3 games on the DFS MLB Express Slate today, making this a great little one to play along with the Main.
Today’s weather forecast is fairly clear, according to our MLB Weather Station graphic. We don’t have concerns here with rain. We do, however, have the winds blowing decently out to center at Wrigley giving us an 8/10 on the hitting environment scale!! Hopefully, this leads to a few #BombsAway calls coming through.
Apr 20, 2023; San Francisco, California, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Kodai Senga (34) throws against the San Francisco Giants during the first inning at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports
DFS MLB Pitchers Today
Kodai Senga ($10600) is about the strongest pitcher on this small slate. He has the most strikeout upside, and the only reason he isn’t the highest owned pitcher is because Dylan Cease is a brand name of sorts and is $1300 cheaper. Higher upside wins tournaments when it’s not the super chalk. Cease makes sense compared to the other offerings, but if playing Cubs stacks, you might consider getting off the highest owned plays elsewhere.
Also consider – Dylan Cease ($9300)
DFS MLB Hitters Today
Cody Bellinger was discussed in the Main Slate article today, so let’s include another Cub… Dansby Swanson ($3200). Dansby hits for a .357 woba and projects for nearly 4x value tonight (the highest Cub). You get 50 point upside with over a .200 ISO against a pitcher with a high contact ratio, high HR/9, and one that gives up nearly 4 walks per game. Allowing baserunners and allowing contact is something to target with……..opposing bats!
Marcus Semien ($3600) is usually on the more popular side, but his consistency has slumped a bit lately. However, tonight vs Dylan Cease, we might see a get-right performance. Cease throws a lot of 4-seam fastballs and sliders. Semien hits both pitch types well (.350 woba/.200 iso vs 4-seam, .330 woba/.180 iso vs slider). If not stacking Rangers, he makes for a slightly under the radar solo play.
Also consider – Adolis Garcia $3600, Eloy Jimenez $3200, Pete Alonso $4200
DFS MLB Stacks
The Chicago Cubs make for a great fade candidate tonight on the main slate and on the smaller express slate. But, on the express, they do project well above anyone else. Playing them is optimal. Fading them is a gamble, but a good one. If you play Chicago, you might consider getting a little different with your second stack…or making Chicago your second stack while using a lesser owned team as your primary stack.
Leverage is often misunderstood in DFS MLB. Recreational players love to apply fancy terms, but they fail to realize on larger slates ownership is diluted and not as useful. On small slates, however, it can be critical to your success.
New York Mets bats face Cole Ragans, a fringe major leaguer right now with a 5.23 ERA and very little work this season. Ragans gives up about 1.35 HR/9 and only strikes out about 6 batters per 9 innings pitched. (Tip – Ragans K-prop is set at 3.5 tonight…indicating Vegas expects a good bit of contact from the Mets). The top of the order has the power here. Focus on Alonso, Lindor, McNeil and build around them if including another.
Texas Rangers also fall under the radar a good bit tonight while still carrying a decent stack projection of 57 points (3rd highest on this slate, 2nd lowest ownership). This is the kind of leverage I like. I don’t need numbers here. TEX has been cold, but they are still the 2nd best offense on the season behind only ATL. They have plenty of talent in their bats to exceed projections any given night. I would focus on nights they are lower owned than they should be like tonight.
Also consider – Cincinnati Reds
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“The ULTIMATE Breakdown“ Slate Preview
