MLB Pitch Profile — World Series Game 3

Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays

Milwaukee heads to Tampa Bay with a 2-0 World Series lead after rallying from a four-run deficit to win Game 2, 5-4. The Rays now hand the ball to their hottest pitcher, Freddy Peralta, while the Brewers counter with left-hander Robert Gasser.

Game 3 Pitching Matchup

MIL — Robert Gasser, LHP
TB — Freddy Peralta, RHP

Peralta enters Game 3 on a remarkable run: 7-0 with a 0.89 ERA over his last 10 appearances, including nine starts, and he has a 1.45 ERA with 31 strikeouts in 37⅓ innings at Tropicana Field since joining Tampa Bay.

Gasser has also been excellent lately. Since August 26, including the postseason, he is 2-0 with a 1.51 ERA in eight appearances, and he has allowed only one run in nine innings across his two postseason starts.

This is a very different matchup from the first two games.

Gasser is a five-pitch lefty with a heavy sweeper/sinker/four-seam mix.

Peralta has turned back into Fastball Freddy, and that matters a lot more than his full-season numbers suggest.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Robert Gasser

Gasser’s 2026 pitch mix:

• Sweeper — 25.3%
• Four-seam — 23.3%
• Sinker — 22.5%
• Cutter — 18.1%
• Changeup — 10.3%

His two best pitches by strikeout impact have been the:

Sweeper

.204 AVG
.434 SLG
31.7% K rate

Four-seam

.208 AVG
.321 SLG
31.6% K rate.

The weaker points have been the sinker and cutter.

Sinker

.264 AVG
.414 SLG
.348 wOBA
52.9% hard-hit

Cutter

.237 AVG
.458 SLG
.347 wOBA

And the changeup has also been hittable enough:

.289 AVG
.422 SLG.

So the Rays do have attack points.

Gasser Handedness

This is where the matchup becomes much more important.

Gasser was dramatically tougher on left-handed hitters than right-handed hitters in 2026.

vs LHB

.163 AVG
0.94 WHIP

vs RHB

.257 AVG
1.31 WHIP

Right-handed hitters also did most of the home-run damage against him.

That makes Tampa’s likely lineup adjustment very important.

MLB currently projects the Rays to use more right-handed bats against Gasser, including:

Yandy Díaz
Ryan Vilade
Junior Caminero
Jonny DeLuca
Ben Williamson
Nick Fortes

with Aranda, Simpson and Walls still potentially remaining in the order.

This is exactly the right strategy against Gasser.

Yandy Díaz — RHB

Yandy’s matchup is very interesting because he handles several of Gasser’s main pitches well.

Against sinkers:

.308 AVG
.391 SLG
.362 wOBA

Against cutters:

.288 AVG
.325 wOBA

Against sweepers:

.390 AVG
.805 SLG
.529 wOBA

with only:

11.5% whiffs.

That sweeper number jumps off the page.

Gasser throws that pitch more than any other.

Projected Attack

Gasser should try to avoid feeding Yandy too many sweepers in the zone.

Expect more:

four-seam
cutter
and perhaps
changeup

to keep him from sitting on spin.

DFS Take

This is one of the cleanest Rays matchups.

4.5★ CORE / ALL

Junior Caminero — RHB

Caminero is the biggest raw power threat against Gasser.

Against sinkers:

.336 AVG
.575 SLG
.432 wOBA

with a:

56.8% hard-hit rate.

Against sweepers:

.232 AVG
.464 SLG

with:

33.3% whiffs.

That creates a very clear battle.

Gasser’s sinker is one of his more attackable pitches, and Caminero crushes sinkers.

But Gasser’s sweeper is his best put-away weapon, and Caminero will chase/miss enough against sweepers for that to matter.

Projected Attack

I expect Gasser to avoid sinkers in obvious damage counts.

The likely plan:

four-seam early
then
sweeper away
and use sinker selectively to steal contact.

DFS Take

Best Tampa home-run ceiling.

4.5★ CORE / GPP

Jonathan Aranda — LHB

Aranda is one of the more complicated decisions tonight.

His overall pitch profile is actually excellent against several Gasser pitches.

Against sinkers:

.315 AVG
.449 SLG
.390 wOBA

Against cutters:

.382 AVG
.509 SLG
.420 wOBA

Against sweepers:

.360 AVG
.600 SLG
.445 wOBA.

Those are very strong numbers.

But Gasser absolutely dominated left-handed hitters this season.

That means we cannot simply say:

“Aranda crushes sweepers and cutters, so he is a top play.”

The handedness split matters.

Projected Attack

Gasser can afford to attack Aranda more aggressively with the sweeper and four-seam because of the same-side advantage.

DFS Take

Still very playable because the pitch-type production is excellent.

But the L/L matchup keeps him below Yandy and Caminero.

3.5–4.0★ GPP / ALL

Ryan Vilade — RHB

Vilade is likely to enter the lineup specifically because Gasser is left-handed.

That alone gives him value on a one-game DFS slate.

He does not carry Yandy/Caminero-level power, but right-handed hitters were materially more successful against Gasser than lefties.

DFS Take

Platoon/value play.

3.0★ GPP

Jonny DeLuca — RHB

This is another matchup I like more than the raw box score.

Against sinkers:

.338 AVG
.554 SLG
.435 wOBA

Against cutters:

.433 AVG
.667 SLG
.482 wOBA.

Those are two of Gasser’s most attackable pitches.

The bad matchup is the sweeper:

36.7% whiff
48.6% K rate.

Projected Attack

Gasser should try to avoid sinker/cutter mistakes and push DeLuca toward sweepers.

If Gasser misses with hard stuff, DeLuca can absolutely do damage.

DFS Take

Strong tournament matchup.

3.5★ GPP

Ben Williamson — RHB

Williamson is more contact-oriented than power-oriented.

Against sinkers:

.279 AVG
.465 SLG

and he has a very low whiff profile against fastballs.

The concern is changeups:

.138 AVG
34% whiff
30% K rate.

He is also only 1-for-12 this postseason, so the current form is poor.

DFS Take

Playable because of handedness and salary.

2.5–3.0★ GPP

Nick Fortes — RHB

Fortes gets the platoon advantage and has shown solid contact against four-seamers and sinkers.

Against four-seamers:

.276 AVG

Against sinkers:

.250 AVG

But sweepers have been an issue:

.118 AVG
.176 SLG.

DFS Take

Mostly a salary/correlation play.

2.5★ GPP

Chandler Simpson — LHB

Simpson can put hard stuff in play.

Against four-seamers:

.340 AVG
with only
4.1% whiffs.

Against sinkers:

.321 AVG
with only
4.7% whiffs.

That is excellent contact ability.

The issue is that the contact is not loud.

His hard-hit rates against those pitches are extremely low.

And Gasser’s same-side advantage matters.

DFS Take

Contact/speed piece.

3.0★ GPP

Taylor Walls — Switch Hitter

Walls can bat right-handed against Gasser, which is a real positive.

His best matchup among Gasser’s arsenal is the cutter:

.405 AVG
.459 SLG.

The changeup is a major weakness:

.146 AVG
32.3% whiffs
36% K rate.

DFS Take

Cheap platoon value, not a priority bat.

2.5★ LARGE-FIELD

Tampa vs. Gasser — The Key

This matchup is driven by handedness.

Gasser:

vs LHB

.163 AVG

vs RHB

.257 AVG.

That gives Tampa’s right-handed bats a real structural edge.

My favorite Rays:

Yandy Díaz

because he crushes sweepers.

Junior Caminero

because he can destroy the sinker.

Jonny DeLuca

because the sinker/cutter matchup fits him well.

Aranda remains viable because his pitch-type numbers are genuinely strong, but the left-on-left matchup is not something I want to ignore.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Freddy Peralta

The full-season numbers do not tell the current Freddy Peralta story.

For the season:

4.42 ERA
156 strikeouts
in 169 innings.

But since late August:

7-0
0.89 ERA
over his last 10 appearances.

And the postseason version is different physically.

Peralta is throwing his four-seam:

67.1% of the time this postseason

at an average velocity of:

96.9 mph

after averaging only:

94.3 mph

during the regular season.

That is a massive change.

This is Fastball Freddy again.

Peralta 2026 Arsenal

Regular-season pitch mix:

• Four-seam — 53.0%
• Changeup — 23.4%
• Curveball — 13.9%
• Sweeper — 5.7%
• Slider — 4.0%.

But in October, the four-seam has become even more dominant.

That is the pitch Milwaukee must solve first.

Peralta Four-Seam

Regular-season results:

.265 AVG
.435 SLG
.352 wOBA
46.8% hard-hit.

Those numbers are not elite.

But they were produced mostly at 94 mph.

Now he is closer to 97.

That changes the reaction-time equation considerably.

Peralta Changeup

Opponents hit:

.224 AVG
.333 SLG
.282 wOBA

with:

28.9% whiffs.

This is the pitch that keeps hitters from simply cheating to the elevated four-seam.

Peralta Curveball

The curve generated:

31.6% whiffs
and a:
29.2% K rate

with a much better expected profile than the raw slugging numbers suggest.

That becomes especially important once hitters start selling out for 97 mph fastballs.

Peralta Handedness

Peralta allowed more power to left-handed hitters than right-handed hitters in 2026.

vs LHB

.254 AVG
.439 SLG

vs RHB

.234 AVG
.366 SLG.

That gives Milwaukee’s left-handed hitters some additional appeal.

Jackson Chourio — RHB

Chourio is one of the biggest challenges for Peralta because he handles both fastballs and secondary pitches.

Against changeups:

.310 AVG
.552 SLG
.379 wOBA

Against curveballs:

.414 AVG
.586 SLG
.445 wOBA.

That is important because those are exactly the pitches Peralta wants to use when hitters start cheating for fastballs.

Chourio also comes into Game 3 hot after collecting two hits and two stolen bases in Game 2.

Projected Attack

Peralta likely stays extremely fastball-heavy.

There is little reason to feed Chourio secondary pitches if he is seeing them this well.

DFS Take

Best raw Milwaukee ceiling.

4.5★ CORE / GPP

Jake Bauers — LHB

Bauers is fascinating.

Against four-seamers:

.321 AVG
.550 SLG
.434 wOBA.

That is exactly what we want against Peralta.

But against curveballs:

.111 AVG
44.7% whiffs
42.6% K rate.

And against changeups:

46.9% whiffs.

Projected Attack

Peralta should challenge Bauers with velocity early.

If Bauers catches up, immediately go:

changeup/curve below the zone.

DFS Take

Massive home-run upside with enormous strikeout risk.

3.5–4.0★ GPP

Christian Yelich — LHB

Yelich gets one of the more interesting handedness advantages.

Peralta was more vulnerable to left-handed power overall.

Yelich also handles changeups well:

.303 AVG
.485 SLG

but struggles against curveballs:

.148 AVG
40.4% whiffs
42.9% K rate.

Projected Attack

Expect Peralta to use the four-seam aggressively, then lean on curveball rather than changeup as the main put-away weapon.

DFS Take

Still one of my favorite Brewers lefties.

4.0★ ALL / GPP

William Contreras — RHB

Contreras has been the best Milwaukee hitter this postseason.

He leads all postseason hitters with 15 hits and carries a 1.135 OPS.

The matchup with Peralta is more mixed.

Against four-seamers:

.226 AVG
.353 SLG

Against changeups:

.286 AVG

Against curveballs:

.258 AVG
with a:
36.1% K rate.

This is not as clean as his Game 1 or Game 2 matchup.

Projected Attack

Peralta can challenge him with elevated four-seamers and use the curve beneath the zone.

DFS Take

Elite hitter, but not elite pitch-profile fit.

4.0★ ALL / GPP

Brice Turang — LHB

Turang’s fastball matchup is okay but not spectacular.

Against four-seamers:

.256 AVG
.413 SLG

with:
29.1% K rate.

Against changeups:

.203 AVG
.375 SLG.

But against curveballs:

.362 AVG
.511 SLG.

Projected Attack

Peralta should stay more:

four-seam/changeup

and less curveball against Turang.

DFS Take

Good hitter, tougher pitch fit.

3.5★ ALL / GPP

Garrett Mitchell — LHB

Mitchell gets the platoon side that has historically given Peralta more trouble, but he also carries a lot of swing-and-miss risk.

Peralta’s increased postseason velocity makes this an especially volatile matchup.

DFS Take

Pure tournament ceiling.

3.0–3.5★ LARGE-FIELD

Cooper Pratt — RHB

Pratt has quietly become one of Milwaukee’s most important postseason bats and delivered the go-ahead RBI single in Game 2.

The matchup is not ideal because Peralta is tougher on righties, but Pratt’s contact-oriented approach gives him a chance to survive the fastball-heavy attack.

DFS Take

Secondary correlation piece.

3.0–3.5★ GPP

Sal Frelick — LHB

Frelick has been one of Milwaukee’s biggest postseason glue players and tied Game 2 with a home run off Ian Seymour.

He does not bring elite raw power, but his contact profile gives him a route against Peralta even if the velocity stays elevated.

DFS Take

Contact/speed correlation play.

3.0–3.5★ ALL / GPP

David Hamilton — LHB

Hamilton gets the favorable side of Peralta’s platoon split but remains heavily dependent on speed and contact.

DFS Take

Salary/speed play.

2.5–3.0★ GPP

Milwaukee vs. Peralta — The Key

The biggest question is:

Can Milwaukee hit the postseason version of Freddy Peralta’s fastball?

He is now throwing the four-seam:

67.1% of the time

at nearly:

97 mph.

That makes everything else secondary.

The hitters I trust most:

Jackson Chourio

because he does not need a secondary pitch mistake.

Christian Yelich

because the platoon split and changeup success help.

Jake Bauers

because he can crush four-seamers.

Contreras remains an elite overall hitter, but this is not his cleanest individual pitch matchup.

Starting Pitchers

Freddy Peralta — 4.5★ CORE / ALL

This is the most important pitcher on the slate.

His full-season ERA is misleading relative to his current form.

Since late August:

7-0
0.89 ERA

and he has a:

1.45 ERA at Tropicana Field since joining Tampa Bay.

His postseason velocity spike is real, and his four-seam has become the dominant feature of the arsenal.

Concern

Milwaukee has several hitters who know him extremely well from years of seeing him as a teammate.

That familiarity is difficult to quantify.

DFS Take

SP1

Robert Gasser — 4.0★ GPP / ALL

Gasser has allowed just:

one run in nine postseason innings

and owns a strong strikeout profile with both his sweeper and four-seam.

The concern is platoon construction.

Tampa can stack the lineup with right-handed hitters, and righties hit:

.257

against Gasser compared with:

.163

for lefties.

DFS Take

Strong pitcher.

But:

Peralta > Gasser

Bullpen Context

Milwaukee’s bullpen remains one of the defining edges of the series.

Brewers relievers own a:

1.24 ERA

through the first 10 postseason games.

Aaron Ashby is still scoreless through:

15⅔ postseason innings.

Tampa’s bullpen is fully rested after the Sunday off-day, with Bryan Baker, Cam Booser, Tyler Wells and Kevin Kelly all available. Griffin Jax remains a possible Game 4 option, so Tampa may be careful about using him unless necessary.

My Favorite Rays

Tier 1

Yandy Díaz — 4.5★ CORE / ALL

Elite sweeper matchup against Gasser and strong platoon advantage.

Junior Caminero — 4.5★ CORE / GPP

Huge sinker damage profile and the highest Rays power ceiling.

Tier 2

Jonathan Aranda — 3.5–4.0★ GPP / ALL

Great pitch-type profile, but the left-on-left matchup matters.

Jonny DeLuca — 3.5★ GPP

Excellent sinker/cutter matchup with sweeper risk.

Tier 3

Ryan Vilade — 3.0★ GPP

Chandler Simpson — 3.0★ GPP

Ben Williamson — 2.5–3.0★ GPP

Nick Fortes — 2.5★ GPP

Taylor Walls — 2.5★ LARGE-FIELD

My Favorite Brewers

Tier 1

Jackson Chourio — 4.5★ CORE / GPP

Best combination of raw ceiling, current form and ability to handle Peralta’s secondary arsenal.

Christian Yelich — 4.0★ ALL / GPP

Gets the better side of Peralta’s power split and handles changeups well.

Tier 2

William Contreras — 4.0★ ALL / GPP

Best postseason form, though this specific pitch matchup is less ideal.

Jake Bauers — 3.5–4.0★ GPP

Elite fastball matchup, brutal breaking-ball downside.

Tier 3

Brice Turang — 3.5★ ALL / GPP

Sal Frelick — 3.0–3.5★ ALL / GPP

Cooper Pratt — 3.0–3.5★ GPP

Garrett Mitchell — 3.0–3.5★ LARGE-FIELD

David Hamilton — 2.5–3.0★ GPP

Overall Pitch-Profile Hitter Rankings

My Game 3 board:

1. Yandy Díaz
2. Junior Caminero
3. Jackson Chourio
4. Christian Yelich
5. William Contreras
6. Jonathan Aranda
7. Jake Bauers
8. Jonny DeLuca
9. Brice Turang
10. Sal Frelick

Overall Offensive Lean

Tampa Bay > Milwaukee

This is the first game of the series where I think Tampa has the cleaner overall hitting matchup.

Gasser has been excellent, but his handedness split is too significant to ignore.

Right-handed hitters hit:

.257

against him.

And Tampa can get several righties into the lineup specifically to exploit that.

Milwaukee, meanwhile, has to deal with the hottest version of Freddy Peralta we have seen all season.

He has increased his fastball usage and velocity dramatically in October, and he enters Game 3 with a 0.89 ERA over his last 10 appearances.

So my Game 3 lean is:

TB > MIL offensively

Freddy Peralta > Robert Gasser on the mound

The four hitters I am building the article around:

Yandy Díaz

Junior Caminero

Jackson Chourio

Christian Yelich

And the under-the-radar matchup I really like is:

Jonny DeLuca

because Gasser’s two weaker hard pitches — sinker and cutter — line up extremely well with DeLuca’s 2026 pitch-type production.

Helmets up.