance.

3.0–3.5★ LARGE-FIELD

Sal Frelick — LHB

Frelick remains one of Milwaukee’s most pitcher-proof contact hitters.

He does not strike out much.

He does not need power.

And he already showed in Game 2 how valuable long at-bats can be against Rasmussen, fouling off four pitches before homering on the ninth pitch of an at-bat against Ian Seymour later in the game.

DFS Take

Contact/speed/correlation.

3.0–3.5★ ALL / GPP

David Hamilton — LHB

Hamilton has some success against sinkers, but Rasmussen’s LHB plan gives him less access to that pitch.

He is much more likely to see:

changeup + four-seam + cutter.

That creates more swing-and-miss risk.

DFS Take

Speed/salary piece.

2.5–3.0★ GPP

Milwaukee vs. Rasmussen — The Key

This is not simply:

“Can Milwaukee hit Rasmussen?”

They already showed their route.

The question is:

Can Milwaukee force Rasmussen to throw 20+ pitches per inning again?

In Game 2 they:

fouled off everything

took borderline pitches

extended plate appearances

drove him to 89 pitches before four innings were complete.

And that was with:

five days’ rest.

Now he is on:

three days’ rest.

That makes:

plate-discipline hitters

and:

low-whiff hitters

more valuable than normal.

Jacob Misiorowski — 4.5★ CORE / ALL

Misiorowski remains the clear pitching ceiling.

His regular-season profile:

1.80 ERA

252 strikeouts

0.80 WHIP

.157 opponent AVG.

Game 1 was not a dominant strikeout performance.

Only:

3 Ks.

I would not project that to repeat.

Tampa did a good job of surviving his velocity, but the underlying matchup still creates enormous K upside.

Workload

Milwaukee badly needs length after using eight pitchers in Game 4.

That should mean a much longer leash than we normally see in October.

DFS Take

Clear SP1.

Drew Rasmussen — 3.5–4.0★ GPP / ALL

Raw pitching talent:

excellent.

Pitch-profile matchup:

good.

Rest/workload situation:

concerning.

Milwaukee already worked him for:

89 pitches in 3⅔ innings

just four nights ago.

And Tampa has spent the entire year prioritizing extra rest for him.

That does not mean he cannot pitch well.

It means I am not grading him like a normal fully rested Rasmussen start.

DFS Take

High-end real-life pitcher.

Much more fragile DFS workload than Misiorowski.

Bullpen Context

Tampa used seven pitchers Tuesday.

Nick Martinez threw:

33 pitches over two innings.

Bryan Baker also worked two innings.

Ian Seymour threw:

32 pitches.

That means Rasmussen working efficiently is extremely important.

Tampa still has rested options such as:

Steven Matz

Garrett Cleavinger

Cole Sulser

and others will likely declare themselves available because elimination games change normal usage patterns.

Milwaukee also used eight pitchers in Game 4.

Aaron Ashby threw:

2⅓ innings

while Abner Uribe and DL Hall also worked multiple outs.

Trevor Megill remains one of the fresher late-inning options.

That increases Misiorowski’s incentive to pitch deep.

My Favorite Rays

Tier 1

Junior Caminero — 4.5★ CORE / GPP

Best Rays hitter against Misiorowski’s main weapon.

Yandy Díaz — 4.0–4.5★ ALL / GPP

Best complete plate-appearance profile.

Tier 2

Liam Hicks — 3.5★ GPP

Elite four-seam contact despite the LHB disadvantage.

Jonny DeLuca — 3.0–3.5★ GPP

Right-handedness is extremely valuable here.

Jonathan Aranda — 3.0–3.5★ GPP

Strong raw hitter but brutal overall split matchup.

Tier 3

Chandler Simpson — 3.0★ GPP

Victor Mesa Jr. — 2.5–3.0★ LARGE-FIELD

Richie Palacios — 2.0–2.5★ LARGE-FIELD

Taylor Walls — 2.0★ LARGE-FIELD

My Favorite Brewers

Tier 1

William Contreras — 4.5★ CORE / ALL

Best pure pitch-profile matchup against Rasmussen.

Jackson Chourio — 4.5★ CORE / GPP

Excellent handedness-specific pitch distribution and highest raw ceiling.

Tier 2

Christian Yelich — 4.0–4.5★ ALL / GPP

Best left-handed matchup against Rasmussen’s likely arsenal.

Cooper Pratt — 3.5–4.0★ GPP

RHB structure plus scorching current form.

Brice Turang — 3.5★ ALL / GPP

Good overall play, but Rasmussen can avoid his favorite pitch.

Tier 3

Jake Bauers — 3.5★ GPP

Sal Frelick — 3.0–3.5★ ALL / GPP

Garrett Mitchell — 3.0–3.5★ LARGE-FIELD

David Hamilton — 2.5–3.0★ GPP

Overall Pitch-Profile Hitter Rankings

My corrected Game 5 board:

1. William Contreras
2. Junior Caminero
3. Jackson Chourio
4. Yandy Díaz
5. Christian Yelich
6. Cooper Pratt
7. Liam Hicks
8. Brice Turang
9. Jake Bauers
10. Jonny DeLuca

The biggest adjustment from the previous version is:

Milwaukee’s RHBs move up.

They no longer get a random bullpen mix.

They get Rasmussen’s predictable:

sinker + cutter

RHB attack.

And that is an excellent structural matchup for:

Contreras

Chourio

Pratt.

Overall Offensive Lean

Milwaukee > Tampa Bay

But the reasoning is different now.

It is not because Tampa lacks a real starter.

They have one of the best starters in baseball.

The issue is:

he is pitching on three days’ rest

Milwaukee already forced 89 pitches from him in 3⅔ innings

and the Brewers’ right-handed core matches his normal attack plan extremely well.

Meanwhile Tampa still has to deal with:

100+ mph Jacob Misiorowski.

So Milwaukee remains my preferred offensive side.

Final Game 5 Take

Starting Pitchers

1. Jacob Misiorowski — 4.5★ CORE / ALL

Highest K ceiling, full rest, and likely extended leash.

2. Drew Rasmussen — 3.5–4.0★ GPP / ALL

Elite pitcher, but short rest plus Milwaukee’s Game 2 approach create meaningful workload risk.

Four Hitters I’m Building the Article Around

William Contreras

Best intersection of Rasmussen’s likely RHB pitch mix and hitter strengths.

Junior Caminero

The Ray most capable of directly beating Misiorowski’s fastball.

Jackson Chourio

Power/speed ceiling plus favorable Rasmussen pitch distribution.

Yandy Díaz

Best Tampa plate-appearance quality and one of the better hitters for extending Misiorowski.

Under-the-Radar Game 5 Play

Cooper Pratt

This is no longer just recent-game chasing.

Yes, he went:

4-for-5 with a double and homer in Game 4.

But the matchup also works.

Rasmussen gives righties far more:

sinker + cutter

and far less:

changeup.

That is materially better for Pratt than the mix Milwaukee’s left-handed hitters are likely to see.

He is one of my favorite secondary Game 5 tournament bats.

The Core Game 5 Question

For Tampa:

Can they get Misiorowski out before the sixth?

For Milwaukee:

Can they repeat the Game 2 approach and make a short-rest Rasmussen throw 20+ pitches per inning?

If Milwaukee does that again, Tampa’s Game 4 bullpen workload becomes a major factor very quickly.

If Rasmussen is efficient, Tampa has a legitimate path to sending this series back to Milwaukee.

That makes pitch count, not simply runs allowed, one of the most important stats to watch from the very first inning.

Helmets up.