Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 9/3:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Tarik Skubal
- Taj Bradley
- Kevin Gausman
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Chicago Cubs (-155) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Cubs – Jameson Taillon
Reds – Carson Spiers
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. Great hitting weather in CIN and both teams should get it done. Spiers is making his MLB debut but he’s not some big time prospect at this point. Taillon is super hit or miss but he’s been bad most of the season. CIN does K plenty but I think we see a launching pad today and I am going to predict that we see 5+ HRs in this game. Bellinger and De La Cruz are my 2 HR predictions.
CHC 5-star plays: Ian Happ
4-star plays: Cody Bellinger
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs.
CIN 5-star plays: Jake Fraley
4-star plays: Elly De La Cruz, Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against RHPs.
Boston Red Sox (-210) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Chris Sale
Royals – Taylor Clarke/Zack Greinke
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. Sale could rack up a ton of strikeouts early or he could give up a few HRs and walks. The weather in KC is PRIME for hitting in this one, as evidenced by the 10 total. Casas is raking at the plate while Turner and Story have hit Greinke really well in previous match-ups. Duvall is starting to cool down but he’s been really good over the last few weeks.
BOS 5-star plays: Tristan Casas
4-star plays: Adam Duvall, Trevor Story
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against RHPs.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bobby Witt, Nelson Velazquez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against LHPs.
Minnesota Twins @ Texas Rangers (-140)
Pitchers:
Twins – Kenta Maeda
Rangers – Jon Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We could see a sneaky SP duel in this one but Gray can be hit around some while the Rangers are an extremely dangerous offense. I like both SPs upside but Gray’s feels greater thanks to the K upside the Twins offer. I am not sure that I will fully stack either side much but I definitely want mini-stacks of each offense.
MIN 5-star plays: Max Kepler
4-star plays: Donovan Solano, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 against RHPs.
TEX 5-star plays: Corey Seager
4-star plays: Adolis Garcia, Austin Hedges
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 against RHPs.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St Louis Cardinals (-140)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Johan Oviedo
Cardinals – Zack Thompson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total 0f 9. This is another game that could see a surprising SP duel or we could see a few HRs hit and the total go over within the first 6 innings of action. Overall, the Pirates are pretty weak against LHPs but they have a few guys that have hit Thompson well previously. Most of the STL lineup is cold right now but they can wake up at any point and explode. Arenado is ice cold but he has smashed Oviedo previously.
PIT 5-star plays: Andrew McCutchen
4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 against LHPs.
STL 5-star plays: Lars Nootbar
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Nolan Gorman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against RHPs.
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Baltimore Orioles @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-145)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Jack Flaherty
D’Backs – Zac Gallen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Home Zac Gallen is as elite as they come and he gets the Orioles at the right time, as they struggle a bit. Flaherty is super hit or miss but he might get a weaker ARI lineup than we would normally see with Walker likely out and Moreno possibly resting. I love both sides for mini-stacks but Gallen has been so damn good at home so maybe I need to use both SPs as well.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs.
ARI 5-star plays: Gabriel Moreno
4-star plays: Corbin Carroll
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against RHPs.
New York Yankees @ Houston Astros (-145)
Pitchers:
Yankees – Michael King
Astros – Cristian Javier
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Javier has dominated against the Yankees in previous match-ups but he isn’t the same pitcher this year. I feel like we see a bunch of HRs, continuing the theme of this series a bit. The Yankees have 17 HRs over their last 7 games while the Astros have 12 over their last 6. I have no interest in either pitcher at this point.
NYY 5-star plays: Gleyber Torres
4-star plays: Jasson Dominguez, Aaron Judge
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Jeremy Pena
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs.
Toronto Blue Jays (-260) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Kevin Gausman
Rockies – Chase Anderson
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 11.5. I am not sure if Gausman is the play but I love taking great pitchers in Coors because their ownership is generally lower than it should be. The Blue Jays have an extremely healthy team total today so I would gladly stack them up. Blackmon has hit Gausman well in the past so he’s my main target on COL at this point.
TOR 5-star plays: Davis Schneider
4-star plays: George Springer, Alejandro Kirk
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .163 against RHPs.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Jones
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs.
Seattle Mariners (-155) @ New York Mets
Pitchers:
Mariners – George Kirby
Mets – Tylor Megill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I actually think the game total here is wrong and I am not afraid to say that. I think the Mariners score 5+ today and the Mets have a few guys swinging it really well so I think we see 10+ runs in this game. With that being said, I will use both SPs because they offer upside, even Megill. I will use Megill to target the high K upside that SEA offers, knowing that there’s a ton of volatility.
SEA 5-star plays: Julio Rodriguez
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, JP Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against RHPs.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo, DJ Stewart
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs.
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Detroit Tigers (-145) @ Chicago White Sox
Pitchers:
Tigers – Tarik Skubal
White Sox – Michael Kopech
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Two of my favorite SPs on this slate going up against each other. Kopech has been really great or he has been atrocious, with very little in-between. Skubal is my favorite arm today and his opponent got weaker as Robert was scratched already today. Tim Anderson has hit Skubal really well, which catches me off guard because he’s been so bad this season.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Spencer Torkelson, Akil Baddoo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 against RHPs.
CWS 5-star plays: Tim Anderson
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against LHPs.
Atlanta Braves (-115) @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Pitchers:
Braves – Charlie Morton
Dodgers – Bobby Miller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Morton has been spectacular of late for the Braves but there are a few LAD bats that have done plenty of damage against him. Miller was strong against the Braves earlier but I have a hard time believing he’s going to be again. Feels like an interesting game to stack up this afternoon.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Marcell Ozuna
GPP Note: Team ISO of .220 against RHPs.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, David Peralta
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 against RHPs.
Los Angeles Angels (-130) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Angels – Tyler Anderson
A’s – Kyle Muller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Not a lot to get excited about in this game. Two weak offenses taking on two weak pitchers. Ohtani could always break a slate open while the A’s actually have the hotter hitters right now. I will target each offense from a mini-stack standpoint but that’s about it in this meeting.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Luis Rengifo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against LHPs.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jordan Diaz, Esteury Ruiz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 against LHPs.
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Tampa Bay Rays (-155) @ Cleveland Guardians
Pitchers:
Rays – Taj Bradley
Guardians – Xzavion Curry
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.
TB 5-star plays: Randy Arozarena
4-star plays: Josh Lowe, Brandon Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 against RHPs.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Bo Naylor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 against RHPs.
San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres (-140)
Pitchers:
Giants – Alex Cobb
Padres – Seth Lugo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs.
SD 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against RHPs.
Miami Marlins (-165) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Nationals – Josiah Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5.
MIA 5-star plays: Jazz Chisholm
4-star plays: Bryan De La Cruz, Jesus Sanchez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against RHPs.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: CJ Abrams, Joey Meneses
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 against RHPs.
Philadelphia Phillies (EVEN) @ Milwaukee Brewers
Pitchers:
Phillies – Ranger Suarez
Brewers – Wade Miley
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5.
PHI 5-star plays: Trea Turner, Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 against LHPs.
MIL 5-star plays: William Contreras
4-star plays: Mark Canha
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against LHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Boston Red Sox
- Seattle Mariners
MLB Dinger of the Day – Trea Turner, Phillies
May 10, 2022; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal (29) pitches during the first inning against the Oakland Athletics at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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