Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We head into our intermission day, and we’ll get a couple of early games followed by a seven-game main slate. This will be the bigger of the two remaining Thursday main slates for the season, so be sure you get in on the action along with your NFL lineups!
A look at pitchers
We have several good options for this medium-sized slate, starting with Fried and Skubal as potential all-purpose options. Though they are both on the road, they do have solid Vegas support and should see enough support from their offenses (especially the former) to snag the win. Aside from them, there are five other pitchers with KSCOREs north of the 500 mark, such as Cole and Sheehan. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early games
Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays
We’ll kick things off with the early games, starting with the Angels and Rays. Canning and Eflin get the start here, along with a 7.5 total. Vegas has the home team as the heavy favorite here, and it’s awfully hard to argue against that. If Canning shows up, perhaps this one can be closer than expected, but it’s hard to see them pulling off the upset.
Angels 5 star plays – none
Angels 3.5 star plays – Walsh, Drury
GPP note – Rough spot for the Angels, though they should at least see low ownership with this sub-3.0 implied total.
Rays 4.5 star plays – Arozarena
Rays 4 star plays – Lowe/Lowe, Diaz/Paredes
GPP note – A bit of a slightly below-average spot, though Canning is allowing good contact and power to righties here and there.
Milwaukee Brewers at St Louis Cardinals
Miley and Mikolas will face off next, as the Brewers and Cardinals will square off. An 8.5 total, Vegas has this one split right down the middle, which does surprise me a little. While I can see both sides being competitive, I see the Brewers taking the W by at least a couple of runs, so we’ll see if they can live up to my hype or not.
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Santana, Contreras
GPP note – This looks to be a much better spot than what Vegas is claiming, as Mikolas’ strikeout rate is quite low and he’s allowing good contact and power to both sides of the plate.
Cardinals 5 star plays – Goldschmidt
Cardinals 4 star plays – Arenado, Edman
GPP note – For the most part this should be a good spot for these guys to do some damage, though hedging would be a good idea as they’re no stranger to blanking and Miley has the random big game in him.
Watching the weather is half the battle when it comes to MLB DFS. The DFS Army Weather Station has you covered, from games that have delay and postponement potential to games that could have significant winds that will play a role in selecting a team to stack or a pitcher to use.
Main slate
Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees
It’s time for the main slate now, starting with the Blue Jays and Yankees. Berrios and Cole will get the start here, along with a slate-low 7.5 total. New York gets the nod here, and this time I do agree with them. It’s hard to see this game getting out of hand, but if they do, at least neither side will carry a whole lot of exposure (the offenses, at least).
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Springer
Blue Jays 3.5 star plays – Bichette/Schneider
GPP note – Tough spot for this offense, though Cole does allow some random power to righties.
Yankees 4.5 star plays – Judge
Yankees 4 star plays – Torres/Stanton
GPP note – An okay spot overall, Berrios carries decent strikeout upside but is allowing good contact and power to lefties.
Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals
The Braves and Nationals are up next, with Fried and Irvin on the mound. A 9.0 total, Vegas unsurprisingly has Atlanta marked down as the heavy favorite, and it’s really hard to see things going much differently here. An implied total nearing 6.0 at a non-Coors game is quite high, so expect tons of ownership here.
Braves 5 star plays – Acuna/Olson
Braves 4 star plays – Albies/Riley, Ozuna
GPP note – Lefties get the statcast advantage, though that probably doesn’t really matter in this matchup anyway.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Thomas, Abrams/Meneses
GPP note – Tough spot and Fried isn’t allowing a ton of power, so contrarian stacks may be pretty limited here.
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
Next up we have the Mets and Phillies, with Peterson and Suarez on the mound. Another 9.0 total, this one is a little closer than the previous game, though not by a whole lot. Philly is in a fine spot as expected, though I could see the Mets going over their sub-4.0 implied total.
Mets 4.5 star plays – Lindor/Alonso
Mets 4 star plays – Alvarez/Mauricio
GPP note – An okay spot for the righties, as Suarez is allowing moderate xwOBA and power to them.
Phillies 5 star plays – Harper, Turner
Phillies 4 star plays – Castellanos/Bohm, Schwarber/Realmuto
GPP note – Good spot for the righties here too, but considering the implied total difference, expect more ownership here.
Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians
Rodriguez and the Orioles will take on Gaddis and the Guardians next, and while it’s too early for any Vegas insight, I’m going to assume that they’ll have Baltimore as the moderate to heavy favorites here. They’re in a great spot against Gaddis, so I expect some fireworks here.
Orioles 4.5 star plays – Henderson, Rutschman
Orioles 4 star plays – Santander, O’Hearn/Mullins
GPP note – Gaddis doesn’t offer much in terms of strikeout upside and is allowing good contact and power, making him a good target to attack from either side.
Guardians 4 star plays – Ramirez, Naylor
Guardians 3.5 star plays – Kwan, Gimenez
GPP note – Not the best spot on the day, though Rodriguez allows some power to lefties on occasion.
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Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs
We have some weather concerns for our next matchup, which will be between the Pirates and Cubs. Oviedo and Hendricks will get the start here, along with an 8.5 total. Whether they play or not, it’s hard to get overly excited about Pittsburgh here, as Hendricks tends to be a thorn in our sides when picking offenses and pitchers alike. If they do play as scheduled, the Chicago offense should at least be useful.
Pirates 4 star plays – Reynolds/Hayes
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Suwinski
GPP note – Between the weather and Hendricks being a DFS mood killer, this doesn’t seem like a great spot to attack.
Cubs 4.5 star plays – Bellinger
Cubs 4 star plays – Happ/Hoerner, Swanson/Suzuki
GPP note – Oviedo is allowing good xwOBA to both sides and moderate power to lefties, so both hands are in play if the weather holds out.
Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics
We’ll head out west for our final two games, starting with the Tigers and Athletics. Another slate-low 7.5 total, Vegas likes the visitors here, and I must say that I do too. I think that they’ll take this game easily and could be more useful to us than their implied total suggests. As for Oakland, probably not, but they are at least inexpensive.
Tigers 4 star plays – Carpenter, Torkelson
Tigers 3.5 star plays – McKinstry, Cabrera/Baddoo
GPP note – Medina is allowing good contact and power to both sides of the plate, making this a good spot for this less expensive offense to do some damage.
Athletics 4 star plays – Rooker
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Noda/Gelof
GPP note – Tough matchup for these bats, making this another contrarian spot that may not have much to offer.
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers
We’ll wrap up the day with the Giants and Dodgers, with Harrison and Sheehan on the mound. A 9.0 total, LA gets the nod here, which shouldn’t be too much of a surprise. However, for those that like hedging, I think an argument could be made to do that with either side, as both starters carry both allowed power and strikeout upside.
Giants 4 star plays – Yastrzemski/Pederson
Giants 3.5 star plays – Flores, Conforto/Estrada
GPP note – Sheehan allows good power to both sides but also carries plenty of strikeout upside, so this could be a spot to do some hedge work.
Dodgers 4.5 star plays – Betts/Freeman
Dodgers 4 star plays – Martinez/Smith
GPP note – Basically the same as above, so don’t be afraid to take Harrison in some lineups.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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Sep 19, 2023; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Rays left fielder Randy Arozarena (56) celebrates a home run against the Los Angeles Angels during the first inning at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports
