Happy Labor Day everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We get both a medium and small-sized slate to work with today, which ought to be enough to hold most of us over until we get a bigger one tomorrow. Either way, there’s plenty to cover as we wind down the holiday weekend, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We get a decent range of options today, and there are four pitchers who top the 500 KSCORE mark on the main slate. One of them is Kelly, who will probably serve as a good all-around option. For tournament considerations, Ragans is still fairly inexpensive and has been on a roll lately, so perhaps he can keep things going today. Berrios has good Vegas support, but he’s been a bit up-and-down as of late, so it’ll be interesting to see if he can rebound today. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Main slate
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals
We’ll kick things off with the White Sox and my Royals, with Scholtens and Ragans on the mound. Right away we are met with a 9.5 total, though with how Ragans has looked as of late, I could see this one seeing the under. We’ll see if he can keep things going, because if he does, he’ll help somebody bring home some money today.
White Sox 4 star plays – Robert
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Jimenez/Anderson, Vaughn
GPP note – Ragans has been throwing hot fire as of late, so if you plan to attack him, it might not be a bad idea to hedge.
Royals 4.5 star plays – Witt
Royals 4 star plays – Perez, Melendez
GPP note – Pretty good spot for these bats and they’re inexpensive to boot. Righties have the statcast advantage.
Sam Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs
Next up we have the Giants and Cubs, with Webb and Steele on the mound. A 9.0 total awaits this game, with the home team getting a slight nod from Vegas. While I agree with them on that last bit, I’m not sure I like the total, as I think that they’ll go the under here.
Giants 4 star plays – Estrada/Flores
Giants 3.5 star plays – Haniger, Bailey
GPP note – Not the best spot on the day, though Steele does allow occasional power to lefties.
Cubs 4 star plays – Bellinger, Happ
Cubs 3.5 star plays – Suzuki/Hoerner
GPP note – Webb is allowing some xwOBA to righties but not a whole lot, so I’m not bullish on the total that Vegas is giving these bats.
Houston Astros at Texas Rangers
We get our Texas series game next, as the Astros and Rangers will face off with France and Heaney getting the start. A 9.5 total, that seems more realistic for these squads against these starters, so I don’t see this total dropping throughout the day.
Astros 4.5 star plays – Altuve/Bregman
Astros 4 star plays – Alvarez/Tucker
GPP note – Heaney is allowing decent contact to lefties with some extra power to righties, so both hands are in play here.
Rangers 5 star plays – Seager
Rangers 4 star plays – Semien/Lowe, Garcia/Garver
GPP note – There are more reverse splits going on here, as France is allowing much more contact and power to righties than he is to lefties.
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Toronto Blue Jays at Oakland Athletics
We’ll head out west for our next two games, the first being between the Blue Jays and Athletics. Berrios and Waldichuk get the start here, along with an 8.5 total. The visitors are the heavy favorites, which I suppose shouldn’t be a big surprise, though if I had to pick one team to spoil the fun today, it would be the A’s. We’ll see if they come through, but I like their chances.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 4 star plays –Schneider/Merrifield
GPP note – Traditional splits look to be the way to go here, as Waldchuk is allowing much more xwOBA and ISO to righties than he is to lefties.
Athletics 4 star plays – Rooker/Brown
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Gelof/Kemp
GPP note – Berrios is allowing good power to both sides, though slightly more to lefties. With his recent volatility, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to go contrarian or hedge here.
Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks
Next up we have Lambert and the Rockies set to take on Kelly and the Diamondbacks, along with another 8.5 total. We get another heavy favorite here, though this time it’s the home team. I don’t see Colorado having an upset performance here, though I supose that anything can happen.
Rockies 4 star plays – Blackmon/McMahon
Rockies 3.5 star plays – Tovar, Toglia
GPP note – Not a good spot at all, though Kelly is allowing moderate power to both sides, making small contrarian stacks viable.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – Carroll
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Marte/Walker, Moreno
GPP note – One of the best spots on the day, so expect some fireworks to go with that chalk.
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
We’ll hop in a plane and head back to the other side of the country for our next game (all this back and forth isn’t good on my transmission), as the Red Sox will take on the Rays. Bello and Civale will get the start here, as we move down to an 8.0 total. This game is split pretty close down the middle, meaning that Vegas isn’t expecting a big day out of either offense. That’s certainly no fun for us, but at least both pitchers will be worth an extra look.
Red Sox 4 star plays – Devers
Red Sox 3.5 star plays – Verdugo/Yoshida, Turner/Casas
GPP note – Tough spot for these bats, though Civale is allowing moderate wOBA to lefties with the occasional homer allowed.
Rays 4.5 star plays – Arozarena
Rays 4 star plays – Lowe/Lowe, Diaz
GPP note – Bello is allowing good power to both sides with a bit of a reduced strikeout rate, so stacks of any size can be utilized here.
Seattle Mariners at Cincinnati Reds
We’ll round out the main slate with the Mariners and Reds, with Woo and Antone as the starters. We get the highest total on the day here, a whopping 10.0, and Vegas likes both teams to have some fun here. With big totals comes big ownership, so you’ll want to grab some pieces of this one for your cash games (and it’ll probably be unavoidable to have some exposure here for your tournaments, too).
Mariners 5 star plays – Rodriguez
Mariners 4 star plays – Crawford/Hernandez/Raleigh/Suarez
GPP note – Tons of Vegas support and these guys are smashing righties, so you can go after Antone and the bullpen however you see fit.
Reds 4.5 star plays – De La Cruz
Reds 4 star plays – Fraley, Friedl
GPP note – Vegas doesn’t mind these bats, though Woo can certainly hold his own. It might not be a bad idea to hedge some here since he does offer plenty of upside and should see reduced ownership in this spot.
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Late games
Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians
We’ll switch over to the late games now, starting with the Twins and Guardians. Lopez and Giolito will get the start here, as we move from the highest total of the day down to the lowest, a meager 7.0. The visitors are the moderate favorites here, and all things considered, I would agree with that.
Twins 4.5 star plays – Polanco
Twins 4 star plays – Julien/Kepler, Correa
GPP note – Giolito has been all over the place, so attacking and/or hedging here would be a good idea. Both hands are in play as he’s allowing equally good contact and power to both sides.
Guardians 4 star plays – Ramirez
Guardians 3.5 star plays – Naylor/Kwan, Laureano
GPP note – Lopez isn’t the best of targets to attack on the day, but he is allowing moderate contact and power to lefties.
Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates
Next up we’ll have Burnes and the Brewers set to take on Ortiz and the Pirates. An 8.5 total, Vegas has Milwaukee as the heavy favorites, and once again, I can’t help but agree with them. I suppose there could be a handful of useful pieces of the Pittsburgh lineup, but this doesn’t look like the game for them to go off the rails and upset the day.
Brewers 4.5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Santana/Contreras, Tellez
GPP note – Ortiz is tough to predict as he’s been all over the map, so it may be a good idea to attack with big stacks when you go here.
Pirates 4 star plays – Reynolds
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Hayes/McCutchen, Bae/Suwinski
GPP note – A mostly tough spot, though Burnes does allow some decent contact and power to righties on occasion.
Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres
We’ll head back out to the west coast for our final two games, starting with the Phillies and Padres. Walker and Hill get the start here, along with a 9.0 total. Vegas has this one split down the middle, though me personally, I like Philadelphia here. We’ll see how that goes, but that’s where I’m planting my flag.
Phillies 4.5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 4 star plays – Turner/Castellanos, Schwarber/Bohm
GPP note – Hill is no stranger to allowing a homer or two (or three), so be sure to take some swings here (pun definitely intended).
Padres 5 star plays – Soto
Padres 4 star plays – Tatis/Machado/Bogaerts
GPP note – Walker is allowing moderate xwOBA to both sides and lefties are getting some decent power out of him, some both hands are in play here.
Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels
We’ll wrap up this Labor Day with the Orioles and Angels, with Rodriguez and Rosenberg on the mound. Another 9.0 total, Vegas has the visitors as strong favorites, and this is another spot that I agree with them. Sure, Ohtani will probably get his, but I think that Rodriguez can navigate the rest of the lineup without too much trouble.
Orioles 4.5 star plays – Rutschman
Orioles 4 star plays – Mountcastle/Santander
GPP note – There’s not a ton to go off against Rosenberg, but in his previous games he’s allowed good xwOBA to both sides.
Angels 5 star plays – Ohtani
Angels 4 star plays – Moustakas/Moniak
GPP note – Rodriguez is doing a good job of limiting power, but if nothing else, Ohtani is in play as usual.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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Sep 3, 2023; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks right fielder Corbin Carroll (7) waits on deck against the Baltimore Orioles during the fifth inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
