Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 9/12:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Justin Verlander
- Freddy Peralta
- Bryan Woo
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Chicago Cubs (-190) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Cubs – Javier Assad
Rockies – Chris Flexen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 12. The Monday night Coors game wasn’t overly exciting but we could see the Cubs wake up the bats in this spot. I am really looking forward to Crow-Armstrong making his debut and hopefully that’s tonight. Assad has been solid in the rotation for the Cubs and he gets a weak COL lineup, can he get it done? I’m not sure we have to go to him but he’s in the conversation as a dart throw.
CHC 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Seiya Suzuki
4-star plays: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against RHPs.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Elehuris Montero, Nolan Jones
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs.
Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox (-130) – Game 1
Pitchers:
Royals – Brady Singer
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I keep wanting to play Dylan Cease but he just hasn’t been as good this season. He does show flashes of his 2022 self but then he just sucks it up again. I think the White Sox are just a dysfunctional clubhouse at this point. Some of the White Sox bats have hit Singer really well in the past so we might want to look at their side in this game. Remember that teams will swap Game 1 and Game 2 starters last minute so make sure to monitor the lineups.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: MJ Melendez, Nelson Velazquez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs.
CHW 5-star plays: Andrew Vaughn
4-star plays: Eloy Jimenez, Yoan Moncada
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs.
Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox – Game 2
Pitchers:
Royals – Jordan Lyles
White Sox – Touki Toussaint
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Drew Waters, Nelson Velazquez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs.
CHW 5-star plays: Andrew Vaughn
4-star plays: Gavin Sheets, Yoan Moncada
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Minnesota Twins (-135)
Pitchers:
Rays – Zack Littell
Twins – Joe Ryan
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Ryan has allowed 27 HRs this season with 19 of those being hit by RHBs. That’s a big number but the Rays are very platoon heavy so maybe we see a strong LH lineup out of them tonight. I do think that this game leans toward the pitchers but there are obvious bats that we need to be on. Yandy Diaz is scorching again while the Twins combo of Lewis and Castro is super interesting for me. Littell has some reverse splits going on which plays strongly into Royce Lewis.
TB 5-star plays: Yandy Diaz
4-star plays: Isaac Paredes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .191 against RHPs.
MIN 5-star plays: Royce Lewis
4-star plays: Willi Castro
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 against RHPs.
St Louis Cardinals @ Baltimore Orioles (-195)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Adam Wainwright
Orioles – John Means
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total 0f 10. Tough to not love the Orioles bats against the artist formerly known as Adam Wainwright. As a baseball fan, I want to see Wainwright figure it out over his last few starts and get to the 200 mark. As a DFS guy, I don’t want him to figure it out so the Orioles put up 10 tonight. Means makes his return from the Tommy-John school of injuries. Some of the STL bats have been warm so it’s not an easy match-up.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Willson Contreras, Tyler O’Neill
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against LHPs.
BAL 5-star plays: Anthony Santander, Gunnar Henderson
4-star plays: Ryan O’Hearn, Aaron Hicks
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs.
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Arizona Diamondbacks @ New York Mets (EVEN)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Ryne Nelson
Mets – Jose Butto
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Butto has allowed just 1 HR but he walks a lot of guys at this point while Nelson isn’t a big K guy who has some HR issues but he’s been really solid on the road. The strong game total is really inviting and I think I like the Mets side more than the D’Backs at this point.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Corbin Carroll, Tommy Pham
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against RHPs.
NYM 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against RHPs.
New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox (-165) – Game 1
Pitchers:
Yankees – Randy Vasquez
Red Sox – Nick Pivetta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. For a game with a total of 10, I really have a hard time liking either offense right now. Most of the Yankees lineup has been struggling but the two guys below have hit Pivetta really well. A lot of the BOS lineup is blah overall and Vasquez has been surprisingly solid. We do have a total sitting at 10 so there are runs going to be scored at Fenway Park.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Wilyer Abreu, Justin Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against RHPs.
New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox (-125) – Game 2
Pitchers:
Yankees – Carlos Rodon
Red Sox – Kutter Crawford
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I am very interested in seeing what lineup the Yankees roll out in game 2. They have plenty of vets who could sit for Game 2, which would weaken their lineup to a point where Crawford would become a very interesting play. Rodon just hasn’t been good this season but the Red Sox are definitely worse against LHPs at this point. Much like the first game, I have a hard time seeing the reasoning behind a high game total.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Urias, Adam Duvall
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against LHPs.
Texas Rangers (-120) @ Toronto Blue Jays
Pitchers:
Rangers – Max Scherzer
Blue Jays – Hyun-Jin Ryu
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. I like the pitching match-up here but both are volatile given the opponent. Scherzer should bounce back but the TOR offense has been swinging it really well of late. Ryu has been solid but hasn’t showcased much for upside. He gets a struggle TEX lineup but there are a few bats that have been doing plenty of damage. Both Semien and Garver are on my short list for dinger calls tonight.
TEX 5-star plays: Mitch Garver, Marcus Semien
4-star plays: Corey Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 against LHPs.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero, Cavan Biggio
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .164 against RHPs.
Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners (-210)
Pitchers:
Angels – Patrick Sandoval
Mariners – Bryan Woo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Rodriguez is the leader in the clubhouse for my Dinger call this evening. He has 5 HRs over his last 7 games while also being 3 for 8 with 2 HRs against Sandoval. Woo has had his struggles against LHBs this season but will we see Ohtani or not tonight? I don’t know where SEA will fall in my stack rankings but I would imagine they end up in the top half of them.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Mike Moustakas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 against RHPs.
SEA 5-star plays: Julio Rodriguez
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, Dylan Moore
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against LHPs.
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Cincinnati Reds (-120) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Reds – Brandon Williamson
Tigers – Joey Wentz
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Wentz gives up plenty of HRs, especially to RHBs. The issue for the Reds is that nearly all of their “hot” bats are LH and most won’t be in the lineup against Wentz, I assume. Williamson is returning from the COVID list and he has an issue with HRs as well. The good news for him is that DET isn’t as dangerous as CIN is. Torkelson could definitely get him and Vierling is hot right now but most of the DET lineup is weak.
CIN 5-star plays: Spencer Steer
4-star plays: Noelvi Marte, Nick Senzel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against LHPs.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Spencer Torkelson, Matt Vierling
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against LHPs.
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-160)
Pitchers:
Padres – Michael Wacha
Dodgers – Lance Lynn
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. A chunk of the LAD lineup has been swinging it pretty well of late so they make a ton of sense to me tonight. Lynn shut down this SD squad in his 2nd start with the Dodgers but I am not sure I see that happening again. I like the way that some of the SD bats are swinging and I could have included Kim and Profar to the 3 guys below. If I had to choose one SP in this game to use, it’s Lynn but it feels gross.
SD 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, Kike Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 against RHPs.
Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros (-320)
Pitchers:
A’s – JP Sears
Astros – Justin Verlander
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Astros are both swinging it really well and facing an SP that they have had success against. Part of me really wants to go with Chas McCormick as my HR call but that seems a little too out there on a night where I think there are 6 or 7 viable Dinger calls. Verlander “should” be strong against OAK but we’ve seen this movie before and some guys tend to overlook OAK as an opponent. With that being said, Verlander being a veteran should help him remain focused.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Seth Brown, Shea Langeliers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against RHPs.
HOU 5-star plays: Jose Altuve, Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Chas McCormick, Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .200 against LHPs.
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Cleveland Guardians @ San Francisco Giants (-178)
Pitchers:
Guardians – Cal Quantrill
Giants – Sean Manaea
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. It’s really hard to not like Manaea tonight. I just need to know he’s actually starting because the CLE lineup is so weak against LHPs and the only guys doing much at all right now are their LHBs. The Giants lineup is rolling right now and that’s tough to stomach because I always love pitching in this ballpark and I think Quantrill is viable tonight. The decisions are going to be difficult this evening but Yastrzemski is definitely going to be a core play.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Andres Gimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 against LHPs.
SF 5-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski
4-star plays: Joc Pederson, Lamonte Wade
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs.
Atlanta Braves (-130) @ Philadelphia Phillies
Pitchers:
Braves – Max Fried
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Fried has been more impressive than Wheeler this season, at least to me. The issue here is that Wheeler has been stronger against ATL than Fried has been against PHI in previous meetings. I think we have a shot to see 10+ runs in a game started by each team’s ace and that’s weird to say. There’s a ton of BvP to like in this one, especially from the PHI side of the match-up.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna
4-star plays: Travis d’Arnaud, Austin Riley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .222 against RHPs.
PHI 5-star plays: Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 against LHPs.
Washington Nationals @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-145)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Joan Adon
Pirates – Bailey Falter
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. This is a very tough game to want to attack for runs. I realize neither pitcher is exciting but both guys are very capable of being respectable against weak offenses. I don’t mind mini-stacks of either side as the Nationals have a couple of my favorite bats against LHPs while the Pirates have some power at the top of the order. Nothing overly exciting in this one, though.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Lane Thomas, Riley Adams
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against LHPs.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Jack Suwinski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs.
Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers (-170)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Chargois/Edward Cabrera
Brewers – Freddy Peralta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Most of the MIL lineup has been swinging it really well of late so it’s a tough spot but Cabrera has been so good and he’s such an electric arm. Peralta has been dominant at home and his K’s have really skyrocketed over the last month. He gets a plus spot but he’s freaking expensive right now. I will definitely have MIL stacks but I don’t love it because Cabrera is just that strong.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jazz Chisholm, Joey Wendle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 against RHPs.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mark Canha, Willy Adames
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Houston Astros
- New York Mets
- Chicago Cubs
MLB Dinger of the Day – Julio Rodriguez, Mariners
May 22, 2023; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez (44) celebrates after hitting a grand slam home run during the sixth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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