Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We head into the final month of the regular season today, and we’re met with a juicy 14-game slate. September baseball tends to bring out the best and worst of teams, so depending on where they are in the playoff race, you can get an idea of what to expect out of them. Names you’ve never seen before and late scratches will become more common, so be sure to pay a little extra attention to the news feed this month. At any rate, there’s a lot to cover for tonight, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We have a lot of options today, from studs to gas cans and everything in between. A whopping twelve pitchers have KSCOREs north of 500, with two of them topping the 600+ mark (Peralta and Scherzer, as you could imagine). There’s bound to be a plethora of strikeouts tonight, so we’ll need to make sure to nail our pitching selection in all formats. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in!
Main slate
Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals
We’ll kick things off with the Marlins and Nationals, with Perez and Irvin on the mound. The 8.5 total doesn’t make this game stand out too awfully much, though there are some pieces I like here, though mostly from the visitor’s side. Perez is the biggest piece, and he’s not even all that expensive considering his matchup.
Marlins 4.5 star plays – Arraez
Marlins 4 star plays – Soler/Burger/Chisholm, Bell
GPP note – Lefties have the statcast advantage, though Irvin is allowing moderate power to righties on occasion.
Nationals 4 star plays – Abrams
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Thomas/Meneses, Ruiz
GPP note – Perez allows some power here and there (to both sides) but also carries plenty of strikeout upside, so you can hedge here if you’re looking for a way to be different (or just fade these guys and take extra shares of him).
Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians
Next up we have the Rays and Guardians, with Glasnow and Quantrill as the starters. We get a few games with 7.x totals today, and the 7.5 total here marks the first of them. That’s mostly due to Cleveland’s low total against Glasnow, which helps to make Tampa Bay the favorite here.
Rays 5 star plays – Arozarena
Rays 4 star plays – Lowe/Lowe, Diaz/Paredes
GPP note – Quantrill struggled a lot before his time off, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to attack him here in case he’s still got the jitters.
Guardians 4 star plays – Ramirez
Guardians 3.5 star plays – Gimenez, Kwan/Calhoun
GPP note – Bad spot against Glasnow, but you could always try going contrarian. Righties have a slight xwOBA advantage against him, but it’s not by much.
Seattle Mariners at New York Mets
Gilbert and the Mariners will take on Senga and the Mets next, as we move down to a slate-low 7.0 total. Vegas has the visitors as only slight favorites here, which means both offenses face low totals. That puts both pitchers in play and should help to lower the ownership of the bats, so perhaps some of them can come through today.
Mariners 4 star plays – Rodriguez
Mariners 3.5 star plays – Crawford, Suarez/Raleigh/Hernandez/France
GPP note – Not the most desirable matchup against Senga, though these bats are hitting righties very well. Hedging here is not a bad idea.
Mets 4 star plays – Lindor/Alonso
Mets 3.5 star plays – Nimmo/McNeil
GPP note – Gilbert isn’t usually a great target to attack, though he does allow decent power to both sides of the plate.
Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers
The Twins will take on the Rangers next, with Ryan and Scherzer to get the start. We move all the way up to an 8.0 total for this one with the home team as the favorites. Hopefully the action here won’t be as dry as my sarcasm was, though that may just depend on if Scherzer grabs 10+ strikeouts or gives up 3+ home runs.
Twins 4 star plays – Polanco, Correa
Twins 3.5 star plays – Kepler/Julien, Gallo
GPP note – It’s Max, so you can either fade these guys or test your luck with contrarian stacks and/or hedging, hoping that they take advantage of the heat he throws.
Rangers 4.5 star plays – Seager
Rangers 4 star plays – Lowe, Semien/Garcia, Garver/Jankowski
GPP note – Ryan has allowed a decent chunk of power to both sides recently, so it’s not a bad idea to take some swings at him again.
Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers
We have one more game with a low total to get through, this one between the Phillies and Brewers. Wheeler and Peralta will get the start for the 7.5 total Vegas is giving us, and they have it split right down the middle. We’ll have to make a call one way or the other, so I’m going to go with the visitors taking the W for this one.
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper
Phillies 3.5 star plays – Schwarber, Turner/Castellanos/Stott
GPP note – Another bad spot on the day, Peralta carries lots of strikeout upside and only allows moderate power to righties on occasion.
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 3.5 star plays – Tellez, Contreras/Santana/Adames
GPP note – The tough spots continue, as Wheeler is another that allows minimal power while carrying plenty of strikeout upside.
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Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox
Up next, we have Rodriguez and the Tigers set to take on Toussaint and the White Sox, along with an 8.5 total. Vegas has the Tigers as the favorites, which is a little funny to me as I am an AL Central enjoyer. All that jazz aside, it’s a Toussaint game, so some action is bound to be lurking somewhere.
Tigers 4 star plays – Greene/Carpenter, Torkelson
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Baddoo
GPP note – Toussaint allows good contact and power to both sides but carries some strikeout upside, making him a decent hedge target as usual.
White Sox 4 star plays – Robert
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Anderson/Jimenez/Vaughn
GPP note – Righties are getting decent contact and power out of Rodriguez, though he has been strict to lefties.
Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals
Paxton and the Red Sox will take on Lyles and my Royals next, as we move up to a 9.5 total (we finally broke into the 9’s and it only took us seven games). This one has Boston written all over it, and unless my guys can find some Mahomes magic, I don’t think we’ll see much of a different outcome.
Red Sox 5 star plays – Devers
Red Sox 4 star plays – Yoshida/Verdugo, Turner/Casas
GPP note – Lyles gives up all sorts of contact and power to both sides and has a low strikeout rate, so you can go after him however you see fit.
Royals 4 star plays – Witt/Perez
Royals 3.5 star plays – Garcia
GPP note – It’s not a great spot against Paxton but he has allowed some power to righties in his return.
New York Yankees at Houston Astros
Next up we have Rodon and the Yankees taking on Verlander and the Astros. We get an 8.5 total for this one, with the home team as the heavy favorites here. I can’t really argue against that assessment either, but at least there are some pieces from the other side that could be useful (well, at least one piece, probably).
Yankees 4 star plays – Judge
Yankees 3.5 star plays – Torres/Stanton, LeMahieu
GPP note – It’s Verlander, so go contrarian at your own risk.
Astros 5 star plays – Altuve/Bregman
Astros 4 star plays – Alvarez/Tucker, McCormick/Maldonado
GPP note – Rodon has been allowing good contact and power to both sides and there’s solid Vegas support here, so you can stack as usual here.
Pittsburgh Pirates at St Louis Cardinals
Hudson and the Cardinals will host Keller and the Pirates next, along with another 8.5 total. This one is split right down the middle, and while it doesn’t really pop off the paper, I think that there could be a few useful pieces to be found here.
Pirates 4.5 star plays – Reynolds
Pirates 4 star plays – Hayes/McCutchen
GPP note – Hudson carries a low strikeout rate and is allowing good contact to both sides. Righties are also getting some good power out of him, so both hands are in play here.
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado, Nootbaar
Cardinals 3.5 star plays – Gorman/Contreras
GPP note – Keller is allowing moderate xwOBA to both sides with some extra power to lefties, so perhaps these bats can come through.
Toronto Blue Jays at Colorado Rockies
Next up we have our chalky Coors game, this time with the Blue Jays and Rockies. Ryu and Flexen will get the start, and we start off with a 12.0 total. I don’t think that there are any surprises here, but as usual, it doesn’t hurt to take some shots with the less expensive bats and perhaps a pitcher in a few lineups.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Belt/Merrifield, Varsho
GPP note – You know the drill.
Rockies 4 star plays – Tovar/McMahon
Rockies 3.5 star plays – Rodgers
GPP note – Not as good of a spot as the other side, but it’s still Coors.
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Late games
San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres
We’ll head out west for our late games, starting with the Giants and Padres. We’re greeted by a modest 8.5 total for this one, with just a slight nod to the home team. I would have expected a little bit more love from Vegas considering the overall matchup, but perhaps they think that the San Francisco bullpen will make it a bit more interesting than I’m anticipating.
Giants 4 star plays – Pederson
Giants 3.5 star plays – Estrada/Haniger, Yastrzemski
GPP note – Wacha has been pretty solid overall and not a great target to attack, but is allowing some xwOBA to lefties.
Padres 4.5 star plays – Soto
Padres 4 star plays – Tatis/Machado, Kim/Bogaerts
GPP note – It’s hard telling what we’ll get out of Beck and the bullpen, so going either light or heavy may be the way to go rather than trying to match the field.
Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics
Next up we have the Angels and Athletics, with Sandoval and Sears on the mound. We get an 8.0 total for this one, which is about the lowest total on the day in a game without a big-name pitcher. That tells me that either Vegas is wrong or that one of these budget arms might have a bigger day than what their salary might lead one to believe.
Angels 5 star plays – Ohtani
Angels 4 star plays – Drury, Rengifo
GPP note – A solid spot against Sears who is allowing good contact and power to both sides of the plate, which means you can take some lefties other than just Ohtani.
Athletics 4 star plays – Rooker/Gelof
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Langeliers
GPP note – Not a ton of Vegas support here but Sandoval does allow decent contact to both sides and moderate power to lefties.
Baltimore Orioles at Arizona Diamondbacks
Irvin and the Orioles will take on Davies and the Diamondbacks next, as we move up to a much healthier 9.5 total. Vegas has this one split mostly down the middle, though with a slight nod to the visitors. I could see this game hitting the over without too much trouble, so I suspect that we’ll see it break the 10.0 mark at some point today.
Orioles 4.5 star plays – Henderson
Orioles 4 star plays – Santander/Rutschman/Mountcastle
GPP note – Davies hasn’t had a great 2023 campaign, so going after him again here is probably a good idea. Both hands are squarely in play against him.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – Carroll
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Marte, Walker/Pham
GPP note – Lefties are getting more frequent contact out of Irvin while righties are getting extra power, so once again, both hands are in play here.
Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers
We’ll wrap up the day with the Braves and Dodgers, who will start Fried and Urias. An 8.5 total, I can’t help but feel like the over will get pushed here too, as there’s a lot of firepower in these offenses just waiting to explode. Hedging would be a solid way to go here, as having exposure to bats and arms alike could easily prove useful, as the starters may carry less ownership than they might on most other nights.
Braves 4.5 star plays – Acuna/Olson
Braves 4 star plays – Albies/Riley/Ozuna
GPP note – Urias can certainly hold his own, making this a spot you can try some expensive hedging with. Aside from that, he’s allowing contact and power equally to both sides of the plate.
Dodgers 4.5 star plays – Betts/Freeman
Dodgers 4 star plays – Smith, Muncy
GPP note – Same as above except that Fried is allowing far less power.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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Aug 30, 2023; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets right fielder DJ Steward (29) after being doused by gatorade after the game against the Texas Rangers at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
