Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We’re back to another week, this time with a few more games than the usual Monday. We get four early games followed by an eight-game main slate, giving enough to appease most MLB DFS goers. For the rest of you, well, there’s always Friday. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We get a decent range of options today, though mother nature may or may not complicate things, as we’ll see about halfway through the games today. Provided they play as scheduled, Strider is an easy option for all formats. If they don’t, Cole could easily take his place for your all-purpose option (or you could save a buck and just take him either way). For tournaments, those two and Peralta offer plenty of reasonably safe upside. Or, if you’re feeling bold, Waldichuk offers some decent upside for the price, if you don’t mind picking on the Rangers’ offense in a few lineups. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early games
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres
We’ll kick things off with the early games, starting with the Dodgers and Padres. Gonsolin and Lugo get the start, and they will split a 9.0 total right down the middle. That seems fair, as this game could easily go either way, as both offenses are more or less in the same spot. There are a ton of expensive players here, so it may just come down to picking the correct budget bats.
Dodgers 4.5 star plays – Freeman, Betts
Dodgers 4 star plays – Muncy, Martinez/Smith
GPP note – An average-ish spot for these bats, Lugo is allowing much more power to lefties than he is to righties.
Padres 4.5 star plays – Soto
Padres 4 star plays – Tatis, Machado/Bogaerts
GPP note – Gonsolin is allowing decent contact and power to both sides, though a little more to lefties than to righties.
Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds
Next up we have the Marlins and Reds, with Perez and Williamson on the mound. We get a healthy 10.5 total for this game, with the visitors getting the nod. Perez will be back in action, so this will be a decent test for him in his return from his All-Star break assignment.
Marlins 4.5 star plays – Burger
Marlins 4 star plays – Arraez/Soler, De La Cruz
GPP note – Righties get the power advantage against Williamson, though he is allowing good xwOBA to lefties, too.
Reds 4.5 star plays – De La Cruz
Reds 4 star plays – Votto/Friedl, McLain
GPP note – Perez has displayed a high ceiling with the occasionally low floor against competent offenses, which this surely is. Hedging wouldn’t be a terrible idea if you can’t decide which way to go.
Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers
The Twins and Tigers are up next, with Lopez and Wentz as the starters. We move down to an 8.5 total for this one, though once again, the visitors get the nod from Vegas. Though that’s probably fair with Lopez leading the way for Minnesota, don’t overlook Wentz completely, as he’s not exactly a pushover, despite his price tag.
Twins 4 star plays – Correa
Twins 3.5 star plays – Polanco, Farmer
GPP note – Wentz has some strikeout upside in him but is no stranger to allowing multiple homers in a single outing. You can hedge here too if you’re wanting a few budget SP2 options.
Tigers 4 star plays – Greene
Tigers 3.5 star plays – McKinstry, Rogers
GPP note – Lopez isn’t the best target to attack, but he is allowing some power to both sides, making small or medium-sized contrarian stacks viable.
Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies
We’ll round out the early games with the Nationals and Phillies, with Williams and Suarez as the starters. Another healthy total awaits us here, this time at a 10.0. Unfortunately, some very concerning weather also awaits us, and there’s a good chance that this game gets pushed out to another day.
Nationals 4 star plays – Thomas, Meneses
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Abrams
GPP note – Not a whole lot of Vegas support here, though Suarez is allowing good contact and power to both sides with a strikeout rate that isn’t too threatening.
Phillies 5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 4 star plays – Schwarber/Stott, Castellanos/Bohm/Realmuto
GPP note – Same idea as above, except that this offense gets a ton of Vegas support, and there are bigger names to spend some salary on.
Watching the weather is half the battle when it comes to MLB DFS. The DFS Army Weather Station has you covered, from games that have delay and postponement potential to games that could have significant winds that will play a role in selecting a team to stack or a pitcher to use.
Main slate
Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates
We’ll switch over to the main slate next, starting with the Braves and Pirates. Strider and Bido will get the start here, along with an 8.5 total. That bad weather will threaten this game too, so be sure to keep an eye on the skies, as we all know that these Atlanta players will be a key point to this slate.
Braves 4.5 star plays – Acuna, Riley
Braves 4 star plays – Olson/Albies/Ozuna
GPP note – The Braves are in play as they always are, though Bido has done a good job of minimizing power allowed.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Suwinski/Reynolds, McCutchen
GPP note – As a wise catcher once said, “don’t stand on the tracks when the train’s coming through.”
Chicago Cubs at New York Mets
Next up we have the Cubs and Mets, with Smyly and Senga on the mound. This will make three in a row with some bad looking weather in the area, so once again, keep an eye on things so that mother nature doesn’t tank any lineups for you.
Cubs 4.5 star plays – Bellinger
Cubs 4 star plays – Swanson/Happ, Hoerner
GPP note – If not for the weather, this could be a good spot to hedge, as there is plenty of upside on both sides of this matchup.
Mets 4.5 star plays – Alonso/Lindor
Mets 4 star plays – Alvarez
GPP note – Same idea as above, except that Smyly allows plenty of power to go with his strikeout upside, where Senga typically does not.
Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardians
Ryu and the Blue Jays will take on Williams and the Guardians next, complete with an 8.5 total. There are yet again some weather concerns at hand here, though this time it doesn’t look quite as bad. It may not be bad enough for a postponement, but I could see a delay take place. The big question will be if that delay happens before or after opening pitch, so as usual, keep an eye on things.
Blue Jays 4.5 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Merrifield/Chapman, Belt
GPP note – Williams allows good xwOBA to both sides and moderate power to lefties.
Guardians 4 star plays – Ramirez
Guardians 3.5 star plays – Kwan, Gimenez/Fry
GPP note – It’s hard telling what we’ll get from Ryu, but he didn’t exactly show dominant stuff in his 2023 debut.
Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox
We finally move away from the bad weather with our next game, this one between my Royals and the Red Sox. Ragans and Bello get there start for this one, along with a 9.5 total. The home team is the strong favorite for this one, which is fair, but KC sure has been pulling out some wins out of thin air as of late.
Royals 4 star plays – Witt/Perez
Royals 3.5 star plays – Melendez
GPP note – KC has shown some signs of life and Bello can be a bit hit-or-miss, so this isn’t the worst hedge spot you could ask for.
Red Sox 4.5 star plays – Devers
Red Sox 4 star plays – Duvall/Turner, Yoshida
GPP note – Another option for hedging a budget SP2, Ragans apparently has random 6-8+ strikeout upside (who knew?), and there are plenty of bats on this offense that can hit for a ton.
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New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox
Next up we’ll get the Yankees and White Sox, with Cole and Cease on the mound. This game has the lowest total on the day at a 7.5, though considering the starters, that’s not too hard to agree with. I could see this one hitting the under without too much trouble, which makes both starters interesting in their own right.
Yankees 4.5 star plays – Judge
Yankees 4 star plays – Stanton/Torres
GPP note – Not the best spot one could ask for, though Cease does allow moderate contact and power to lefties on occasion.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Robert
GPP note – Refer to previously mentioned quote from the wise catcher.
Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers
Lambert and the Rockies will take on Peralta and the Brewers next, and we get an 8.5 total for this one. The home team is the heavy favorite here, which is certainly fair, but I could see Colorado exceeding expectations by a slight margin (not that I think that they’ll win, but I do think that they can put up a decent fight).
Rockies 4 star plays – McMahon
Rockies 3.5 star plays – Profar/Tovar, Montero
GPP note – Tough spot against Peralta, though there are enough decent pieces here to run some rather inexpensive contrarian stacks.
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Santana/Contreras/Adames
GPP note – Lambert allows decent power to both sides and doesn’t carry a ton of strikeout prowess, making this a solid spot to go to.
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Angels
We’ll head out west for our final two games, the first between the Giants and Angels. Webb and Sandoval get the start here, along with another 8.5 total. Vegas has San Francisco as the slight favorites, and while they do have the pitching advantage, I like the Angels’ offense better here. We’ll see how it goes, but I think that LA can hold down the fort.
Giants 4 star plays – Flores, Estrada/Davis
Giants 3.5 star plays – Slater
GPP note – Sandoval has been quote strict to lefties, but righties are getting some decent x/wOBA out of him.
Angels 4.5 star plays – Ohtani
Angels 4 star plays – Moniak/Moustakas, Cron
GPP note – There are certainly better spots to attack today, but Webb does allow some solid contact and power to righties, so you could try your luck with some stacks here instead of just one-offing Ohtani.
Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics
We’ll wrap things up with the Rangers and Athletics, with Dunning and Waldichuk on the mound. The Rangers are the heavy favorites here, which shouldn’t be a surprise to anybody, but I do like some of these budget players from Oakland. We’ll see if they can live up to my hype, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see some of them return some healthy value.
Rangers 4.5 star plays – Seager/Semien
Rangers 4 star plays – Garcia/Lowe
GPP note – Waldichuk does allow some power to both sides, but as previously mentioned, does carry some strikeout upside. That puts him in play as a budget SP2 hedging option.
Athletics 4 star plays – Gelof/Ruiz
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Brown/Rooker
GPP note – Lefties get the statcast advantage against Dunning, so some of these bats could be used in some small or medium-sized stacks. There’s hardly any Vegas support, but there will hardly be any ownership to go with it.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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Jul 26, 2023; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Spencer Strider (99) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports
