MLB Pitch Profile — World Series Game 1

Tampa Bay Rays at Milwaukee Brewers

The World Series is here.

For the first time in franchise history, either the Tampa Bay Rays or Milwaukee Brewers will finish the season as World Series champions.

And Game 1 gives us a fascinating pitching contrast:

Nick Martinez vs. Jacob Misiorowski

Tampa officially chose Martinez for Game 1 rather than Drew Rasmussen. Martinez finished the regular season at 15-6 with a 3.10 ERA over 180 innings, and Tampa went 24-9 in his starts. The decision also allows the Rays to give Rasmussen additional rest before Game 2.

Milwaukee counters with arguably the most overpowering arm in baseball.

Misiorowski finished 2026:

16-5
1.80 ERA
0.80 WHIP
252 strikeouts in 174⅔ innings

with opponents hitting only .157.

But for Pitch Profile, those overall numbers are only the starting point.

The real question is:

How does each pitcher change his attack based on hitter handedness?

That matters enormously in this matchup.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Jacob Misiorowski

Misiorowski’s overall arsenal is extraordinarily concentrated:

• Four-seam — 63.4%
• Cutter — 14.0%
• Slider — 10.8%
• Curveball — 10.7%
• Changeup — 1.1%

His four-seamer averaged:

100.6 mph

and reached:

105.5 mph.

So the Rays know what is coming.

They still have to hit it.

Misiorowski Handedness Split

This is the most important statistical piece on the Tampa side.

Misiorowski was substantially more dominant against left-handed hitters than right-handed hitters in 2026.

vs. LHB

.114 AVG
.189 OBP
.189 SLG
.378 OPS

He struck out 163 of 366 batters faced, roughly a 44.5% strikeout rate.

vs. RHB

.209 AVG
.268 OBP
.314 SLG
.582 OPS

with 89 strikeouts in 299 batters faced, roughly a 29.8% strikeout rate.

That is a massive difference.

So we should not treat Tampa’s projected left-handed bats the same as its right-handed bats simply because all of them are facing the same 100 mph fastball.

The right-handed Rays have the materially better overall matchup.

Misiorowski Four-Seam

This is still the foundation against everybody.

Opponents hit:

.174 AVG

.261 SLG

.243 wOBA

with:

40.2% whiffs

and a ridiculous:

43.6% strikeout rate in plate appearances ending on the pitch.

Misiorowski does not need to hide the heater.

He simply challenges hitters with velocity until they prove they can handle it.

The critical distinction for Tampa is which hitters have shown they can actually compete against four-seamers.

Misiorowski Cutter

The cutter sits around:

95.8 mph

and opponents hit only:

.129 AVG

.259 SLG

with a:

.214 wOBA.

That gives Misiorowski an important answer when hitters start gearing up early for 100+.

They cannot simply commit to a straight fastball plane.

Misiorowski Slider

The slider averages:

91.9 mph

and produced:

.195 AVG

.345 SLG

with:

35.3% whiffs.

That is a nasty secondary primarily because the hitter has already been forced to speed everything up for the four-seam.

Misiorowski Curveball

This may be the most dominant pitch in the entire matchup.

Opponents hit:

.094 AVG

.094 SLG

with:

43.9% whiffs

and a:

46.7% strikeout rate.

So once Tampa gets behind, the matchup becomes even worse.

The Rays need to avoid letting Misiorowski dictate the plate appearance.

Junior Caminero — RHB

This is easily my favorite Rays matchup.

Caminero against four-seamers in 2026:

.305 AVG

.619 SLG

.439 wOBA

with a massive:

63.7% hard-hit rate.

He also handled cutters very well:

.325 AVG

.575 SLG

.410 wOBA

with only a:

13.5% whiff rate.

That matters because those two pitches account for more than three-quarters of Misiorowski’s arsenal.

His vulnerabilities come against the breaking balls:

Curveball

.184 AVG
34.9% whiff
39.2% K

Sweeper

35.7% whiff
32.8% K.

So I expect Misiorowski’s attack against Caminero to be:

challenge with the four-seam early

then, if he gets ahead:

expand with curve/slider below the zone.

DFS Take

Caminero is the Tampa hitter with the best chance to beat Misiorowski’s primary weapon.

4.5★ CORE / GPP

Yandy Díaz — RHB

Yandy gets the important handedness advantage relative to Tampa’s lefties, but his four-seam numbers are much less impressive than Caminero’s.

Against four-seamers:

.228 AVG

.380 SLG

.294 wOBA

with a:

20.7% whiff rate.

But where Yandy becomes extremely interesting is against Misiorowski’s breaking arsenal.

Slider

.362 AVG
.588 SLG
.443 wOBA
14% whiff

Curveball

.321 AVG
14.6% whiff

and Yandy has also absolutely destroyed sweepers this season.

That gives Misiorowski an awkward strategic choice.

If he pounds Yandy with four-seamers, the raw velocity favors the pitcher.

If he moves into breaking balls, Yandy becomes considerably more comfortable.

Projected Attack

I expect Misiorowski to be more fastball-heavy against Yandy than Caminero, because Yandy has been so strong against spin.

DFS Take

Lower HR ceiling than Caminero, but one of the better Rays for forcing deep counts.

4.0★ ALL / GPP

Jonny DeLuca — RHB

DeLuca gets one of the cleaner structural spots simply because he bats right-handed.

Misiorowski’s season-long results were dramatically less dominant against righties than lefties.

The problem is that DeLuca does not have Caminero’s elite four-seam damage profile.

So this becomes more about:

platoon survival + salary + lineup correlation

than a direct pitch advantage.

Projected Attack

Expect Misiorowski to stay aggressive with:

four-seam/cutter early

then expand with breaking pitches if DeLuca gets into a two-strike count.

DFS Take

Better matchup than the Tampa LHBs, but still secondary.

3.0★ GPP

Victor Mesa Jr. — RHB

Mesa also gets the better side of Misiorowski’s split.

That is important.

But the strikeout concern remains significant.

A hitter who can already become too aggressive is facing a pitcher with:

100+ mph velocity

plus two legitimate put-away breakers.

DFS Take

Raw ceiling keeps him playable, but this is still volatile.

2.5–3.0★ LARGE-FIELD

Jonathan Aranda — LHB

This is where handedness really changes the earlier analysis.

On aggregate pitch data, Aranda looked interesting.

Against cutters:

.382 AVG / .509 SLG / .420 wOBA

Against sliders:

.239 AVG / .537 SLG

Against sweepers:

.360 AVG / .600 SLG.

Those are excellent secondary-pitch numbers.

But Misiorowski absolutely destroyed left-handed hitters overall.

And against four-seamers, Aranda was merely solid:

.246 AVG

.384 SLG

.331 wOBA

with:

25.4% whiffs.

So the overall matchup is much more difficult than the raw cutter/slider numbers imply.

Projected Attack

Against Aranda, I would expect Misiorowski to lean heavily on the four-seam until Aranda proves he can catch it.

There is little reason to feed him cutters when that is one of Aranda’s best pitches.

Then Misiorowski can use the curve as the put-away weapon.

DFS Take

Still tournament-viable because Aranda can punish mistakes.

But definite downgrade because of the extreme LHB split.

3.0–3.5★ GPP

Liam Hicks — LHB

Hicks is the most interesting case in the entire Tampa lineup.

His ability to make contact with four-seamers is elite.

Against four-seamers:

.269 AVG

.423 SLG

and only:

5.1% whiffs

with a:

5.4% strikeout rate.

He also crushed cutters:

.389 AVG

.500 SLG

with just:

8.2% whiffs.

That looks fantastic against Misiorowski’s primary arsenal.

But Hicks is left-handed.

And Misiorowski held LHBs to a microscopic .114/.189/.189 slash line.

That is why this matchup is much more nuanced than simply saying “Hicks has a 5% fastball whiff rate.”

Projected Attack

Misiorowski should have no problem challenging Hicks with velocity early.

If Hicks starts spoiling fastballs, the curveball becomes the obvious counter.

Hicks hit curveballs reasonably well overall, but his strikeout rate on them was nearly 29%.

DFS Take

Very interesting contact matchup.

But the L/L-level dominance Misiorowski has shown keeps Hicks below the top RHBs.

3.5★ GPP

Chandler Simpson — LHB

Simpson does one thing extremely well against velocity:

he puts the ball in play.

Against four-seamers:

.340 AVG

with only:

4.1% whiffs

and:

3.4% strikeouts.

That is extremely impressive.

But there is almost no power behind it:

.381 SLG

and only:

16.1% hard-hit.

So this is a contact/speed matchup rather than a damage matchup.

His bigger problem is offspeed.

Against changeups:

.200 AVG

.218 SLG

with:

26.6% whiffs.

Misiorowski barely throws changeups, so that helps.

Projected Attack

Fastball-heavy early.

If Simpson starts fouling off pitches and extending the at-bat, Misiorowski can move to slider/curve.

DFS Take

Speed keeps him relevant.

The handedness split and lack of power keep him from becoming a top play.

3.0★ GPP

Richie Palacios — LHB

Palacios gets the same structural problem as Aranda/Hicks/Simpson.

Even if individual pitch-type numbers look playable, Misiorowski has simply erased left-handed hitters.

That makes him much more of a:

salary + lineup correlation

play.

2.0–2.5★ LARGE-FIELD

Taylor Walls — Switch Hitter

Walls can bat left-handed against the right-handed Misiorowski, which unfortunately puts him into Misiorowski’s most dominant platoon matchup.

There is little raw ceiling here anyway.

DFS Take

1.5–2.0★ LARGE-FIELD

Tampa vs. Misiorowski — Handedness Conclusion

This is the biggest adjustment from our earlier version.

The Rays’ right-handed hitters deserve a real bump.

Misiorowski:

vs LHB: .378 OPS

vs RHB: .582 OPS.

That does not make the righties good matchups.

It makes them less terrible.

My Tampa hierarchy becomes:

Junior Caminero

clear No. 1.

Yandy Díaz

best contact/plate-discipline righty.

Liam Hicks

interesting despite LHB status because his fastball contact is so unusual.

Jonny DeLuca

secondary right-handed leverage.

Then:

Aranda / Simpson

rather than automatically placing the Tampa lefties above the right-handed secondary bats.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Nick Martinez

This matchup is completely different.

Martinez does not overpower hitters.

He manipulates them.

His 2026 arsenal:

• Sinker — 31.7%
• Changeup — 25.8%
• Cutter — 22.0%
• Four-seam — 12.6%
• Curveball — 4.1%
• Slider — 3.8%.

But the overall percentages hide a meaningful handedness shift.

Martinez vs. Right-Handed Hitters

Based on his 2026 Statcast pitch counts, Martinez’s approximate mix against RHBs was:

Sinker — 39%

Cutter — 22%

Changeup — 21%

Four-seam — 11%

with curve/slider making up the rest.

That is a much more sinker-heavy attack.

This is important for:

Jackson Chourio

William Contreras

Cooper Pratt

because sinker/cutter becomes the core matchup.

Martinez vs. Left-Handed Hitters

Against LHBs, the approximate mix shifts to:

Changeup — 29%

Sinker — 26%

Cutter — 22%

Four-seam — 14%

with the breaking balls again used sparingly.

So the left-handed Brewers are substantially more likely to see Martinez’s best swing-and-miss pitch:

the changeup.

That matters for:

Turang

Bauers

Yelich

Mitchell

Frelick

Hamilton.

Martinez Sinker

The sinker is the primary attack point.

Opponents hit:

.277 AVG

.424 SLG

with expected numbers of:

.290 xBA

.466 xSLG.

It generated only:

9.3% whiffs.

So Martinez is asking hitters to put the ball on the ground or make imperfect contact.

Milwaukee’s best sinker hitters become extremely interesting.

Martinez Changeup

This is the counter.

Opponents hit:

.184 AVG

.313 SLG

with:

30.7% whiffs.

This is clearly Martinez’s best weapon.

And the fact that LHBs see more of it is a major DFS consideration.

Martinez Cutter

The cutter produced:

.239 AVG

.374 SLG

with only:

13% whiffs.

So this is not a dominant swing-and-miss pitch.

It is more about changing barrel location.

That matters because Milwaukee has several hitters who absolutely destroy cutters.

Martinez Four-Seam

This is the other pitch hitters can punish.

Opponents hit:

.253 AVG

.494 SLG

with:

.347 wOBA.

If Martinez falls behind and needs to elevate the four-seamer, Milwaukee has several hitters capable of doing real damage.

Jackson Chourio — RHB

This is a fantastic structural matchup.

Chourio should primarily see:

sinker + cutter

with less changeup than Milwaukee’s lefties.

That is exactly what we want.

His known 2026 profile against sinkers was strong, and his hard-contact ability against velocity gives him a clear ceiling path.

The bigger point is the pitch distribution.

Martinez’s best weapon — the changeup — is less central against right-handed hitters.

Projected Attack

Martinez likely tries:

sinker early

cutter off the barrel

then changeup occasionally as a surprise.

But he cannot simply spam his best pitch.

DFS Take

My favorite Brewers ceiling hitter.

4.5★ CORE / GPP

William Contreras — RHB

This is probably the best pure pitch-profile matchup in the game.

Against sinkers:

.331 AVG

.500 SLG

.398 wOBA

with only:

10.1% whiffs.

Against cutters:

.389 AVG

.722 SLG

.503 wOBA.

Those are Martinez’s two most important pitches against right-handed hitters.

Contreras also held his own against changeups:

.286 AVG

with only a:

16.4% strikeout rate in plate appearances ending on them.

Projected Attack

Martinez has a problem here.

The sinker and cutter are poor matchup pitches.

The changeup is better, but he uses it less against RHBs.

So we could actually see Martinez alter his normal sequencing and use more changeups than usual against Contreras.

DFS Take

Best pure Milwaukee pitch matchup.

4.5★ CORE / ALL

Cooper Pratt — RHB

Pratt is another right-handed hitter who benefits from the attack pattern.

Against cutters:

.316 AVG

with only:

4.3% strikeouts.

Against sinkers:

.262 AVG, but the expected numbers were much stronger:

.343 xBA / .451 xSLG.

The overall damage ceiling is lower than Chourio/Contreras, but he fits what Martinez is likely to throw.

Projected Attack

Heavy sinker/cutter.

Martinez should be comfortable challenging Pratt rather than giving him a lot of changeups.

DFS Take

Strong secondary correlation piece.

3.0–3.5★ GPP

Brice Turang — LHB

Turang is one of the biggest examples of why handedness matters.

Against sinkers:

.319 AVG

.564 SLG

.455 wOBA.

If Martinez were a heavy sinker pitcher against everybody, Turang would be an elite matchup.

But Martinez throws less sinker and more changeup against LHBs.

And Turang against changeups:

.203 AVG

.375 SLG

.284 wOBA.

That is a huge strategic difference.

Projected Attack

I expect Martinez to avoid feeding Turang sinkers in favorable counts.

More:

changeup

cutter

and selective four-seam.

DFS Take

Still a very good hitter.

But meaningfully worse pitch-profile fit than Chourio/Contreras.

3.5–4.0★ ALL / GPP

Christian Yelich — LHB

Yelich is the Milwaukee lefty I like most against Martinez.

Why?

Because he handles the pitches Martinez actually wants to throw to left-handed hitters.

Against cutters:

.328 AVG

.517 SLG

.390 wOBA.

Against changeups:

.303 AVG

.485 SLG

.349 wOBA

with only:

19.7% whiffs.

That is excellent.

Yelich struggles badly against sliders and curves, but Martinez barely uses those pitches.

That is exactly why handedness-adjusted pitch usage matters.

Projected Attack

Martinez’s normal LHB plan:

changeup + cutter

actually plays directly into two of Yelich’s better pitch profiles.

He may have to lean more sinker than usual against him.

DFS Take

Major upgrade.

Best Milwaukee left-handed matchup.

4.0–4.5★ ALL / GPP

Jake Bauers — LHB

Bauers absolutely destroys hard stuff.

Against four-seamers:

.321 AVG

.550 SLG

.434 wOBA.

Against sinkers:

.279 AVG

.523 SLG

.411 wOBA.

Those are elite numbers.

But the matchup changes when Martinez attacks him as a lefty.

Against changeups:

46.9% whiffs

and against curveballs:

44.7% whiffs.

Martinez rarely uses the curve, but the changeup will absolutely be part of the plan.

Projected Attack

This is one of the clearest attack plans in the game:

avoid middle-zone sinkers

and bury Bauers with:

changeups down/away.

DFS Take

Massive ceiling if Martinez misses.

Massive strikeout path if Martinez executes.

3.5★ GPP

Garrett Mitchell — LHB

Mitchell has an even more extreme version of the Bauers profile.

Against cutters:

.419 AVG

.839 SLG

.538 wOBA.

That is absurd.

Against sinkers:

.365 AVG

and a:

.413 wOBA.

But against changeups:

54.5% whiffs

34% strikeouts.

That is exactly why Martinez should not challenge him with hard stuff if he can help it.

Projected Attack

Heavy changeup usage.

Use the cutter only off the plate rather than trying to steal strikes in hittable locations.

DFS Take

One of the highest-variance players in the game.

3.0–3.5★ LARGE-FIELD GPP

Sal Frelick — LHB

Frelick is mostly a contact player.

Against four-seamers:

.243 AVG

with only:

11.3% whiffs.

Against sinkers:

only:

2.7% whiffs.

So Martinez is unlikely to overpower him.

But there also is not much damage.

Against sinkers, Frelick slugged only:

.293.

The interesting wrinkle is that Frelick actually handled changeups reasonably well:

.286 AVG

with only:

9.4% whiffs in the available sample.

Projected Attack

Martinez can stay with the standard LHB plan:

changeup/cutter/sinker

and simply trust the contact management.

DFS Take

Good floor-type correlation bat.

Limited ceiling.

3.0★ ALL / GPP

David Hamilton — LHB

Hamilton matches Martinez’s sinker very well:

.380 AVG

.460 SLG

.426 wOBA.

He also handles four-seamers reasonably well.

But changeups create problems:

35%+ whiffs

with around a:

28–30% strikeout rate.

Projected Attack

Same strategy as Bauers/Mitchell:

less sinker than Martinez normally throws overall,

more changeup.

DFS Take

Speed keeps him interesting.

Pitch-profile ceiling is limited.

2.5–3.0★ GPP

Milwaukee vs. Martinez — Handedness Conclusion

This is why the Brewers’ right-handed hitters rise substantially.

Martinez against RHBs projects to lean around:

39% sinker

22% cutter

21% changeup

while the LHB mix shifts toward:

29% changeup

26% sinker

22% cutter.

That gives:

William Contreras

an excellent sinker/cutter matchup.

Jackson Chourio

a strong hard-pitch profile without seeing quite as much of Martinez’s best weapon.

Meanwhile, the lefties split into two groups:

Yelich

can actually handle Martinez’s changeup/cutter attack.

Turang/Bauers/Mitchell/Hamilton

all have some level of vulnerability to the increased changeup usage.

That is a major ranking distinction.

Starting Pitchers

Jacob Misiorowski — 4.5★ CORE / GPP

Misiorowski is the clear raw DFS ceiling pitcher.

He struck out:

37.9% of hitters overall

and his four-seamer alone generated a:

43.6% K rate.

The Tampa lineup is difficult because it contains several elite-contact hitters.

But Misiorowski’s left-handed dominance gives him a huge advantage against a projected lineup containing:

Aranda

Hicks

Simpson

Palacios

plus Walls hitting left-handed.

Concern

The Rays can make him work.

Both San Diego and Los Angeles drove his pitch counts up by repeatedly fouling off velocity during the earlier postseason rounds.

DFS Take

Clear SP1.

Nick Martinez — 3.5★ GPP / ALL

Martinez’s fantasy path is completely different.

He is not going to win the slate through strikeouts.

He finished with only 109 strikeouts in 180 regular-season innings, so his ceiling requires:

innings

run prevention

efficiency

and ideally:

the win.

The problem is that Milwaukee’s lineup has several direct matches against his most-used pitches.

Concern

Contreras/Chourio/Yelich all fit his likely attack patterns very well.

DFS Take

Better real-life pitcher than DFS pitcher.

3.5★ GPP / ALL

Bullpen Context

Milwaukee’s bullpen enters the World Series in dominant form.

Brewers relievers carried a:

1.33 postseason ERA

through 40⅔ innings, with the leverage group of:

Trevor Megill

Aaron Ashby

DL Hall

combining for 23⅓ scoreless postseason innings.

That means getting Misiorowski out after four or five innings does not automatically turn Tampa into an elite offensive spot.

Tampa’s late-inning group has also been excellent, with Bryan Baker finishing every Rays postseason win without allowing a run.

Final Rays Rankings

Tier 1

Junior Caminero — 4.5★ CORE / GPP

Best combination of handedness and four-seam damage.

Tier 2

Yandy Díaz — 4.0★ ALL / GPP

RHB advantage plus excellent breaking-ball skill.

Liam Hicks — 3.5★ GPP

LHB downgrade, but his fastball contact skill is legitimately exceptional.

Tier 3

Jonathan Aranda — 3.0–3.5★ GPP

Good secondary-pitch profile, but Misiorowski’s lefty dominance matters.

Jonny DeLuca — 3.0★ GPP

RHB advantage raises him relative to several Tampa lefties.

Chandler Simpson — 3.0★ GPP

Excellent four-seam contact, minimal damage.

Victor Mesa Jr. — 2.5–3.0★ LARGE-FIELD

Richie Palacios — 2.0–2.5★ LARGE-FIELD

Taylor Walls — 1.5–2.0★ LARGE-FIELD

Final Brewers Rankings

Tier 1

William Contreras — 4.5★ CORE / ALL

Best pure matchup against Martinez’s projected RHB arsenal.

Jackson Chourio — 4.5★ CORE / GPP

Elite ceiling and should see a favorable sinker/cutter-heavy distribution.

Tier 2

Christian Yelich — 4.0–4.5★ ALL / GPP

Perhaps the biggest handedness-adjusted upgrade because he handles both changeups and cutters.

Brice Turang — 3.5–4.0★ ALL / GPP

Excellent sinker hitter, but Martinez can strategically steer him toward changeups.

Jake Bauers — 3.5★ GPP

Huge hard-pitch ceiling with obvious changeup vulnerability.

Tier 3

Garrett Mitchell — 3.0–3.5★ LARGE-FIELD

Crushes cutter/sinker, but Martinez’s changeup is a nightmare matchup.

Cooper Pratt — 3.0–3.5★ GPP

Sneaky RHB fit against Martinez’s normal sinker/cutter plan.

Sal Frelick — 3.0★ ALL / GPP

Contact play.

David Hamilton — 2.5–3.0★ GPP

Speed/sinker upside with changeup risk.

Overall Pitch-Profile Rankings

Now that we are properly weighting:

handedness

projected pitch distribution

hitter results against those pitches

and

how the pitcher should logically sequence each hitter

my top 10 becomes:

1. William Contreras
2. Jackson Chourio
3. Junior Caminero
4. Christian Yelich
5. Yandy Díaz
6. Brice Turang
7. Liam Hicks
8. Jake Bauers
9. Cooper Pratt
10. Jonathan Aranda

The most important changes from the earlier version:

Contreras moves to No. 1

because Martinez’s normal RHB sinker/cutter plan lines directly into his two strongest pitch profiles.

Yelich moves up

because Martinez’s preferred LHB changeup/cutter approach actually matches two pitches Yelich handles well.

Tampa’s LHBs move down

because Misiorowski was dramatically more dominant against left-handed hitters than right-handed hitters.

DeLuca becomes more playable

because being right-handed is legitimately valuable against Misiorowski.

Overall Offensive Lean

Milwaukee > Tampa Bay

And I feel stronger about that after doing the full handedness work.

Misiorowski has one huge structural advantage:

Tampa is projected to use a lot of left-handed hitters.

And he destroyed LHBs in 2026:

.114 AVG

.189 SLG

with a strikeout rate around:

44.5%.

Tampa’s best route is concentrated around:

Junior Caminero

Yandy Díaz

with Hicks interesting because of his unique fastball contact skill.

Milwaukee, meanwhile, gets a pitcher whose arsenal can genuinely be attacked.

The Brewers have hitters who match:

sinker

cutter

changeup

and

four-seam

in different ways.

And Martinez’s handedness-specific pitch usage creates particularly strong profiles for:

William Contreras

Jackson Chourio

Christian Yelich

So my final Game 1 lean is:

MIL > TB

My four centerpiece hitters for the article are:

William Contreras

Jackson Chourio

Junior Caminero

Christian Yelich

And the sneaky player I like more after the full handedness dive is:

Cooper Pratt

because Martinez’s normal RHB attack puts him into a much more manageable sinker/cutter environment than the left-handed Brewers will see.

Helmets up.