Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 9/2:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Blake Snell
- Kyle Bradish
- Hunter Brown
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Chicago Cubs (-115) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Cubs – Javier Assad
Reds – Andrew Abbott
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Abbott has been strong at home so it’s weird to see the Cubs as the favorite in this one. Assad’s K ability isn’t as strong as a starter but he’s been solid and the Reds offer some K upside. The game total tells me we should be looking at some HRs in this one and if that’s the case, why not roll with the two hot Cubs bats below. The Reds revamped their roster with waiver acquisitions.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Ian Happ
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against LHPs.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jake Fraley, Christian Encarnacion-Strand
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against RHPs.
Boston Red Sox (-195) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Tanner Houck
Royals – Alec Marsh
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. For having such a strong game total, I just don’t see much to love for the Royals. Houck hasn’t been sharp but he hasn’t been terrible either. He has great numbers against RHBs so I think KC has some struggles. Boston let us down on Friday but they could bounce right back today. I kind of want to go back to Casas as my dinger call but I think I am going to pass and most likely regret it.
BOS 5-star plays: Adam Duvall
4-star plays: Tristan Casas, Justin Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bobby Witt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against RHPs.
Minnesota Twins @ Texas Rangers (-195)
Pitchers:
Twins – Dallas Keuchel
Rangers – Jordan Montgomery
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Texas bats have been cold of late but I think this is a spot for them to wake up. Keuchel allows far too much contact for the Rangers to stay quiet. I believe Texas hits multiple HRs in this spot. Montgomery wasn’t very sharp against MIN the last time out but that could change today. Most of the MIN lineup is cool overall, he just needs to avoid the hot hitting Polanco right now.
MIN 5-star plays: Jorge Polanco
4-star plays: Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against LHPs.
TEX 5-star plays: Mitch Garver
4-star plays: Robbie Grossman, Corey Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 against LHPs.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St Louis Cardinals (-160)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Thomas Hatch/Bailey Falter
Cardinals – Drew Rom
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total 0f 9.5. I am shocked to see such a strong game total between two very bad offenses right now. I know that STL has the names to break out at any point, which is why I MUCH prefer them from a stacking standpoint. Rom has shown ability in the minors and wasn’t bad his last time out so maybe he figures it out against PIT. He just needs to avoid the top two (assuming it’s Reynolds-Hayes).
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 against LHPs.
STL 5-star plays: Jordan Walker
4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against LHPs.
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Baltimore Orioles (-130) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Orioles – Kyle Bradish
D’Backs – Slade Cecconi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I certainly could see this game exploding but the BAL offense has hit a wall over the last week or so. They have the better match-up in this game but the ARI offense has been providing some power/extra-base hits more frequently. I am a Bradish fan so it’s tough for me to stack against him but I do think there are viable ARI mini-stacks in this one. Santander probably bounces back after last night and has a multi-hit performance.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan O’Hearn, Anthony Santander
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs.
ARI 5-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel
4-star plays: Corbin Carroll
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against RHPs.
New York Yankees @ Houston Astros (-190)
Pitchers:
Yankees – Luis Severino
Astros – Hunter Brown
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Severino has looked sharp the last 2 times out, especially last time out. With that being said, the HOU lineup is definitely getting it done right now with 32 extra-base hits over their last 6 games. Brown has a ton of upside against this NYY lineup but they mashed against Verlander last night. I still think the young version of the Yankees will have their struggles but maybe Brown isn’t a lock afterall.
NYY 5-star plays: Gleyber Torres
4-star plays: Jasson Dominguez, Aaron Judge
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs.
HOU 5-star plays: Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs.
Toronto Blue Jays (-205) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Yusei Kikuchi
Rockies – Ty Blach
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 12. I want to be on the Kikuchi train but he the Rockies are “decent” at home, against LHPs. With that being said, I’d still like to get a couple of shares. I do think that Goodman has a strong shot at hitting his 1st MLB HR in this spot. The Blue Jays have struggled much of the season with LHPs but they have been better over the last month. Schneider just keeps hitting the baseball and a double-dong game wouldn’t shock me.
TOR 5-star plays: Davis Schneider
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, Alejandro Kirk
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .149 against LHPs.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Hunter Goodman, Nolan Jones
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against LHPs.
Seattle Mariners (-135) @ New York Mets
Pitchers:
Mariners – Luis Castillo
Mets – David Peterson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Castillo has a legit shot to jump Cole for the AL Cy Young betting lead if he can go out and dominate. The issue here is that he has struggled some on the road in 2023. Either Vegas overvalues David Peterson or I severely undervalue him at this point. I know that SEA hasn’t been as dangerous against LHPs as we would think but they have some potent power against them and Julio-Teoscar are going to end up my favorite duo on this slate.
SEA 5-star plays: Julio Rodriguez
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against LHPs.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo, DJ Stewart
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against RHPs.
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Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Reese Olson
White Sox – Mike Clevinger
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Some wind blowing in for this game makes me really interested in both SPs. Clevinger, while being a shitty human being, has been really strong and I am a bit shocked he wasn’t picked up on waivers. Olson has had some bright spots and could surprise a bit as a low owned option. A couple of the White Sox bats have been swinging it well but we can’t say the same thing about DET.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kerry Carpenter
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against RHPs.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Robert, Yoan Moncada
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs.
Atlanta Braves (EVEN) @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Pitchers:
Braves – Bryce Elder
Dodgers – Emmet Sheehan
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. We have the NL’s top 4 in terms of betting odds for NL MVP but to be honest, it’s down to Acuna and Betts for me. Betts has had success against Elder while Acuna has had the slightly better series. Both guys are destroying the baseball right now. I actually like the LAD side more for a full stack tonight, which is saying quite a bit. I want plenty of exposure to this game.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna
4-star plays: Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna
GPP Note: Team ISO of .221 against RHPs.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .199 against RHPs.
Los Angeles Angels (-125) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Angels – Griffin Canning
A’s – Paul Blackburn
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I definitely think we see a pitchers “duel” in this match-up. There are a couple of hot bats on each side but they are blanketed by a handful of guys who are struggling. Canning has shown some surprising upside and he faces, arguably, the weakest offense in baseball. Blackburn is capable of doing damage against anybody but he has to avoid the Ohtani-Rengifo combination.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Luis Rengifo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .191 against RHPs.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jordan Diaz, Esteury Ruiz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 against RHPs.
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Tampa Bay Rays (-120) @ Cleveland Guardians
Pitchers:
Rays – Zack Littell
Guardians – Logan Allen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I’m really glad this one isn’t part of the main slate today. I have very little interest in this match-up. CLE isn’t a huge K team but they have very little power in the lineup at this point. Allen has flashed big time ability but do we want him against TB? Maybe since TB isn’t as dangerous against LHPs this season. Just a really tough game to get a read on as I just don’t see much to fall in love with.
TB 5-star plays: Randy Arozarena
4-star plays: Josh Lowe, Isaac Paredes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against LHPs.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 against RHPs.
San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres (-190)
Pitchers:
Giants – Kyle Harrison
Padres – Blake Snell
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Snell, the current NL Cy Young favorite, against a super prospect in Kyle Harrison. Harrison has been hit by LHBs in his 2 starts but he’s been great against RHBs. SD has a ton of guys who have done damage to LHPs this season and throughout their careers so it’s an interesting spot. Snell dominated against SF earlier this season and the lineup should be pretty weak against LHPs.
SF 5-star plays: Wilmer Flores
4-star plays: Patrick Bailey
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 against LHPs.
SD 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis, Matthew Batten
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against LHPs.
Miami Marlins (-120) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Marlins – Johnny Cueto
Nationals – Trevor Williams
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. This is another game that I am glad isn’t on the main slate. I just don’t see a lot to like between two blah pitchers going up against a mediocre and a shit offense at this point. Could there be some fireworks? Yes, I believe there could be if Soler is back in the lineup. Abrams is an interesting one-off option with his speed at the top of the lineup. A few of the Marlins have hit Williams well in the past.
MIA 5-star plays: Jorge Soler
4-star plays: Luis Arraez, Jesus Sanchez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against RHPs.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: CJ Abrams, Joey Meneses
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 against RHPs.
Philadelphia Phillies (-145) @ Milwaukee Brewers
Pitchers:
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Brewers – Colin Rea
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. This feels like an absolute smash spot for the Phillies. Does that mean I need to be worried? Nola hasn’t been very sharp on the road but the Brewers aren’t exactly a potent offense overall. They did strike out a bunch last night against Wheeler so maybe Nola can capture some of that? Trea Turner is absolutely blistering at the plate right now while most of the PHI lineup has been doing damage.
PHI 5-star plays: Trea Turner, Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Mark Canha
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Atlanta Braves
MLB Dinger of the Day – Mitch Garver, Rangers
Jun 16, 2022; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Philadelphia Phillies left fielder Kyle Schwarber (12) celebrates with designated hitter Bryce Harper (3) after hitting a two run home run against the Washington Nationals during the third inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
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