Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 9/27:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Pablo Lopez
- Tarik Skubal
- Matt Waldron
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Los Angeles Dodgers (-220) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Emmet Sheehan
Rockies – Noah Davis
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 12.5. Dodgers bats, in Coors, against weak pitching? Where the hell do I sign up for all of it? Yes, I had the same two sentences yesterday but it’s still true today. Sheehan has looked strong over his last couple of outings and he has ability to pay off but do we want to rely on him in Coors? I am not so sure at this moment.
LAD 5-star plays: JD Martinez, Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .194 against RHPs.
COL 5-star plays: Nolan Jones
4-star plays: Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs.
Arizona Diamondbacks (-195) @ Chicago White Sox
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Brandon Pfaadt
White Sox – Luis Patino
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. This is not an overly exciting SP match-up which means we should be on the bats, somewhat heavily. Let’s get back on the ARI bats as Patino has been bad in the minors and his MLB numbers just haven’t matched his hype coming up. Carroll hurt us yesterday but I kind of want to go heavy on him today, for a bounce back. Pfaadt could be an interesting piece in a high total game.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Corbin Carroll, Christian Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against RHPs.
CHW 5-star plays: Eloy Jimenez
4-star plays: Andrew Vaughn
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against RHPs.
Oakland Athletics @ Minnesota Twins (-278)
Pitchers:
A’s – Joey Estes
Twins – Pablo Lopez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Estes looked pretty bad in his debut and I felt like an idiot for being interested in him. He gets a great K match-up but is he going to take advantage of that? A majority of the Twins lineup has picked it up recently so they are intriguing. Lopez struggled against OAK earlier but he has a chance to close the regular season strongly, against the weakest team in baseball.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brent Rooker, Seth Brown
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs.
MIN 5-star plays: Alex Kirilloff
4-star plays: Willi Castro, Matt Wallner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 against RHPs.
Washington Nationals @ Baltimore Orioles (-260)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Orioles – Grayson Rodriguez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total 0f 8. I really wish Mountcastle was healthy in this spot but it is what it is. I think the overall BAL lineup is weaker against LHPs, especially at home but there are a few guys who have hit Corbin really well. Grayson is in a great spot but I do have some worries about him going just 5 innings in this match-up. It allows BAL to keep him sharp while also limiting the innings on him, during his rookie season.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Garcia, CJ Abrams
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against RHPs.
BAL 5-star plays: Austin Hays
4-star plays: Anthony Santander, Adley Rutschman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against LHPs.
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Miami Marlins (-130) @ New York Mets – Game 1
Pitchers:
Marlins – Braxton Garrett
Mets – Joey Lucchesi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I am a fan of Garrett and I think this is a very interesting spot for him, despite a couple of the Mets having success against him previously. I also think this is a great spot for the Marlins bats as the guys who are hottest (below) are also the guys that have had success against Lucchesi in the past. The run total in this one doesn’t seem to match what I see with Miami but that’s OK, I trust what I see in the numbers.
MIA 5-star plays: Jorge Soler, Josh Bell
4-star plays: Jon Berti, Jake Burger
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against LHPs.
NYM 5-star plays: Jeff McNeil
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against LHPs.
Miami Marlins (-120) @ New York Mets – Game 2
Pitchers:
Marlins – Johnny Cueto
Mets – Kodai Senga
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Vegas line flip to the Mets side here. Senga is certainly better than Cueto and the Mets lineup has been far better against RHPs than the MIA lineup has. The Marlins lineup has been better of late but I am not sure we can trust them to crush a guy like Senga. Probably a good thing this game isn’t on tonight’s main slate for DK (I haven’t looked at FD yet).
MIA 5-star plays: Jorge Soler, Josh Bell
4-star plays: Jon Berti, Jazz Chisholm
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against RHPs.
NYM 5-star plays: Jeff McNeil
4-star plays: Omar Narvaez, Brandon Nimmo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs.
Tampa Bay Rays (-130) @ Boston Red Sox
Pitchers:
Rays – Tyler Glasnow
Red Sox – Brayan Bello
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I love the pitching match-up but there are questions within this one. Bello hasn’t been overly strong and some of the TB bats have been heating up again. Glasnow is somebody I’m always on because of his strong K ability. Devers has hit him really well in the past.
TB 5-star plays: Yandy Diaz
4-star plays: Josh Lowe, Jonathan Aranda
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 against RHPs.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Emmanuel Valdez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against RHPs.
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays (-120)
Pitchers:
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Blue Jays – Jose Berrios
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7. There’s some interesting BvP in this game which makes the 7 total really interesting. Judge has absolutely smashed Berrios while Vlad has done some damage to Cole. I don’t think it’s worth fully stacking either side but I am looking at a handful of mini-stacks to be different. Berrios needs to step up for TOR as the season winds down while Cole is looking to lock up the AL Cy Young.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Oswaldo Cabrera, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against RHPs.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero
4-star plays: Alejandro Kirk, George Springer
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .164 against RHPs.
Houston Astros (-125) @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
Astros – Framber Valdez
Mariners – Bryce Miller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Miller has been a stud against HOU this season but overall, he has really struggled with LHBs. What’s going to give in this spot? HOU has a couple of extremely dangerous LHBs in the middle of their lineup. The Mariners are much weaker against LHPs so Valdez is definitely in play for me despite 1 of his starts against SEA being a really rough one this season.
HOU 5-star plays: Kyle Tucker
4-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Yainer Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against RHPs.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, JP Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against LHPs.
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Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers (-210)
Pitchers:
Royals – Jonathan Bowlan
Tigers – Tarik Skubal
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Bowlan has been pretty damn bad in the minors, especially against LHBs. The Tigers have been pretty damn bad at the MLB level, so there’s the conundrum. With that being said, I do love the Tigers for mini-stacks. Skubal is a stud and as long as he stays healthy, should have multiple top-3 Cy Young finishes. He gets a great match-up but just needs to contain Perez, who has hit him well.
KC 5-star plays: Bobby Witt
4-star plays: Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against LHPs.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Parker Meadows, Kerry Carpenter
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 against RHPs.
San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants (-110)
Pitchers:
Padres – Matt Waldron
Giants – Sean Manaea
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Based BvP and some recent trends, I would say that SD is in a great spot. The issue I have is the ballpark is great for pitching, Manaea has looked strong recently (some of the BvP against him happened in Mexico City) and the Padres lineup has seen some regulars sit out recently. Waldron has looked really good in the rotation so I am definitely intrigued as the Giants overall lineup has been pretty cold.
SD 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Juan Soto
4-star plays: Jurickson Profar, Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 against LHPs.
SF 5-star plays: Lamonte Wade
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies (-145)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Johan Oviedo
Phillies – Ranger Suarez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I really think the Phillies should smash Oviedo but there might be a little bit of a hangover tonight. Suarez is always one of my favorite guys as he flashes great upside. Overall, the Pirates haven’t been great against LHPs but there are a few guys who are swinging it really well right now plus have success against LHPs. Maybe we need to consider a full PIT stack to be different.
PIT 5-star plays: Henry Davis
4-star plays: Miguel Andujar, Jared Triolo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against LHPs.
PHI 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Alec Bohm, Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs.
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Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians (-135)
Pitchers:
Reds – Andrew Abbott
Guardians – Shane Bieber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I really should be considering Abbott with how bad CLE can be against LHPs but this whole game has me in a blah mood. CIN has a very dangerous lineup but it’s Bieber and he’s favored in this game. A couple of the CIN LHBs have hit him hard previously or are red hot at the plate right now. The biggest question for me is, who is going to do damage against Abbott?
CIN 5-star plays: TJ Friedl
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Jake Fraley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Myles Straw, Andres Gimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 against LHPs.
Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves (-160)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Jameson Taillon
Braves – Darius Vines
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Taillon hasn’t been great on the road as his K rate plummets while he simply just allows more runs. It’s a tough spot given that Chicago needs the W so bad but the Braves are so damn good. The Braves can clinch the #1 seed in the NL tonight with a win and a Dodgers loss. I would think they have some motivation to get that done. Vines isn’t some elite arm so I could see the Cubs doing some damage and we get a 12-13 run game.
CHC 5-star plays: Seiya Suzuki
4-star plays: Miles Mastrobuoni, Ian Happ
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Matt Olson
4-star plays: Orlando Arcia, Eddie Rosario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .224 against RHPs.
Texas Rangers (-155) @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Rangers – Dane Dunning
Angels – Griffin Canning
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I am very tempted to make Evan Carter a 5-Star play. I’ve seen enough to believe he’s going to be an All-Star for many years at the MLB level. Seager left last night’s game so we have to monitor his status. Canning has had some pretty strong starts so the upside is there but I don’t love the spot. Dunning has been best away from home and he’s been pretty solid against the Angels in two starts this season.
TEX 5-star plays: Marcus Semien
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Evan Carter
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 against RHPs.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jared Walsh, Matt Thaiss
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 against RHPs.
St Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers (-135)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Zack Thompson
Brewers – Wade Miley
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I want to believe the Brewers are going to smack Thompson around again but there might be a bit of a hangover tonight. They clinched the division last night and celebrations can take a little bit out of guys. Miley should be in a decent spot but the Cardinals just saw him last week as well. Goldschmidt has owned Miley in previous meetings, going 10 for 20.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Andrew Knizner, Jordan Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against LHPs.
MIL 5-star plays: William Contreras
4-star plays: Tyrone Taylor, Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against LHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Atlanta Braves
- Milwaukee Brewers
MLB Dinger of the Day – Aaron Judge, Yankees
Jul 7, 2020; Bronx, New York, United States; New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99) during batting practice for workouts at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
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