Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. It’s Friday, and we get a couple of early games followed by a big 13-game slate. We’re finally clear of weather concerns, meaning we can focus more on lineups and less on what mother mature may or may not do. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We have plenty of options today, though they are a bit of a mixed bag. We have some pitchers that look to be useful for all formats, such as Lugo or Canning. We also have some studs facing potent offenses, such as Berrios. On the other side, we have a gas can at Coors and a whopping twelve pitchers with SIERAs north of 4.50. Taking the right pitchers will be as important as always, so be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early games
New York Yankees at Pittsburgh Pirates
We’ll start things off with the early games, beginning with the Yankees and Pirates. Cole and Oviedo will get the start, and with them, a 7.5 total. Nothing looks too out of the ordinary for this game, though with how close it starts to the main slate, there’s a decent chance for some contests to not go completely filled up.
Yankees 4.5 star plays – Judge
Yankees 4 star plays – Torres, Stanton/Volpe
GPP note – A good spot for the lefties as Oviedo is allowing plenty of contact and power to them, though he’s been strict to righties.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Reynolds/Hayes, Suwinsi
GPP note – Not the best way to go today, though Cole has been allowing some decent power to righties.
Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins
Next up we have the Braves and Marlins, with Elder and Cueto on the mound. Vegas has this game down for a 9.0 total, with 5.0+ of that going to the visitors. It’s hard to argue with that assessment, so it may be tough to get cute and get away with it here.
Braves 5 star plays – Olson/Acuna
Braves 4 star plays – Albies/Riley, Ozuna, et al.
GPP note – Stacks of any size are in play as usual here.
Marlins 4 star plays – Arraez/Chisholm
Marlins 3.5 star plays – Bell/Burger
GPP note – Lefties have decent statcast numbers against Elder, so some medium-sized stacks including them could be useful.
Main slate
Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles
We’ll switch over to the main slate now, starting with the Rays and Orioles. We get an 8.5 total for this one, and Vegas has the visitors marked as slight favorites. For the most part this game looks to be fairly straight forward, though with how Flaherty has been, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Rays soar above their total without too much trouble.
Rays 4.5 star plays – Arozarena
Rays 4 star plays – Diaz, Lowe/Lowe
GPP note – Flaherty is allowing good contact and power to both sides of the plate, so bats of either hand are good to go here.
Orioles 4 star plays – Henderson/Rutschman, Santander
Orioles 3.5 star plays – O’Hearn/Mullins
GPP note – Eflin isn’t allowing a lot of useful contact, but batters of both hand are getting decent power out of him when they do.
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
Next up we have the Red Sox and Blue Jays, with Bello and Berrios on the hill. Another 8.5 total, it’s the home team with the Vegas support for this one, though I could see it going either way. This is one of the lower totals we’ll get for this Boston offense, so perhaps they’ll come in with less ownership than usual.
Red Sox 4.5 star plays – Devers
Red Sox 4 star plays – Yoshida/Verdugo, Turner/Casas
GPP note – Berrios is allowing lots of contact and power to lefties and moderate power to righties, so you can get a little creative in stacks here.
Blue Jays 4.5 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Bichette/Schneider/Chapman
GPP note – Bello is allowing moderate contact and power to both sides of the plate and his overall strikeout rate has remained average or slightly below that, making this a decent spot to attack.
Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets
Greene and the Reds will take on Peterson and the Mets next, as we move down to an 8.0 total. Vegas has this one split right down the middle, though I can’t help but feel like we’ll see this one go the over quite easily. That is of course unless Greene throws one of his random gems, but I’m leaning more towards another rough outing for him.
Reds 4.5 star plays – De La Cruz
Reds 4 star plays – Steer/India, Renfroe
GPP note – Righties have done the most damage to Peterson, so going traditional splits here is probably the best option.
Mets 5 star plays – Lindor/Alonso
Mets 4 star plays – Nimmo, McNeil/Vogelbach
GPP note – Greene has high highs and low lows, so it’s not a bad idea to hedge against him. Otherwise, hand matchup doesn’t really matter as he allows power to both sides when he has a bad game.
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Texas Rangers at Cleveland Guardians
Next up we’ll see Gray and the Rangers take on Giolito and the Guardians, along with another 8.5 total. Texas has the slight nod here, and while I do agree, I think that they should have been favored a little heavier. We’ll see how things go, but I like Gray’s chances much better than Vegas does, apparently.
Rangers 4.5 star plays – Seager, Semien
Rangers 4 star plays – Lowe, Garver
GPP note – Giolito has his strikeout upside but he’s also allowing good power to both sides of the plate, so he’s another hedge option to consider.
Guardians 4 star plays – Ramirez, Naylor
Guardians 3.5 star plays – Laureano
GPP note – Gray has remained a bit of a tough target to attack and has flashed some high strikeout upside, so less is probably more for this offense.
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox
Moving right along, our next matchup will be between the Twins and White Sox, with Ober and Scholtens on the mound. We get a 9.0 total for this game, and 5.0+ of this one is going to the visitors. It’s really hard to make an argument against that, so I’m just going to roll with Vegas for this one.
Twins 4.5 star plays – Polanco
Twins 4 star plays – Kepler/Julien/Correa/Lewis
GPP note – Scholtens has a low strikeout rate and is allowing lots of contact and power to righties, so this is a good spot to go, using righties for ownership leverage.
White Sox 4 star plays – Robert
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Benintendi, Anderson/Jimenez/Moncada/Vaughn
GPP note – There’s not a ton of Vegas love here, but seeing that Ober is allowing good contact and power to both sides, this isn’t a bad place to go for some contrarian action.
Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers
Irvin and the Nationals will take on Miley and the Brewers next, as we drop back down to an 8.0 total. The home team looks to be the heavy favorite for this one, as they surpass the -200 moneyline mark with a near 5.0 total. I can’t argue against them taking the W, but seeing how random Miley can be, it wouldn’t hurt to have some exposure to both sides of this one.
Nationals 4 star plays – Thomas/Abrams
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Meneses/Ruiz
GPP note – Basically the same as the White Sox, though these bats will likely see much less ownership.
Brewers 4.5 star plays – Contreras, Santana
Brewers 4 star plays – Adames, Frelick
GPP note – Solid spot for the lefties but no so much the righties, so traditional splits are probably the way to go for the Brew crew whenever possible.
Houston Astros at Kansas City Royals
Next up we’ll have Javier and the Astros taking on Greinke and my Royals, as we move up to a healthy 9.5 total. Houston is the favorite by a wide margin, and while that doesn’t really surprise me, I think that KC can make some noise here. Probably not enough to secure a win, but perhaps enough to break their total.
Astros 5 star plays – Alvarez
Astros 4.5 star plays – Tucker/Altuve/Bregman
GPP note – Just about everyone is in play here as usual, though Greinke can hold his own against righties.
Royals 4 star plays – Witt/Perez
Royals 3.5 star plays – Garcia/Melendez, Olivares
GPP note – The Vegas support isn’t really here, but these bats can go off randomly and Javier is no stranger to getting shelled, so contrarian stacks are worth considering.
Philadelphia Phillies at St Louis Cardinals
Our next matchup will feature Nola and the Phillies going head-to-head with Thompson and the Cardinals, as we drop down once again to an 8.0 total. Vegas has this game much closer than I had anticipated, as the Phillies are only slight favorites over St Louis. We’ll see how that pans out, but I see them taking the win by at least a couple of runs.
Phillies 4 star plays – Turner/Castellanos/Realmuto, Harper
Phillies 3.5 star plays – Bohm/Schwarber
GPP note – Thompson is allowing good contact and power to righties, though very little to lefties, making this another spot to lean towards using traditional splits.
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado, Nootbaar
Cardinals 3.5 star plays – Contreras/Edman
GPP note – Nola carries plenty of strikeout upside but also can’t seem to stop allowing a home run or two every time he pitches, so be sure to grab at least a few mini or medium-sized contrarian stacks here.
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San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
It’s Coors time next, as Webb and the Giants will take on Anderson and the Rockies at our favorite chalky ballpark. The total is only at 10.5, which is a little low for a typical Coors game, so it’ll be interesting to see how much that impacts ownership. Could this be a day to play Coors to be a little contrarian? Probably not, but it’s an interesting thought.
Giants 5 star plays – Yastrzemski
Giants 4 star plays – Pederson, Estrada/Conforto, Haniger
GPP note – It’s Coors and none of these bats are painfully expensive, so expect plenty of ownership here.
Rockies 4.5 star plays – Blackmon/McMahon, Bryant
Rockies 4 star plays – Jones, Diaz
GPP note – A relatively low total for this being a Coors game, but they’re going to carry ownership regardless.
Late games
Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels
We’ll head out west for our late games now, starting with the Tigers and Angels. Skubal and Canning will get the start here, as we drop down to a very uninspiring 7.5 total. This game is split almost down the middle, which makes both starters interesting targets. I don’t see large stacks doing a whole lot of good here, but perhaps some cherry picking could net a low-owned homer or two.
Tigers 4 star plays – Carpenter, Torkelson
Tigers 3.5 star plays – McKinstry, Cabrera
GPP note – Tough spot, though righties are getting decent power out of Canning on occasion.
Angels 4 star plays – Grichuk
Angels 3.5 star plays – Drury
GPP note – Tough spot here too, so smaller stacks are probably best.
Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks
Next up we’ll have Steele and the Cubs taking on PFaadt and the Diamondbacks, along with an 8.5 total. Nothing looks overly suspicious here, though I would not be surprised to see Chicago break the 5.0 run mark. They won’t exactly be cheap doing it, so hopefully that will keep their ownership down a little for a Coors pivot option.
Cubs 4.5 star plays – Bellinger
Cubs 4 star plays – Happ, Suzuki/Hoerner/Swanson/Morel
GPP note – Lefties are getting good contact and power out of Pfaadt, though he has been quite strict to righties.
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Carroll, Marte
Diamondbacks 3.5 star plays – Pham/Walker
GPP note – Tough spot against Steele, though lefties have found some power out of him recently.
San Diego Padres at Oakland Athletics
Lugo and the Padres will take on Newcomb and the Athletics next, along with yet another 8.5 total. San Diego is the heavy favorite for this game, and while that’s just fine and dandy, I actually of like Newcomb a little here for a contrarian move. We’ll see how that goes, but if they continue to give him innings, I could see him returning plenty of value for how cheap he is.
Padres 4.5 star plays – Soto
Padres 4 star plays – Tatis/Machado/Bogaerts
GPP note – Newcomb looks to be getting an increased workload and has been quite tough, so going under might not be a bad idea (or you could hedge with him as a punt SP2 option).
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Gelof, Noda/Brown/Langliers
GPP note – Tough spot against Lugo, though he does allow random power to righties.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Seattle Mariners
And finally, we’ll wrap up the day with the Dodgers and Mariners. Miller and Kirby will get the start here, and with them, a very surprising 7.5 total. I get that we have quality starters in play here, but it’s just wild to see a sub-4.0 total for Los Angeles. I’m very interested to see how this one turns out, so I know which game I’ll be watching tonight!
Dodgers 4 star plays – Freeman/Betts
Dodgers 3.5 star plays – Muncy, Martinez/Smith
GPP note – Low total thanks to this being a tough matchup, so these bats make for a pay up to be contrarian pivot option.
Mariners 4 star plays – Rodrigue
Mariners 3.5 star plays – Raleigh/Crawford, Hernandez
GPP note – Same as above except that Miller is allowing even less power than Kirby is.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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Sep 14, 2023; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Brewers left fielder Tyrone Taylor (15) is dunked by shortstop Willy Adames (27) after the Brewers beat the Miami Marlins at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
