Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. It’s Friday, and we are met with our usual full house of games. This time it’s split into four early games and an 11-game main slate, so while it’s not quite as big as some other weeks, we still have plenty of options to choose from. With that, there’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
Plenty of games means plenty of pitching options, and we have a nice assortment to choose from today. Senga, Kikuchi, and Canning all look like decent targets that could be useful in all formats, as all carry 500+ KSCOREs, though only the first two have solid Vegas support. Perez is in action, and he carries his usual high strikeout upside at the risk of giving up a few big hits, making him a good tournament and/or hedging option. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in!
Early games
Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs
We’ll kick things off with the early games, starting with the Diamondbacks and Cubs. Gallen and Taillon get there start here, and like yesterday, we’re greeted with a 7.5 total off the bat. That makes both pitchers interesting, so we’ll see which one can navigate the other’s offense better.
Diamondbacks 4.5 star plays – Carroll
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Marte/Walker
GPP note – Taillon is allowing good xwOBA to both sides, though it’s the lefties that are getting more power out of him as of late.
Cubs 4 star plays – Bellinger
Cubs 3.5 star plays – Happ, Swanson/Suzuki
GPP note – Gallen isn’t a typically a great target to attack, but he has been on a slide as of late. Now may be the time to attack, and it’s the lefties who are getting more power out of him.
St Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
Next up we have the Cardinals and Reds, with Rom and Abbott on the mound. We move up several paces to a 10.5 total, with both offenses clearing the 5.0 total mark. Both offenses are squarely in play here, but that doesn’t mean we can’t take some shots with Abbott, who offers some upside of his own.
Cardinals 4.5 star plays – Goldschmidt
Cardinals 4 star plays – Arenado, O’Neill/Contreras
GPP note – Abbott offers good strikeout upside but is also allowing good contact and power to both sides, so you can’t go wrong attacking or hedging here.
Reds 5 star plays – De La Cruz
Reds 4 star plays – Steer
GPP note – A fine spot against Rom, who has allowed good contact to both sides and some extra power to lefties.
Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers
The White Sox and Tigers are next, who will start Clevinger and Olson. We drop back down to reality with an 8.0 total here, which makes this game feel much less interesting than the prior one. Still, there ought to be at least a few useful pieces here, so we don’t need to overlook it completely.
White Sox 4 star plays – Robert, Vaughn
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Benintendi/Anderson
GPP note – Olson carries some strikeout upside and allows power to righties on occasion, making him another interesting hedge target.
Tigers 4 star plays – Carpenter, Torkelson/Baddo
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Cabrera
GPP note – Clevinger has been a bit tougher than what his salary would suggest, so I would be careful taking too big of stacks here.
Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays
We’ll wrap up the early games with the Mariners and Rays, with Kirby and Bradley on the mound. Another paltry 7.5 total, it only makes sense that we end right where we started, doesn’t it? At any rate, that should keep these bats a bit lower owned than what they might be normally, so there are plenty of contrarian moves at hand here.
Mariners 4 star plays – Rodriguez
Mariners 3.5 star plays – Crawford/Releigh, Hernandez
GPP note – Bradley looked sharp in his return, so be careful here. He allowed some power to a few righties, but not much else.
Rays 4 star plays – Arozarena, Lowe/Lowe
Rays 3.5 star plays – Diaz, Paredes
GPP note – Not a great spot here either, and righties are also getting the power advantage on occasion with Kirby.
Main slate
Milwaukee Brewers at New York Yankees
We’ll switch over to the main slate now, starting with the Brewers and Yankees. Rea and Severino will get the start here, along with a 9.0 total. This marks the first of a few games with some potential weather issues, so be sure to keep an eye on things as we approach lock.
Brewers 4.5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Contreras/Adames, Santana/Frelick
GPP note – Severino continues to be a bit hit or miss (mostly miss), as he’s allowing good contact and power to both sides.
Yankees 5 star plays – Judge
Yankees 4 star plays – Torres/Stanton, LeMahieu
GPP note – Rea gives up plenty of power to both sides of the plate, so stacks of any size and any hard are good to go here.
Watching the weather is half the battle when it comes to MLB DFS. The DFS Army Weather Station has you covered, from games that have delay and postponement potential to games that could have significant winds that will play a role in selecting a team to stack or a pitcher to use.
Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies
Next up we’ve got the Marlins and Phillies, with Perez and Sanchez on the hill. A 9.0 total, this game has the same weather issues as the previous games, so once again, keep an eye on things. A delay would surely put a damper on the ceiling that Perez possess, so it would be a shame if that were to happen.
Marlins 4 star plays – Chisholm/Arraez
Marlins 3.5 star plays – Burger/Bell
GPP note – Righties have the power advantage against Sanchez, though he does allow some to lefties on occasion, too.
Phillies 4.5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 4 star plays – Schwarber, Turner/Castellanos/Stott
GPP note – Perez is a prime hedging target, as he can post up a 10+ strikeout performance but may also allow a few home runs instead.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals
Sheehan and the Dodgers will take on Gore and the Nationals next, along with a 9.5 total. The third game with some possible weather concerns, there’s a decent chance at a delay here as well, though these starters probably don’t have quite the same upside that Perez does. Still, it’ll be worth keeping an eye on things just in case.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Betts
Dodgers 4 star plays – Martinez/Smith, Freeman/Taylor
GPP note – A solid spot overall for the righties, though Gore has been quite strict to lefties.
Nationals 4 star plays – Abrams
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Thomas/Meneses
GPP note – Sheehan does allow some big hits here and there but doesn’t tend to outright implode, so smaller stacks may be best here.
Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays
We’ll head across the border for our next matchup, as Snider and my Royals will take on Kikuchi and the Blue Jays. A modest 8.5 total, Vegas has the home team down as the heavy favorites here, which puts quite a low total on KC. Hopefully my guys can overcome the odds and send some joy our way after last night!
Royals 4 star plays – Witt, Perez
Royals 3.5 star plays – Olivares/Garcia
GPP note – Kikuchi’s trends and Vegas’ insight says that this won’t be a very good spot to go to, and they’re probably right. However, it may be worth running a few contrarian stacks in case he gets lit up here.
Blue Jays 4.5 star plays – Guerrero, Springer
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Merrifield
GPP note – There’s not much to go off of here, but I don’t see Snider and the bullpen holding these bats down a whole lot. Stacks of any size should be just fine to use.
Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox
Bradish and the Orioles will take on Houck and the Red Sox next, and with them, a healthy 10.0 total. Vegas has this one split mostly down the middle, with just a slight nod to the visitors. This game looks mighty tempting on paper, so expect there to be a good amount of ownership here. That doesn’t mean we can’t take some swings with Bradish though, as he carries some upside of his own.
Orioles 4.5 star plays – Henderson
Orioles 4 star plays – Santander, Rutschman/Mountcastle, Mullins
GPP note – Houck has been okay but certainly not dominant in his return, so medium-sized or full stacks should be useful. Lefties have the statcast advantage against him.
Red Sox 4 star plays – Devers
Red Sox 3.5 star plays – Verdugo/Casas/Yoshida
GPP note – Bradish has been quite strict and isn’t allowing much power, so I would act a little bearish here as opposed to bullish.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves
We get another appetizing game up next (one of the teams that is), as the Pirates will take on the Braves. Keller and Elder get the start here, along with a 9.5 total. As expected, Atlanta is the heavy favorite here, and they approach a 6.0 total to start with. Expect plenty of ownership with them as well, but seeing as both pitchers have flashed upside, consider taking some shares of them today as well.
Pirates 4 star plays – Reynolds
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Hayes/Suwinski
GPP note – Elder allows some contact and power to lefties on occasion and his strikeout rate isn’t as high as it could be, so some small or medium-sized stacks could be used.
Braves 4.5 star plays – Acuna/Olson
Braves 4 star plays – Albies/Riley/Ozuna, Rosario
GPP note – Keller can hold his own and may be able to navigate the lineup without getting completely blown up, so it may not be a bad idea to hedge lineups between different contests or sites, just in case this offense is a little quiet against him.
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Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers
We get another lopsided looking game next, as Blackburn and the Athletics will take on Montgomery and the Rangers. An 8.5 total, Texas is heavily favored here, and Oakland barely passes the 3.0 total mark. While I don’t see Oakland sneaking a W, I could see Blackburn keeping it a little closer than what Vegas is predicting, so we’ll see if he’s up to the task.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Rooker, Noda
GPP note – As indicated by the sub 3.0 total, this isn’t a good spot at all, so tread lightly.
Rangers 4.5 star plays – Seager
Rangers 4 star plays – Garver/Semien/Lowe
GPP note – Lots of love from Vegas here, so expect plenty of ownership. However, Blackburn can hold his own and tends to limit damage to just a few batters, so you could treat this offense like how I mentioned for Atlanta.
New York Mets at Minnesota Twins
Next up we have Senga and the Mets taking on Keuchel and the Twins, along with a 9.0 total. It’s interesting to see that Vegas has this game so closely matched, considering the pitching matchup and the names that New York has on their offense. Baseball sure is a funny game, isn’t it?
Mets 5 star plays – Lindor/Alonso
Mets 4 star plays – Nimmo
GPP note – While Keuchel’s strikeouts remain on the low side, he does a good job of avoiding the long ball, so smaller stacks might actually be more beneficial than larger ones.
Twins 4 star plays – Polanco
Twins 3.5 star plays – Julien, Correa/Kepler
GPP note – Senga does allow the occasional homer, but overall isn’t a great target to attack, so consider one-offs or mini-stacks here.
San Diego Padres at Houston Astros
One last midwestern game awaits us, as the Padres and Astros will face off with Snell and Brown on the mound. An 8.5 total, Vegas likes the home team just ever so slightly, though I could see this one going either way, especially if Snell has anything to say about it.
Padres 4.5 star plays – Soto
Padres 4 star plays – Tatis/Machado, Bogaerts
GPP note – Brown seems to be rebounding, but prior to his previous two starts, he was allowing all sorts of contact and power to both sides of the plate. The sub-4.0 total may keep ownership down here, so this could be a decent contrarian spot.
Astros 4 star plays – Altuve/Bregman, Alvarez/Tucker
Astros 3.5 star plays – Pena, Moldonado
GPP note – This is a fine hedging option if you’re looking to pay up to be contrarian, as both sides offer plenty of upside.
Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angels
We’ll head out west for our two late night games, starting with the Guardians and Angels. Allen and Canning will get there start here, along with an 8.5 total. Things look pretty straight forward here, though I could see this game going the under. That would make both pitchers interesting, though I would say that Canning has the edge in upside.
Guardians 4 star plays – Ramirez, Naylor
Guardians 3.5 star plays – Kwan, Laureano
GPP note – Canning offers some legitimate strikeout upside at the cost of allowing above-average power to both sides, so if you haven’t hedged anywhere else, you could do so here.
Angels 4 star plays – Drury
Angels 3.5 star plays – Grichuk
GPP note – Same idea as above, though Allen offers a little less strikeout upside and has been strict to lefties.
Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants
And finally, we’ll wrap things up with the Rockies and Giants, who will start Blach and Harrison. We move down to an 8.0 total, which makes these late-night games less of a hammer and more of a rubber mallet, but perhaps some surprises will be in store.
Rockies 4 star plays – Tovar
Rockies 3.5 star plays – Blackmon/McMahon, Montero
GPP note – Harrison had an 11-strikeout debut followed by a 4-home run shelling, so who knows what we’ll get here. Vegas likes him better than the Colorado offense, but so will everybody else, so perhaps some contrarian stacks could be utilized.
Giants 4 star plays – Flores/Estrada, Haniger
Giants 3.5 star plays – Davis
GPP note – For the most part, Blach doesn’t threaten with dominant stuff and allows good power to lefties, so you can shuffle some of them in with any righties you take.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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Aug 15, 2023; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays left fielder Whit Merrifield (15) jokes around with center fielder Daulton Varsho (25) and right fielder George Springer (4) before a game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
