Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We get a lone six-game slate today, which is a little different than what we normally see on a Thursday. However, those of you who really enjoy the smallest of slates are still in luck, as there’s always the option to play the night slate or some showdowns. It’s nice to have options! Anyway, there’s plenty to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
Six games means that we don’t have a ton of options today, but we do at least have some good ones. Fried and Canning both profile well in their matchups and won’t break the bank, so they could be useful for all formats. There are others with some decent strikeout upside, suck as Pepiot and Rodon, so they could be useful for tournament use. On the flip side, Wainwright is in a spot to get rocked out of town in a hurry, so it would be hard to recommend doing anything but attack him today. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays
We’ll kick things off with the Mariners and Rays, with Castillo and Littell as the starters. A rather uninspiring 7.5 total awaits us, and seeing that Vegas has this one split quite evenly, it’s hard to really love either offense here. Perhaps the bats will at least carry lower ownership than usual?
Mariners 5 star plays – Rodriguez
Mariners 4 star plays – Crawford/Raleigh, Hernandez
GPP note – Not a ton of Vegas love here, though Littell does allow good power to both sides and these bats are hitting righties well.
Rays 4 star plays – Arozarena, Lowe/Lowe
Rays 3.5 star plays – Diaz
GPP note – Tough spot against Castillo, but he is allowing some decent power to lefties. It’s not the worst idea to hedge here since there is plenty of upside on both sides of this matchup.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins
Next up we have the Dodgers and Marlins, with Pepiot and Garrett on the mound. We move up to an 8.5 total here, and once again Vegas has this one split mostly down the middle, though with just a slight nod to the visitors. While I do think that LA will take the W, I don’t know that it’ll be quite as close as what they’re saying, as I think that Pepiot can hold down the fort in this matchup.
Dodgers 4.5 star plays – Betts, Freeman
Dodgers 4 star plays – Smith, Muncy/Rosario
GPP note – A decent spot overall, Garrett is allowing good xwOBA to both sides though only some power to righties. xwOBA can turn into some big hits, and he’s not striking out batters in droves, so stacking is in play as usual with these guys.
Marlins 4 star plays – Chisholm/Arraez
Marlins 3.5 star plays – Burger/Bell
GPP note – Pepiot can hold his own and has been quite strict to lefties, but righties have been getting some good contact and power out of him.
Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees
Rodriguez and the Tigers will take on Rodon and the Yankees next, along with an 8.0 total. New York gets a favorable nod from Vegas, as they’re favored by a little more than a run. They may be some slight weather concerns here, so be sure to keep an eye on things to see if anything develops.
Tigers 4 star plays – Torkelson
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Cabrera, Rogers
GPP note – Rodon is allowing good power to both sides, but the statcast numbers favor the lefties against him in recent performances.
Yankees 4.5 star plays – Judge
Yankees 4 star plays – Torres/Stanton, Volpe/LeMahieu
GPP note – Traditional splits tend to work best against Rodriguez, so you don’t have to get wild here.
Watching the weather is half the battle when it comes to MLB DFS. The DFS Army Weather Station has you covered, from games that have delay and postponement potential to games that could have significant winds that will play a role in selecting a team to stack or a pitcher to use.
St Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves
Moving right along, Wainwright and the Cardinals will take on Fried and the Braves next. A 10.0 total, this is basically today’s Coors game, as we have a stout 6.5+ run total for Atlanta. Things don’t look as hot for the visitors though, so while this game will have plenty of eyes on it, they won’t really be looking at St Louis.
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado
Cardinals 3.5 star plays – Contreras/Edman, O’Neill/Gorman
GPP note – Fried has been very tough, making this a difficult spot to get excited about. You could always hedge in case he drops a dud, but I think that small or medium-sized stacks would be best.
Braves 5 star plays – Acuna/Olson
Braves 4 star plays – Albies/Riley/Ozuna/Rosario
GPP note – Best matchup on the slate, so expect tons of ownership on this short slate. Wrap-around stacks may help with ownership, as would some funky secondary stacks.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs
Nelson and the Diamondbacks will take on Assad and the Cubs next, and with them, we get an 8.5 total. The home team is favored again here, this time by a little more than one run. Overall, I would say that I agree, especially if Assad can keep doing what he’s done his last couple of starts.
Diamondbacks 4.5 star plays – Carroll
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Marte/Pham/Walker
GPP note – Assad allows some power to lefties, so while some of these bats profile well, he can also hold his own, so some light hedging isn’t the worst way you could go today.
Cubs 4.5 star plays – Bellinger
Cubs 4 star plays – Happ/Hoerner, Swanson/Suzuki
GPP note – Solid spot overall, as Nelson allows good contact and power to both sides of the plate.
Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angels
We’ll wrap up this short day with the Guardians and Angels, with Quantrill and Canning on the mound. I don’t have any Vega insight here, though it’ll be interesting to see what they say. With no Ohtani or Trout, you’d think that Cleveland would have the upper hand easily. However, if Quantrill can’t get his act together, we may see some fireworks from the Angels yet.
Guardians 4 star plays – Ramirez, Naylor
Guardians 3.5 star plays – Kwan/Calhoun/Laureano
GPP note – Canning allows some power here and there but otherwise he’s been strict with a solid strikeout rate, so be careful with big stacks.
Angels 4 star plays – Moustakas/Moniak, Rengifo/Drury
Angels 3.5 star plays – O’Hoppe/Escobar
GPP note – Quantrill has had a rough season and is a fine target to attack, so don’t shy away just because the two big guns aren’t in the lineup.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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Sep 6, 2023; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Marlins center fielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. (2) rounds the bases after hitting a home run against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the fifth inning at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports
