Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 9/13:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Taj Bradley
- Luis Castillo
- Mike Clevinger
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Chicago Cubs (-170) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Cubs – Jameson Taillon
Rockies – Ty Blach
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11.5. Coors field for a day game sounds pretty interesting to me. Blach keeps doing just enough to make stacks less attractive but he’s just not that strong of an SP so I expect a blow-up soon. Suzuki is locked in for the Cubs and I like his chances in this spot. Bryant went deep against his former team last night and is somebody that I have quite a bit of interest in. Taillon is going to be in my player pool against this COL lineup.
CHC 5-star plays: Seiya Suzuki
4-star plays: Dansby Swanson, Cody Bellinger
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against LHPs.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Elehuris Montero, Kris Bryant
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs.
Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox (-160)
Pitchers:
Royals – Steven Cruz/Alec Marsh
White Sox – Mike Clevinger
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We saw the White Sox wake up in both games of the doubleheader yesterday while the Royals struggled in game 1 but came alive in game 2. I don’t think we see both teams explode today as Clevinger should be in a solid spot while Marsh is capable of being just good enough. I’m not in love with much of either offense in this game. Probably going to mainly play Clevinger.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Edward Olivares, Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against RHPs.
CHW 5-star plays: Andrew Vaughn
4-star plays: Eloy Jimenez, Elvis Andrus
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs.
Tampa Bay Rays (-125) @ Minnesota Twins
Pitchers:
Rays – Taj Bradley
Twins – Dallas Keuchel
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. This lines up as a great spot for Bradley. He’s been a reverse splits guy but we know the Twins follow platoon splits pretty closely plus the RHBs of the Twins are struggling a little bit right now. Keuchel getting to face the Rays would have been somewhat interesting if Yandy was out but it looks like he’s leading off again. The Rays are an upside stack, for sure.
TB 5-star plays: Harold Ramirez
4-star plays: Isaac Paredes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against LHPs.
MIN 5-star plays: Royce Lewis
4-star plays: Willi Castro
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 against RHPs.
St Louis Cardinals @ Baltimore Orioles (-178)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Drew Rom
Orioles – Kyle Gibson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total 0f 10. The Orioles line up to be in a great spot against the rookie, Rom. Mountcastle has been struggling but there’s nothing better than a weak LHP for him to feast on. The hottest Cardinals bats have question marks due to injuries (Contreras and Gorman). Gibson doesn’t feel like a great option but he might be one that does just enough to sneak into the SP2 conversation.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willson Contreras, Lars Nootbar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against RHPs.
BAL 5-star plays: Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle
4-star plays: Austin Hays, Aaron Hicks
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against LHPs.
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Arizona Diamondbacks (-145) @ New York Mets
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Zac Gallen
Mets – Joey Lucchesi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Any time Gallen takes the mound we have to take notice. The issue here is that he isn’t the same guy on the road but he is coming off of a dominant road start. Lucchesi is interesting because he has randomly shown upside when being called up. A majority of the ARI lineup can be had by him but I also think it’s a dangerous spot for him. I don’t want to stack against Gallen.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Evan Longoria, Tommy Pham
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 against LHPs.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo, DJ Stewart
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs.
New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox (-130)
Pitchers:
Yankees – Clarke Schmidt
Red Sox – Tanner Houck
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. The game total tells me that we should be playing bats in this one. The recent trends of the offenses tell me a different story. Which side is going to win out? Devers and Turner have smacked the Yankees this season so they make a TON of sense as a mini-stack today. Judge has had success against Houck but he’s struggling a bit at the moment. The Yankees have hit 4 HRs over the last week and 2 of those were by the now injured Jasson Dominguez.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against RHPs.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Justin Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs.
Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays (-130)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Jordan Montgomery
Blue Jays – Yusei Kikuchi
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. We have two very viable SPs but they take on offenses that I prefer to not pick on. There are bats in this game that I feel are in a great spot, either based on previous meetings or on numbers against LHPs. Schneider just keeps surprising, especially against LHPs. Garver is always a guy I like thanks to his power. Bichette has been struggling some but he has hit Montgomery well.
TEX 5-star plays: Mitch Garver, Marcus Semien
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Robbie Grossman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 against LHPs.
TOR 5-star plays: Davis Schneider
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero, Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .164 against RHPs.
Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners (-335)
Pitchers:
Angels – Chase Silseth
Mariners – Luis Castillo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. This one SHOULD be all about the Mariners. Castillo has been dominant, especially at home while he takes on a struggling LAA lineup that could be without Ohtani, yet again. A couple of the LAA bats have had success against Castillo but it’s tough to trust them. Silseth carved up the Mariners earlier this season but he did allow a couple of HRs to the top half of the lineup.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Mike Moustakas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 against RHPs.
SEA 5-star plays: Julio Rodriguez
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, JP Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 against RHPs.
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Cincinnati Reds @ Detroit Tigers (-135)
Pitchers:
Reds – Connor Phillips
Tigers – Eduardo Rodriguez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I am very intrigued by this SP match-up, to be honest. Phillips has K ability and he was great against LHBs in his debut but the SEA RHBs sent him packing. E-Rod is capable of a massive performance any time he takes the mound. There are definitely Ks in the CIN lineup but a few guys hit LHPs well. Not a game that I see myself fully stacking but a couple of 2-man stacks make sense to me.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Harrison Bader, Nick Senzel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against LHPs.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Spencer Torkelson, Matt Vierling
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 against RHPs.
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-120)
Pitchers:
Padres – Blake Snell
Dodgers – Ryan Pepiot
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I really don’t know how to attack this game. A bunch of the LAD bats are swinging it really well and there are a few who have had success against Snell but it’s Blake Snell and he’s been great for most of the season. He has made 3 starts against the Dodgers this season and has allowed just 9 hits total (but 11 walks). Pepiot has been really strong when given opportunities so maybe he’s the play in this one but the Padres offense always scares me (even though they underachieve more than any other team).
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis, Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Chris Taylor, Kike Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .212 against LHPs.
Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros (-278)
Pitchers:
A’s – Paul Blackburn
Astros – Hunter Brown
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Brown has 23 Ks in 19 innings of work against OAK this season. He has just 1 win in those 3 starts despite allowing just 5 earned runs. Blackburn has been decent this season but there are a few Astros who have hit him really well. I expect the Astros to come out a little hot after last night’s clunker. The biggest issue for me is that they are generally best against LHPs at this point.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Seth Brown, Shea Langeliers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against RHPs.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs.
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Cleveland Guardians @ San Francisco Giants (-140)
Pitchers:
Guardians – Logan Allen
Giants – Kyle Harrison
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Neither team is overly potent against LHPs so the under feels like a great spot to be. Harrison is a super talented kid but his performances have been all over the place. His biggest issue has been the HR ball, especially by LHBs. Allen can be really solid against a weak SF lineup against LHBs. Matos is swinging it well and has been good against LHPs while Slater and Flores have traditionally done some damage to lefties.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Naylor, Andres Gimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 against LHPs.
SF 5-star plays: Luis Matos
4-star plays: Austin Slater, Wilmer Flores
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 against LHPs.
Atlanta Braves (-165) @ Philadelphia Phillies
Pitchers:
Braves – Spencer Strider
Phillies – Cristopher Sanchez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Atlanta Braves absolutely destroy LHPs so it’s really tough to not fall in love with them in this one. Sanchez has absolutely dominated LHBs but Matt Olson is on another level at the moment, so which one wins out? I may just have to give in and roll with Acuna as my dinger play since he grades out so well in this spot. Strider hasn’t been sharp in the second half but he’s capable of stepping up with big time performances. I like the way the top of the PHI lineup has been swinging it so I think Strider ends up struggling some.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Austin Riley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .241 against LHPs.
PHI 5-star plays: Trea Turner
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Brandon Marsh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against RHPs.
Washington Nationals @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-140)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Jackson Rutledge
Pirates – Connor Shelby/Quinn Priester
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Priester has been a touted prospect but he hasn’t had much success in the majors this season. Rutledge was a high draft pick who has struggled in the minors this season. I don’t love the idea of stacking both sides but I think there are some guys who have strong performances, making mini-stacks more viable for me. CJ Abrams is hot at the plate and his power/speed combination is great for our lineups.
WSH 5-star plays: CJ Abrams
4-star plays: Dominic Smith
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 against RHPs.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Jack Suwinski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs.
Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers (-115)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Braxton Garrett
Brewers – Trevor Megill/Colin Rea
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The Milwaukee pitchers are in a great spot against a struggling MIA offense. Rea isn’t an overly exciting play but the match-up gives him a boost, especially at a cheaper price tag. Megill is going to open and most likely throw just 1 inning but he does have the ability to throw multiples. Garrett is a guy that has massive upside but he hasn’t shown it in a while. The MIL lineup has been better against LHPs in the second half so it’s just an OK spot for Garrett.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Wendle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 against RHPs.
MIL 5-star plays: Mark Canha (DTD), Josh Donaldson
4-star plays: William Contreras, Willy Adames
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against LHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Houston Astros
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- Milwaukee Brewers
MLB Dinger of the Day – Ronald Acuna Jr, Braves
Oct 7, 2019; St. Louis, MO, USA; Atlanta Braves center fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. (13) hits a ground rule double in the ninth inning against the St. Louis Cardinals in game four of the 2019 NLDS playoff baseball series at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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