MLB Pitch Profile — World Series Game 4

Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays

Milwaukee is one win away from its first World Series championship.

After two one-run wins in Milwaukee, the Brewers blew Game 3 open with an eight-run fifth inning and cruised to a 10-1 victory, taking a commanding 3-0 series lead.

Now Tampa’s season comes down to Game 4.

Confirmed Tampa Starter

Griffin Jax — RHP

Milwaukee Starter

TBD

And that “TBD” matters.

Brandon Woodruff had actually been preparing to start Game 4 before Milwaukee gave him the ninth inning of Monday’s blowout. He chose to pitch immediately, which leaves Milwaukee with several possible paths:

• Dustin May — RHP
• Shane Drohan — LHP
• Kyle Harrison — LHP
• or a true bullpen opener before turning the game over to the rested leverage group.

So this Pitch Profile needs to be approached differently.

For Milwaukee hitters, we can evaluate a relatively stable matchup against Griffin Jax.

For Tampa hitters, we need to ask:

Which hitters survive multiple pitcher archetypes?

That matters more than simply asking who matches the opener.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Griffin Jax

Jax has become one of baseball’s more interesting hybrid starters.

He spent years as a high-leverage reliever but moved into Tampa’s rotation this season and finished 2026 with:

112⅓ innings
116 strikeouts
1.18 WHIP.

He was especially strong down the stretch.

Over his final seven regular-season appearances:

2.59 ERA
34 strikeouts in 31⅓ innings.

The postseason has been less clean:

6.00 ERA in six innings

including three runs over four innings against Cleveland in the ALCS.

Jax Arsenal

His 2026 pitch mix:

• Sweeper — 25.1%
• Sinker — 22.7%
• Changeup — 22.6%
• Four-seam — 18.1%
• Curveball — 8.7%
• Cutter — 2.9%.

That is a very unusual distribution.

There is no 50% fastball.

No single pitch defines the entire matchup.

Jax constantly changes shapes.

Jax Sweeper

The sweeper is his most-used pitch.

Opponents hit:

.222 AVG
.417 SLG
.299 wOBA

with:

35.7% whiffs.

That is good, but not untouchable.

The important part is that this is the pitch Jax can use to move hitters off the hard stuff.

Jax Sinker

The sinker is much more contact-oriented.

Opponents hit:

.254 AVG

with a:

.407 SLG

and only:

11.9% whiffs.

This is one of the clearer pitches Milwaukee can attack.

Jax Changeup

This is probably his best pure strikeout pitch.

Opponents hit:

.226 AVG
.278 SLG

with:

41.9% whiffs
and a:
36.6% strikeout rate.

That is elite.

Jax can use it to both sides and it gives him a legitimate answer to hitters who start cheating to his fastballs.

Jax Four-Seam

This is probably his most attackable power pitch.

Opponents hit:

.250 AVG
.484 SLG
.344 wOBA

with a:

44.7% hard-hit rate.

So if Jax misses with elevated velocity, Milwaukee can punish it.

Jax Curveball

The curve has been excellent.

Opponents hit:

.167 AVG

with:

42.6% whiffs
and a:
46.7% strikeout rate.

He does not use it much, but it gives him another legitimate put-away weapon.

Jax Handedness

Jax was better at suppressing right-handed damage:

vs LHB

.248 AVG
.404 SLG
.704 OPS

vs RHB

.216 AVG
.346 SLG
.632 OPS.

Lefties also struck out more often against him, but they did slightly more damage when they made contact.

That makes Milwaukee’s left-handed core particularly interesting.

Jackson Chourio — RHB

Chourio enters Game 4 absolutely rolling.

He is hitting .571 in the World Series through three games and has looked comfortable regardless of pitcher type.

The matchup with Jax is mixed.

Against four-seamers:

.331 AVG
.618 SLG
.429 wOBA

with a:

58.8% hard-hit rate.

Against sinkers:

.286 AVG
.419 SLG

with a:

53.7% hard-hit rate.

Those are two pitches Jax needs to use.

The concern is the sweeper.

Against sweepers:

.185 AVG
with a:
27.9% whiff rate.

Projected Attack

I expect Jax to use more:

sweeper + changeup

against Chourio and avoid simply challenging him with four-seamers.

DFS Take

Still the highest raw Milwaukee ceiling.

4.5★ CORE / GPP

Jake Bauers — LHB

This matchup is fascinating.

Bauers absolutely crushes hard pitches.

Against four-seamers:

.321 AVG
.550 SLG
.434 wOBA

Against sinkers:

.279 AVG
.523 SLG.

That is a direct threat to Jax’s four-seam/sinker package.

But the offspeed is dangerous.

Against changeups:

46.9% whiffs

Against curves:

44.7% whiffs
and:
42.6% strikeouts.

Projected Attack

Jax should avoid challenging Bauers with hard pitches in obvious damage counts.

Expect:

changeup
curve
and sweepers below the zone.

DFS Take

Massive ceiling.

Very real strikeout floor.

4.0★ GPP

Christian Yelich — LHB

Yelich is one of the better Jax matchups.

He has been excellent against:

Cutter

.328 AVG
.517 SLG

Changeup

.303 AVG
.485 SLG.

The problem pitch is the sweeper:

.195 AVG
35.9% whiffs.

And he has been terrible against sliders.

Jax is not a true slider pitcher, though.

That matters.

Projected Attack

More:

sweeper

and possibly curveball.

Less changeup than Jax normally throws.

DFS Take

Strong matchup overall.

4.0–4.5★ ALL / GPP

William Contreras — RHB

Contreras enters Game 4 hitting:

.538 in the World Series.

His pitch matchup is extremely interesting.

Against sinkers:

.331 AVG
.500 SLG
.398 wOBA

Against cutters:

.389 AVG
.722 SLG
.503 wOBA.

The clear weakness is Jax’s most-used pitch:

Sweeper

.161 AVG
.339 SLG
.242 wOBA.

That creates one of the cleanest attack plans on either side.

Projected Attack

Jax should make Contreras prove he can handle sweepers.

If he gets too sinker-heavy, Contreras has a huge advantage.

DFS Take

Still elite.

But the sweeper keeps this from being as perfect as Games 1–2.

4.0–4.5★ ALL / GPP

Brice Turang — LHB

Turang is another hitter who gets a favorable handedness setup.

His best Jax matchup is the sinker:

.319 AVG
.564 SLG
.455 wOBA.

He also crushes cutters:

.368 AVG
.737 SLG
.504 wOBA.

Against changeups:

.203 AVG

which gives Jax a way to neutralize him.

Projected Attack

Expect more:

changeup + sweeper

and fewer sinkers in obvious hitter’s counts.

DFS Take

Better matchup than his Game 3 spot.

4.0★ ALL / GPP

Garrett Mitchell — LHB

Mitchell’s power ceiling is real, but he remains one of the most volatile hitters in the lineup.

His biggest concern is that Jax has multiple swing-and-miss secondaries.

Mitchell can destroy mistakes, especially hard stuff, but Jax does not need to challenge him.

DFS Take

High-risk tournament bat.

3.0–3.5★ LARGE-FIELD

Cooper Pratt — RHB

Pratt keeps producing.

He has become a critical piece of Milwaukee’s postseason offense and once again fits as a low-strikeout correlation piece.

Jax has generally suppressed right-handed hitters better than lefties, so this is not an elite individual matchup.

DFS Take

Secondary stack piece.

3.0–3.5★ GPP

Sal Frelick — LHB

Frelick has quietly been one of Milwaukee’s most important players in this series.

Through three games he owns an OPS north of:

1.100.

He also matches Jax’s sinker reasonably well because his contact rate is excellent.

He does not need a homer to produce.

DFS Take

Contact/speed/floor play.

3.5★ ALL / GPP

David Hamilton — LHB

Hamilton has been part of Milwaukee’s pressure offense and brings speed regardless of the pitcher.

The left-handedness gives him the slightly better damage split against Jax.

DFS Take

Salary/speed option.

3.0★ GPP

Milwaukee vs. Jax — The Key

This is not a matchup where I want to say:

“Attack this one pitch.”

Jax has too many options.

But his harder pitches have been much more attackable than his changeup and curveball.

That makes:

Chourio

Bauers

Turang

Contreras

particularly interesting when Jax needs to come into the zone.

And Milwaukee’s left-handed bats get the better overall platoon damage profile.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee’s Pitching Tree

This is where Game 4 gets messy.

Milwaukee has not named a starter.

The possibilities:

Dustin May — RHP

Shane Drohan — LHP

Kyle Harrison — LHP

bullpen opener

followed by some mix of:

Aaron Ashby — LHP

Abner Uribe — RHP

Trevor Megill — RHP

Dustin May / Drohan / Harrison in bulk

Milwaukee’s high-leverage trio of Ashby, Uribe and Megill all rested in Game 3.

That means Tampa hitters cannot be evaluated for one matchup.

They need to survive multiple ones.

If Dustin May Gets the Bulk

May brings a deep six-pitch arsenal and real velocity.

His core includes:

four-seam — 96.9 mph

sinker — 96.6 mph

cutter — 93.3 mph

plus a sweeper, curve and changeup.

That is difficult because he can change shape without changing velocity dramatically.

Tampa’s contact hitters become more attractive than one-dimensional power bats.

If Shane Drohan Opens or Bulks

Drohan is a left-hander with:

• four-seam
• sinker
• slider
• curve
• cutter
• changeup.

His biggest weakness is clear.

Sinker

.364 AVG
.568 SLG
.434 wOBA

Curveball

.354 AVG
.563 SLG
.445 wOBA.

His four-seam and slider are considerably better:

Four-seam

.171 AVG
32.3% K

Slider

.182 AVG
40.4% whiff
39% K.

So if Drohan gets meaningful innings, Tampa’s hitters who destroy sinkers and curves rise.

Aaron Ashby

If Milwaukee gets a lead, Ashby is the biggest problem.

His arsenal:

• Sinker — 52.2%
• Curve — 22.3%
• Changeup — 11.9%
• Slider — 11.9%

with a sinker averaging nearly:

98 mph.

He still has not allowed a run this postseason.

That means Tampa’s lefties may eventually have to deal with a high-velocity left-handed sinker/curve combination late.

Abner Uribe

Uribe is even simpler.

Sinker — 61.9%

Slider — 38.1%

The sinker averages:

98.8 mph

and reaches over:

101 mph.

So Tampa’s late-game right-handed bats cannot simply relax once the opener leaves.

The bullpen gets harder.

Yandy Díaz — RHB

This may be the safest Tampa hitter in the entire bullpen-game structure.

Yandy’s profile does not depend on one specific pitch.

He handles:

sinker

breaking balls

and has elite strike-zone control.

That matters when the pitcher is changing every one or two trips through the order.

He also doubled home Tampa’s only run in Game 3.

DFS Take

Best all-around Rays bat.

4.5★ CORE / ALL

Jonathan Aranda — LHB

Aranda becomes complicated.

If Milwaukee uses a right-handed opener or May for bulk:

I like him.

If Drohan/Harrison gets significant innings:

the matchup gets worse.

And Milwaukee can always use Ashby as a late-game left-handed hammer.

DFS Take

Good raw hitter.

But bullpen structure creates more pinch-hit and matchup risk than Games 1–3.

3.5★ GPP / ALL

Junior Caminero — RHB

Caminero is the Tampa hitter least affected by Milwaukee’s starter uncertainty.

He is going to stay in the game regardless of matchup.

And he has the power to beat:

May’s hard stuff

Drohan’s sinker

or a mistake from a reliever.

That matters.

DFS Take

Highest Rays power ceiling.

4.5★ CORE / GPP

Liam Hicks — LHB

Hicks has been one of my favorite pitch-profile players this series because of his elite contact against velocity.

But Game 4 is more complicated.

If Milwaukee goes:

RH opener → LHP bulk → Ashby

Hicks could see multiple same-side looks or become a pinch-hit candidate later.

DFS Take

Still playable.

But role certainty is lower.

3.0–3.5★ GPP

Chandler Simpson — LHB

Simpson’s contact and speed survive almost any pitcher type.

That is valuable in a bullpen game.

The drawback is the same as always:

very little power.

DFS Take

One of the safer lower-ceiling Rays.

3.5★ GPP / ALL

Victor Mesa Jr. — RHB

Mesa gets a boost simply because Milwaukee can throw multiple lefties.

If Drohan or Harrison gets bulk innings, his right-handed power becomes more interesting.

The strikeout floor remains ugly.

DFS Take

Large-field platoon ceiling.

3.0★ GPP

Jonny DeLuca — RHB

DeLuca may quietly be one of the better Game 4 tournament pieces.

He can stay in against either handedness and has shown strong damage against:

sinkers

and

cutters.

That would be especially valuable against Drohan or May.

DFS Take

Strong secondary Rays option.

3.5★ GPP

Richie Palacios — LHB

Palacios is the type of player who loses value in a bullpen-game environment.

Milwaukee has too many left-handed options to attack him later.

DFS Take

Correlation/salary only.

2.5★ LARGE-FIELD

Taylor Walls — Switch Hitter

Walls gains some value because he can change sides depending on Milwaukee’s pitcher.

That gives him a little more role stability than some Tampa lefties.

The ceiling remains low.

DFS Take

Useful cheap piece.

2.5–3.0★ GPP

Tampa vs. Milwaukee Bullpen Game — The Key

The question is not:

“Who matches the starter?”

It is:

“Who can survive four different pitchers?”

That favors:

Yandy Díaz

Junior Caminero

Chandler Simpson

Jonny DeLuca

because their role and matchup viability are less dependent on pitcher handedness.

It hurts:

Hicks

Palacios

Aranda

slightly because Milwaukee can manipulate platoon matchups later.

Starting Pitcher / Bulk Pitcher Rankings

Griffin Jax — 3.5★ GPP / ALL

Jax has legitimate strikeout weapons.

His changeup and curve are both excellent, and he has been in very good form overall.

But Milwaukee’s lineup is on fire.

Through three World Series games:

Chourio — .571

Contreras — .538

and Milwaukee has five regulars with an OPS over 1.000 in the series.

This is not a comfortable matchup.

DFS Take

Playable because of workload.

Not an SP I want to build around as a must-have.

Milwaukee Pitching

The Milwaukee pitcher ranking cannot be finalized until the opener is named.

If Dustin May starts:

3.5★ GPP

Best chance to supply meaningful starter-length innings.

If Shane Drohan starts:

2.5–3.0★ GPP

More likely opener/bulk hybrid with clear attackable pitches.

If Kyle Harrison starts:

2.5–3.0★ GPP

Role uncertainty matters more than raw talent.

Aaron Ashby:

3.0★ LARGE-FIELD

Potential multi-inning dominance and possibly the most valuable Milwaukee pitcher even if he does not start.

Bullpen Context

Milwaukee’s key relievers are completely rested.

Aaron Ashby

Abner Uribe

Trevor Megill

all watched Monday’s blowout rather than pitching.

That is a huge advantage.

Tampa is in the opposite situation strategically.

There is no tomorrow if they lose.

So Kevin Cash can use:

Nick Martinez

Bryan Baker

Cam Booser

Tyler Wells

as aggressively as necessary behind Jax.

That lowers the certainty of Jax working deep even if he pitches reasonably well.

My Favorite Brewers

Tier 1

Jackson Chourio — 4.5★ CORE / GPP

Massive current form and destroys Jax’s four-seam.

Christian Yelich — 4.0–4.5★ ALL / GPP

Left-handed damage profile and strong changeup/cutter results.

William Contreras — 4.0–4.5★ ALL / GPP

Elite current form, although Jax’s sweeper is a legitimate counter.

Tier 2

Brice Turang — 4.0★ ALL / GPP

Excellent sinker/cutter profile.

Jake Bauers — 4.0★ GPP

Huge upside against hard stuff, but Jax’s offspeed can erase him.

Tier 3

Sal Frelick — 3.5★ ALL / GPP

Garrett Mitchell — 3.0–3.5★ LARGE-FIELD

Cooper Pratt — 3.0–3.5★ GPP

David Hamilton — 3.0★ GPP

My Favorite Rays

Tier 1

Yandy Díaz — 4.5★ CORE / ALL

Most pitcher-proof Tampa hitter.

Junior Caminero — 4.5★ CORE / GPP

Best raw power and guaranteed role regardless of pitching changes.

Tier 2

Jonny DeLuca — 3.5★ GPP

Fits several possible Milwaukee pitcher types.

Chandler Simpson — 3.5★ GPP / ALL

Contact/speed survives the bullpen carousel.

Jonathan Aranda — 3.5★ GPP

Excellent hitter, but likely to see multiple lefties.

Tier 3

Liam Hicks — 3.0–3.5★ GPP

Victor Mesa Jr. — 3.0★ GPP

Taylor Walls — 2.5–3.0★ GPP

Richie Palacios — 2.5★ LARGE-FIELD

Overall Pitch-Profile Hitter Rankings

My current Game 4 board:

1. Jackson Chourio
2. Yandy Díaz
3. Junior Caminero
4. Christian Yelich
5. William Contreras
6. Brice Turang
7. Jake Bauers
8. Jonny DeLuca
9. Sal Frelick
10. Chandler Simpson

Overall Offensive Lean

Milwaukee > Tampa Bay

That is the clear lean.

Milwaukee is hitting everything right now.

The Brewers put together:

16 hits

10 runs

without hitting a home run in Game 3, and five of their regulars now own a World Series OPS over 1.000.

Griffin Jax is a good pitcher.

But this is not:

Misiorowski

or

Rasmussen

or

the postseason version of Peralta.

Milwaukee has real attack points against:

his four-seam

sinker

and several hitters who match those pitches extremely well.

Tampa’s situation is more difficult because the matchup can change every two plate appearances.

So:

MIL > TB offensively

The four hitters I am building the article around are:

Jackson Chourio

Yandy Díaz

Junior Caminero

Christian Yelich

And my favorite less-obvious tournament matchup is:

Jonny DeLuca

because he is one of the few Tampa secondary hitters who can remain viable whether Milwaukee uses May, Drohan, Harrison or a bullpen-heavy opener strategy.

Helmets up.