A solid main slate of 12 games awaits us tonight to kick off the weekend. While a lot of fans will be watching Game Four of the NBA Finals, there are some nice matchups here as well. Let’s dive in! The focus of this article is to sort through the myriad of options on larger slates and find not only some solid foundational plays but also some spots that could go overlooked. We focus on stacks that are solid for small-field and SE as well as overlooked spots for large-field GPPs, and we discuss players that have good past history vs. the pitchers they’re facing. Our Discord strategy rooms are incredibly active. Hop in and join the discussion!
FIVE DFS MLB Stacks
San Diego Padres (3.84 IRT)
Averaging nearly six runs a game over the past two weeks while hitting .293 (the best mark in the league). They are on the road, but they face Sean Manaea who pitched for them a couple of years ago and not been good either overall (4.30 ERA on the season) or especially recently, pitching to a 5.68 ERA in his last five starts. Start your stacks with Fernando Tatis, Jr., who just had his 17-game hitting streak snapped on Wednesday. Jurickson Profar (1.222 OPS in L7) and Jake Cronenworth (.346 average with two HR and seven RBI in L7) are worthwhile inclusions, as is Jackson Merrill, who has been showcasing his elite upside recently (two HR in their last game, including the walk-off winner, and an 1.134 OPS in L7) for cheap. Additionally, if he’s in the lineup, Kyle Higashioka has three HR in his last four games.
Jul 18, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Minnesota Twins shortstop Carlos Correa (4) waits for the pitch against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports
Minnesota Twins (5.18 IRT)
The Twins are in the midst of a little hot streak here, averaging over six runs a game in the last week (all of them coming in their last five games) and winning four of their last five, including the series opener last night. They get Mitch Spence this evening, and Spence has only started five games this season after being used as a reliever/opener. He’s been solid, but nothing to be overly concerned about, so I don’t mind taking some shots on a hot team. Oakland as a pitching staff has also been not good, having an ERA of 5.79 over the last week (the third worst mark in the league) Carlos Correa is hitting the cover off the ball recently (16-29 with three HR and seven RBI in L7), and I’m starting my lines with him. Royce Lewis (.391 BA in L7) and Byron Buxton (.333 in L7) are next on my order of preference, and Carlos Santana has been sneakily productive with eight RBI in his L7.
Arizona Diamondbacks (5.22 IRT)
It’s become common knowledge this season to load up on the opponents of the Chicago White Sox, and for good reason: they have one of the league’s worst lineups overall, and that extends to the pitching department. They rank second from the bottom in ERA (4.86), and their bullpen’s mark is right there as well (4.89); they’ve also given up the most long balls (91) in all of baseball. The matchup is great tonight for Arizona, who is hitting .282 as a team with 21 HR over the past two weeks while averaging close to seven runs a game in that time. Ketel Marte (1.135 OPS in L7) and Corbin Carroll (hitting .358 with five RBI and three SB in L7) are where I’m going to be heaviest; for some cheaper pieces, Kevin Newman is hitting .438 in his last five games and Jake McCarthy has an OBP of .400 in the last week (and he’s always a stolen base threat).
Jun 12, 2024; San Francisco, California, USA; San Francisco Giants outfielder Heliot Ramos (17) drives the ball into the infield during the eighth inning against the Houston Astros at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob Kupbens-USA TODAY Sports
San Francisco Giants (4.41 IRT)
Another matchup play here even though it’s in San Francisco, which isn’t traditionally the best hitters’ park. The Angels have an awful pitching staff (a 4.74 ERA on the season with a horrid 7.53 ERA and 1.70 WHIP over the past week). The Giants’ offense is middle of the pack on the season and Tyler Anderson has been solid overall with a 2.63 ERA, but he doesn’t strike out a ton of batters (just 53 in 82 innings). On a large slate, this could be a solid spot to take advantage of; in fact, our MLB Leverage Stacks tool rates them as the highest graded stack on the slate tonight on both sites as well as the top value play. Heliot Ramos (1.031 OPS with two HR and seven RBI in L7) and Wilmer Flores (.948 OPS with two HR and eight RBI) are quietly playing extremely well; Austin Slater and Mike Yastrzemski have been playing well lately as well. Definite tournament-only as Anderson has been good.
Pittsburgh Pirates (5.64 IRT)
We’re getting the Coors effect here, but at the same time, you can’t argue the stats: the Rockies’ pitching staff is the worst in baseball (a 5.48 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP on the season). Ryan Feltner goes tonight for Colorado, he of the 5.74 ERA, and the Pirates’ players are more than affordable, starting with Rowdy Tellez (1.069 OPS in L7 and who also is 5-9 with four 2B and two RBI against Feltner). Oneil Cruz (two HR and eight RBI with a .922 OPS in L7) and Bryan Reynolds (.310 BA with four 2B and two RBI in L7) are foundational pieces as well, and I’d mix in Nick Gonzalez (hitting .292 with three RBI in L7) for cheap.
For other popular plays, our revamped MLB Research Station has every stat you need to send your research to the next level!
Jun 17, 2023; San Diego, California, USA; Tampa Bay Rays first baseman Yandy Diaz (2) hits a double in the third inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: David Frerker-USA TODAY Sports
FOUR MLB BvP Matchups
Jose Abreu vs. Tarik Skubal: 7-16 with three 2B and five RBI
Yandy Diaz vs. Chris Sale: 6-16 with two 2B, a 3B, and five RBI
Mitch Haniger vs. Andrew Heaney: 8-25 with two 2B, three HR, and four RBI
Jurickson Profar vs. Sean Manaea: 7-21 with two 2B, a 3B, a HR, and three RBI
THREE MLB Value Plays
Mauricio Dubon ($3200 DK / $2500 FD): multi-positional eligibility on FD; seven-game hitting streak
Jose Iglesias ($2900 DK / $2400 FD): seven-game hitting streak (10-23 with a 1.002 OPS during)
Justin Henry-Malloy ($2300 DK / $2200 FD): 1.228 OPS in L7 (two HR and five RBI while hitting .313 during)
