MLB Pitch Profile — World Series Game 2

Tampa Bay Rays at Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee grabbed Game 1 of the World Series 3-2, surviving a ninth-inning Rays rally after Jacob Misiorowski held Tampa to one earned run over five innings. Christian Yelich, William Contreras and Jackson Chourio each drove in a run for Milwaukee.

Now the pitching matchup completely changes.

Drew Rasmussen vs. Logan Henderson

Rasmussen enters Game 2 with a 2-0 record, 1.29 postseason ERA and 23 strikeouts, while Henderson is making his third postseason start after posting a 2.47 ERA and 110 strikeouts across 98⅓ regular-season innings.

And the most important thing for our Pitch Profile work is that these two pitchers attack hitters in completely different ways.

Rasmussen has one of the deepest and most balanced arsenals in baseball.

Henderson is essentially:

four-seam + changeup

with a cutter mixed in to prevent hitters from sitting on the two-pitch tunnel.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Logan Henderson

Henderson’s 2026 arsenal:

• Four-seam — 46.4%
• Changeup — 35.2%
• Cutter — 15.2%
• Sweeper — 3.1%

That means more than 81% of his pitches are either a four-seam fastball or changeup.

But the raw velocity is not what makes him difficult.

His fastball averages only:

93.1 mph

and his changeup:

82.9 mph.

The difference is movement and deception.

Henderson’s four-seamer has above-average ride, while his changeup gets roughly five inches more horizontal movement than comparable pitches.

And that changeup is the key to everything.

Henderson Four-Seam

Hitters managed only:

.155 AVG

.273 SLG

.218 wOBA

with a:

34.1% strikeout rate

against Henderson’s four-seam.

The interesting piece is that the pitch was not impossible to hit hard.

Its hard-hit rate was roughly:

49%.

So when hitters actually square it up, damage can happen.

The problem is getting the barrel there consistently.

Henderson Changeup

This is his best pitch.

Opponents hit:

.172 AVG

.361 SLG

.246 wOBA

with:

37.4% whiffs

and a:

32.6% strikeout rate.

And this is not a traditional “changeup only to opposite-handed hitters” pitcher.

Henderson throws it to both sides.

His 2026 handedness-specific usage was roughly:

vs LHB

48% four-seam
40% changeup
11% cutter

vs RHB

44% four-seam
26% changeup
23% cutter.

That is extremely important.

Tampa’s lefties are going to see a ton of changeups.

Tampa’s righties get noticeably more cutter.

Henderson Cutter

This is the pitch Tampa can attack.

Opponents hit:

.288 AVG

.519 SLG

.372 wOBA

against it, and the strikeout rate was only:

9.3%.

That is the clear weak point.

The problem is that Henderson only throws it about 15% overall.

Against righties, though, usage rises to roughly 23%.

So Tampa’s right-handed hitters get a little more access to his weakest pitch.

Henderson Handedness Results

Henderson was excellent against both sides.

vs LHB

.178 AVG
2.81 ERA split
73 K in 64⅓ innings

vs RHB

.192 AVG
1.85 ERA split
37 K in 34 innings.

So this is not a pitcher we attack simply through platoon advantage.

We need to find hitters who match:

four-seam + changeup

or righties who can punish the extra cutter exposure.

Junior Caminero — RHB

This is a fascinating matchup.

Caminero destroys four-seamers:

.299 AVG

.641 SLG

.443 wOBA

with a massive:

62.2% hard-hit rate.

That is exactly what we want against a pitcher throwing nearly half four-seamers.

But Henderson has the perfect counter.

Against changeups, Caminero drops to:

.239 AVG

.328 SLG

with a:

31.7% whiff rate.

MLB specifically highlighted this matchup before the World Series, noting that Caminero’s .328 slugging percentage against changeups was his lowest against any individual pitch type.

Projected Attack

Henderson has absolutely no reason to challenge Caminero repeatedly with four-seamers.

Expect:

fastball early to change eye level

then

changeup below the barrel

with cutters mixed in to prevent him from sitting offspeed.

DFS Take

Huge ceiling.

But Henderson’s best weapon attacks Caminero’s clearest weakness.

4.0★ GPP / ALL

Yandy Díaz — RHB

I actually like Yandy’s matchup more than Caminero’s from a pure sequencing standpoint.

Against four-seamers:

.228 AVG / .380 SLG

which is not great.

But against changeups:

.268 AVG

.482 SLG

.348 wOBA

with only:

15.2% whiffs.

And against cutters:

.288 AVG

with only:

14.9% whiffs.

So Henderson’s two main secondary weapons do not give him an obvious way to put Yandy away.

Projected Attack

More fastball than usual.

Henderson should be willing to challenge Yandy upstairs rather than feed him too many changeups or cutters.

DFS Take

Probably my favorite Rays full-at-bat matchup.

4.0–4.5★ ALL

Jonathan Aranda — LHB

Aranda is an extremely interesting fit.

Against four-seamers:

.246 AVG

.384 SLG

with a:

52% hard-hit rate.

That is acceptable.

But the important number is his changeup production:

.246 AVG

.462 SLG

.328 wOBA

with only:

15.7% whiffs

and a:

12.9% strikeout rate.

That is very good considering Henderson throws changeups to lefties about 40% of the time.

And Aranda destroys cutters:

.382 AVG

.509 SLG

.420 wOBA.

Projected Attack

Henderson’s normal lefty plan actually fits Aranda better than it fits most hitters:

fastball + changeup

and occasional cutter.

Aranda does not have a glaring hole against any of those three.

DFS Take

One of my favorite Rays matchup plays.

4.0★ GPP / ALL

Liam Hicks — LHB

Hicks might have the best contact profile on Tampa for this specific pitcher.

Against four-seamers:

.269 AVG

.423 SLG

with only:

5.1% whiffs.

Against changeups:

.313 AVG

.469 SLG

with only:

20.2% whiffs.

Against cutters:

.389 AVG

.500 SLG

with an:

8.2% whiff rate.

That is incredibly clean.

He does not have Caminero’s power.

But Henderson’s entire arsenal is built around forcing poor timing and weak contact, and Hicks simply does not miss much.

Projected Attack

Henderson can use the standard LHB plan.

There just is not an obvious pitch to exploit Hicks with.

DFS Take

Sneaky excellent Pitch Profile fit.

4.0★ GPP / ALL

Chandler Simpson — LHB

Simpson’s value remains very specific.

He is excellent at putting fastballs in play and can create fantasy points through speed.

Henderson’s changeup is the concern because Simpson does not possess the same secondary-pitch damage profile as Aranda/Hicks.

DFS Take

Useful contact/speed correlation piece.

3.0★ GPP

Jonny DeLuca — RHB

DeLuca benefits from Henderson’s handedness distribution.

Righties see:

less changeup

and

more cutter.

And the cutter is clearly Henderson’s most attackable pitch.

That gives DeLuca a more interesting matchup than his overall offensive profile might suggest.

DFS Take

Solid secondary GPP piece.

3.0–3.5★ GPP

Victor Mesa Jr. — RHB

Same basic structural advantage as DeLuca.

More cutter.

Less changeup.

But Mesa’s swing-and-miss tendencies keep the floor lower.

DFS Take

Ceiling dart.

2.5–3.0★ LARGE-FIELD

Richie Palacios / Taylor Walls

Both are more salary and lineup-correlation plays than priority hitters.

Henderson’s changeup-heavy approach to lefties is not ideal for either.

2.0–2.5★ LARGE-FIELD

Tampa vs. Henderson — The Key

This matchup is not about velocity.

It is about tunneling.

Henderson wants the hitter to see:

93 mph four-seam

then

83 mph changeup

coming out of essentially the same window.

The Rays hitters who stand out most are the ones who handle both pitches.

That pushes me toward:

Yandy Díaz

Jonathan Aranda

Liam Hicks

with Caminero still carrying the most raw HR upside.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Drew Rasmussen

Now we get to one of the hardest pitchers to attack in baseball.

Rasmussen’s 2026 arsenal:

• Cutter — 28.9%
• Four-seam — 28.0%
• Sinker — 23.8%
• Changeup — 13.3%
• Curveball — 3.5%
• Sweeper — 2.6%.

And unlike Martinez in Game 1, Rasmussen has essentially no obvious weak primary pitch.

Rasmussen Overall Results

Cutter

.205 AVG
.326 SLG
.262 wOBA

Four-seam

.196 AVG
.323 SLG
.270 wOBA

Sinker

.197 AVG
.293 SLG
.241 wOBA

Changeup

.167 AVG
.167 SLG
.148 wOBA.

That is absurd.

And Rasmussen’s changeup generated:

35.3% whiffs

and a:

36.7% strikeout rate.

Rasmussen Handedness

This matters enormously.

vs LHB

.205 AVG
.315 SLG
.254 wOBA
28.3% K

vs RHB

.191 AVG
.275 SLG
.230 wOBA
22.7% K.

So Rasmussen actually struck out lefties more often, but limited right-handed damage even more.

And the reason becomes clear when we look at his pitch usage.

Rasmussen vs. LHB

His pitch counts show a dramatically heavier usage of:

four-seam

cutter

changeup

against left-handed hitters.

In 2026 he threw:

521 four-seamers to LHB vs. 224 to RHB

285 changeups to LHB vs. 69 to RHB

and:

437 cutters to LHB.

So Milwaukee’s lefties need to solve:

four-seam + cutter + changeup

Rasmussen vs. RHB

Against righties, he uses much more:

sinker

cutter

with the four-seam becoming secondary and the changeup largely disappearing.

He threw:

362 sinkers to RHB

compared with:

271 to LHB.

That makes:

Chourio

Contreras

Pratt

very different matchups from:

Turang

Yelich

Bauers

Mitchell

Frelick

Hamilton.

William Contreras — RHB

Contreras remains one of my favorite Brewers hitters.

Against sinkers:

.331 AVG

.500 SLG

.398 wOBA.

Against cutters:

.389 AVG

.722 SLG

.503 wOBA.

Those are Rasmussen’s two most important pitches to righties.

That is an elite intersection.

Concern

Rasmussen is not Martinez.

Even the sinker and cutter have produced elite overall run prevention.

But if anyone matches the expected pitch distribution, it is Contreras.

DFS Take

Best pure Milwaukee Pitch Profile matchup.

4.5★ CORE / ALL

Jackson Chourio — RHB

Chourio also avoids a lot of Rasmussen’s elite changeup usage.

Against sinkers:

.286 AVG

.419 SLG

with a:

53.7% hard-hit rate.

Against cutters:

.271 AVG

.500 SLG.

That gives him a real path.

DFS Take

Highest raw Milwaukee ceiling.

4.0–4.5★ GPP / ALL

Cooper Pratt — RHB

Pratt again gets a sneaky handedness advantage.

He handles cutters reasonably well and is unlikely to see many changeups.

The ceiling is lower than Chourio/Contreras, but the matchup structure is good.

DFS Take

Secondary correlation piece.

3.0–3.5★ GPP

Brice Turang — LHB

Turang’s favorite pitch is the sinker.

Against sinkers:

.319 AVG

.564 SLG

.455 wOBA.

Unfortunately, Rasmussen throws fewer sinkers to lefties.

Instead Turang gets more:

four-seam

cutter

changeup.

And against changeups:

.203 AVG / .375 SLG.

That is a major matchup downgrade.

DFS Take

Still a good hitter.

But Rasmussen’s attack plan specifically reduces his best matchup.

3.5★ GPP / ALL

Christian Yelich — LHB

Yelich is more interesting.

Against cutters:

.328 AVG

.517 SLG.

Against changeups:

.303 AVG

.485 SLG.

Those are two pitches Rasmussen throws frequently to lefties.

So even though Rasmussen is excellent overall, the actual pitch distribution is not terrible for Yelich.

And Yelich drove in Milwaukee’s first run of Game 1 with an RBI triple before the Brewers held on for the win.

DFS Take

One of my favorite left-handed Brewers.

4.0★ GPP / ALL

Jake Bauers — LHB

Bauers destroys hard stuff.

Against four-seamers:

.321 AVG

.550 SLG

and against sinkers:

.279 AVG

.523 SLG.

The problem is Rasmussen’s changeup.

Bauers had nearly a:

47% whiff rate

against changeups.

And Rasmussen throws that pitch frequently to lefties.

DFS Take

Huge ceiling.

Huge strikeout risk.

3.5★ GPP

Garrett Mitchell — LHB

Mitchell crushes cutters:

.419 AVG

.839 SLG.

That immediately makes him interesting because Rasmussen throws the cutter almost 29%.

But Mitchell also whiffs more than 50% against changeups.

So Rasmussen has an obvious way to counter him.

DFS Take

Extreme boom/bust.

3.0–3.5★ LARGE-FIELD

Sal Frelick — LHB

Frelick is not a power target.

But he makes contact.

Against four-seamers he whiffs only around:

11%

and against sinkers:

under 3%.

That gives him a route to singles, runs and speed even against an elite pitcher.

DFS Take

Useful floor/correlation piece.

3.0★ GPP / ALL

David Hamilton — LHB

Hamilton handles sinkers very well, but Rasmussen’s left-handed pitch mix gives him fewer of them.

Instead he gets more changeups, where his whiff rate rises substantially.

The speed ceiling still matters.

DFS Take

Salary/speed play.

2.5–3.0★ GPP

Milwaukee vs. Rasmussen — The Key

There is no broad attack point.

Rasmussen’s four primary pitches allowed:

.205 AVG or lower.

So Milwaukee has to win individual matchups.

The right-handed hitters have the cleaner structural path because they avoid much of the changeup.

That pushes me toward:

William Contreras

Jackson Chourio

Then among the lefties:

Christian Yelich

because his pitch-type strengths actually line up fairly well with Rasmussen’s left-handed attack.

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Drew Rasmussen — 4.5★ CORE / ALL

Rasmussen is my SP1.

He has allowed only three earned runs across 21 postseason innings, good for a 1.29 ERA, and has held postseason hitters to a .178 batting average.

Tampa specifically held him back from Game 1 so he could pitch Game 2 on five days’ rest, a rest pattern the Rays believe materially benefits him.

He also faced Milwaukee at American Family Field earlier this season and allowed only two runs, one earned, while striking out eight across five innings.

DFS Take

Clear SP1.

Logan Henderson — 4.0★ GPP / ALL

Henderson is no slouch.

Regular season:

11-3

2.47 ERA

0.84 WHIP

110 K in 98⅓ innings

with a:

29.6% K rate

and only:

5.1% walks.

His four-seam/changeup combination is legitimately difficult:

Four-seam

.155 AVG / .273 SLG

Changeup

.172 AVG / .361 SLG

and both pitches generated strikeout rates above 32%.

The cutter is the vulnerability.

Concern

Tampa’s lineup is built around contact, and hitters like:

Yandy

Aranda

Hicks

match Henderson’s four-seam/changeup sequencing better than most teams.

DFS Take

Strong SP2.

But:

Rasmussen > Henderson

for me.

Bullpen Context

Milwaukee used its high-leverage bullpen to protect a one-run lead in Game 1, with Trevor Megill surviving a bases-loaded ninth. That introduces at least some workload consideration for Game 2, although the Brewers entered the World Series with one of the deepest and best-rested bullpens in baseball.

Tampa’s bullpen also remains strong, and Rasmussen has a better chance than Martinez did to work deep enough that Kevin Cash can shorten the game around his preferred leverage arms.

My Favorite Rays

Tier 1

Yandy Díaz — 4.0–4.5★ ALL

Best complete matchup against Henderson’s fastball/changeup/cutter distribution.

Jonathan Aranda — 4.0★ GPP / ALL

Very quietly matches Henderson’s left-handed attack extremely well.

Liam Hicks — 4.0★ GPP / ALL

Excellent contact profile against all three major Henderson pitches.

Tier 2

Junior Caminero — 4.0★ GPP / ALL

Highest raw ceiling, but Henderson’s changeup is a legitimately strong counter.

Jonny DeLuca — 3.0–3.5★ GPP

Gets additional cutter exposure as a righty.

Tier 3

Chandler Simpson — 3.0★ GPP

Victor Mesa Jr. — 2.5–3.0★ LARGE-FIELD

Richie Palacios — 2.0–2.5★ LARGE-FIELD

Taylor Walls — 2.0★ LARGE-FIELD

My Favorite Brewers

Tier 1

William Contreras — 4.5★ CORE / ALL

Best direct pitch-profile fit against Rasmussen.

Jackson Chourio — 4.0–4.5★ GPP / ALL

Right-handedness removes much of Rasmussen’s changeup threat.

Tier 2

Christian Yelich — 4.0★ GPP / ALL

Better matchup than the overall RHP/LHB designation suggests.

Brice Turang — 3.5★ ALL / GPP

Good hitter, but Rasmussen can steer him away from his preferred sinker matchup.

Tier 3

Jake Bauers — 3.5★ GPP

Cooper Pratt — 3.0–3.5★ GPP

Garrett Mitchell — 3.0–3.5★ LARGE-FIELD

Sal Frelick — 3.0★ GPP

David Hamilton — 2.5–3.0★ GPP

Overall Pitch-Profile Hitter Rankings

My Game 2 board:

1. William Contreras
2. Yandy Díaz
3. Jackson Chourio
4. Jonathan Aranda
5. Liam Hicks
6. Christian Yelich
7. Junior Caminero
8. Brice Turang
9. Jake Bauers
10. Jonny DeLuca

The biggest surprise is probably Caminero at No. 7.

That is not because I think he is the seventh-best hitter.

He may have the highest raw offensive ceiling in the game.

But Pitch Profile is specifically asking:

How does the pitcher attack this hitter?

And Henderson has an obvious weapon against Caminero:

the changeup.

Meanwhile Yandy, Aranda and Hicks do not give Henderson nearly as obvious a sequencing answer.

Overall Offensive Lean

Slight lean: Tampa Bay

This is a very different call from Game 1.

Milwaukee’s offense gets the harder pitcher.

Rasmussen:

• has no obvious weak pitch
• dominates both sides
• is fully rested
• already handled Milwaukee earlier this year
• enters in excellent postseason form.

Henderson is also very good.

But he has one identifiable weakness:

the cutter.

And several Tampa hitters fit his four-seam/changeup profile unusually well.

So my Game 2 offensive lean becomes:

TB > MIL

but narrowly.

The four hitters I am building the article around are:

William Contreras

Yandy Díaz

Jackson Chourio

Jonathan Aranda

And the non-obvious matchup play I really like is:

Liam Hicks

because he simply handles Henderson’s entire three-pitch core unusually well.

Final Pitching Take

1. Drew Rasmussen — 4.5★ CORE / ALL

More complete arsenal, better postseason form, five days’ rest, and very little for Milwaukee to attack directly.

2. Logan Henderson — 4.0★ GPP / ALL

Excellent four-seam/changeup profile, but Tampa’s contact-heavy lineup has several hitters who specifically fit those pitches well.

Game 2 looks like another lower-scoring World Series matchup, but unlike Game 1, I think Tampa’s hitters have more legitimate individual pitch-profile paths to success.

The trick is not simply stacking the Rays’ biggest names.

It is recognizing that Yandy, Aranda and Hicks may actually match Henderson better than Caminero does, even though Caminero remains the best raw power hitter in the lineup.

Helmets up.