10 games on the slate tonight. Let’s get into where to go and what chances we might be able to take. The focus of this article is to sort through the myriad of options on larger slates and find not only some solid foundational plays but also some spots that could go overlooked. We focus on stacks that are solid for small-field and SE as well as overlooked spots for large-field GPPs, and we discuss players that have good past history vs. the pitchers they’re facing. Come on in and join the discussion!
FIVE Stacks
Baltimore Orioles (4.80 IRT)
The Orioles are hitting .286 as a team over the last week with 11 HR, and they are 8-2 in their last 10 games. Their offense has been solid all season, ranking seventh in runs and second in HR. Tonight north of the border, Baltimore is a solid -175 favorite on the road as well, and Toronto has Trevor Richards going as an opener, which plays into the Orioles’ upside as the Blue Jays’ bullpen has the sixth-worst ERA in baseball. Five players (Gunnar Henderson, Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Santander, Austin Hays, and Ramon Urias) have each hit two round-trippers over the last week, so that’s where I’m starting; Mountcastle and Santander have good results against Richards as well.
Jun 20, 2023; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Baltimore Orioles right fielder Anthony Santander (25) celebrates after he hits a home run against the Tampa Bay Rays during the second inning at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Cincinnati Reds (5.65 IRT)
The Reds are in Coors and put up 13 runs in their first game of the series last night. They’re hitting very well lately; Cincinnati is averaging five and a half runs a game over the last week and are hitting.284 during that span. They also get Ty Blach tonight who has a 4.15 ERA and who has struck out just 17 batters in eight starts this season. The game also (as expected) has a 10.5 O/U, so runs should be there for the taking. Four Reds – Jonathan India (.400), Will Benson (.385), Jake Fraley (.348), and Jeimer Candelario (.310) – have played six or more games in the last week and are hitting over .300, and I don’t have an issue mixing and matching them.
Chicago Cubs (5.60 IRT)
This is more of a matchup play than anything. Chris Flexen of the White Sox has been absolutely ineffective this season (a 5.50 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP and 20.1% K-rate), and the Sox have a team ERA over a full run higher over the last week than the next closest team. While the Cubs’ offense has been stagnant (especially with runners in scoring position), not taking advantage of a plus matchup seems unwise. Dansby Swanson (7-11 with three XBH) has a great record against Flexen even though he’s slumping a little, so I’m starting my Cub exposure with him as this could be a solid turnaround spot; Seiya Suzuki (1.069 OPS in L7), Ian Happ (two HR and seven RBI in L7), and Cody Bellinger (.355 BA in L7) are good plays as well. I also don’t mind a little Pete Crow-Armstrong if he’s in the lineup; he’s only seen 10 AB in the last week, but he’s got three hits and two SB and could be a nice wraparound piece for your stacks. Consider for large-field tournaments.
May 22, 2023; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez (44) celebrates after hitting a grand slam home run during the sixth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Houston Astros (4.94 IRT)
The Astros have been underachieving all season, but tonight they find themselves in a nice spot against Andre Pallante, a pitcher who has made multiple appearances this season but who has made just one start. In its last seven games, Houston’s team average is just .221, but they’ve hit 13 home runs, and against a pitcher who hasn’t shown the ability to consistently go deep into games, I don’t mind some shots here in tournaments, especially given the upside that we all know Houston’s offense has. Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez are both on a tear offensively, and I want to be overweight on both of them in my MME tonight. If Kyle Tucker misses tonight, Chas McCormick is a solid piece as well with his stolen base upside.
St. Louis (4.23 IRT)
The Cardinals are intriguing tonight not just because of their offensive prowess, though they’ve been slightly better over the past couple of weeks than their season averages; no, it’s because of who they’re facing. Spencer Arrighetti has been one of the league’s worst starting pitchers this season, pitching to a near-6.00 ERA with a 1.65 WHIP. His past two starts (against Oakland and Seattle) have yielded solid results, but the overall body of work is just not there. The Cardinal power is also starting to heat up a bit, smacking 11 HR in their last six games. St. Louis is going to be a nicely priced stack, and I’m starting with Nolan Gorman (five HR and nine RBI in L7) as the centerpiece of my Cardinal exposure. Mix in Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, and Masyn Winn as secondary pieces.
Apr 16, 2022; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres left fielder Jurickson Profar bats during the seventh inning against the Atlanta Braves at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
FOUR BvP Matchups
Garrett Cooper vs. Max Fried: 5-16 with two 2B, two RBI, and three BB
Zach McKinstry vs. Dane Dunning: 5-11 with two 2B and two RBI
Jurickson Profar vs. Patrick Sandoval: 4-5 with two HR
Dansby Swanson vs. Chris Flexen: 7-11 with two 2B and a 3B
THREE Value Plays
Austin Hays ($2300 DK / $2200 FD): five hits in his last three games (including two HR)
Jarred Kelenic ($3200 DK / $2500 FD): five-game hitting streak; 2-2 vs. Crawford
Carson Kelly ($2800 DK / $2200 FD): seven-game hitting streak (.840 OPS); wraparound stack option
