Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. It’s Friday, and we head into the weekend with our usual slew of early games followed by a larger main slate. This time around, it’s only an 11-gamer, but that doesn’t mean there’s not plenty to go over. With that in mind, let’s do just that!
A look at pitchers
We do get a decent range of options today, though none of the pitchers really stand out in terms of strong carnage ratings. That means that we could see a few more fireworks than usual, so selecting our arms will be a bit more important than it normally is. For basic cash games, somebody like Nola is somebody we’ll probably want to look to. For tournaments there are plenty of options with high ceilings, though most of the high-dollar arms are facing offenses ranging from competent to stout, which will certainly hurt their floors. Darvish and Castillo are two such options, but there are some budget options that look intriguing as well. At any rate, be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early games
Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs
We’ll kick things off with the early games, starting with the Braves and Cubs. Fried and Hendricks will get the start here, and with them, an 8.5 total. Fried will be making his return here, so as usual, it’s not a bad idea to hedge since a pitcher’s first game back can be really good or really bad for them.
Braves 4.5 star plays – Acuna
Braves 4 star plays – Olson/Albies, Riley/Murphy
GPP note – These bats have plenty of upside as usual, though sometimes, Hendricks can be quite the mood killer for fantasy baseball purposes.
Cubs 4 star plays – Swanson/Hoerner, Bellinger
Cubs 3.5 star plays – Happ
GPP note – These bats have been hitting lefties well, though we know the upside that Fried has. It wouldn’t be a bad spot to do some hedging.
Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers
Next up we have the Rays and Tigers, with Littell and Olson on the mound. We get a 9.0 total for this one, and Vegas has the Rays moderately favored for this game. A few months ago I wouldn’t have thought that they would be this close in Vegas’ eyes, but here we are.
Rays 5 star plays – Franco
Rays 4 star plays – Arozarena/Diaz, Lowe
GPP note – Olson allows good power to both sides, though more of it has been going to lefties.
Tigers 4 star plays – Greene
Tigers 3.5 star plays – McKinstry, Rogers
GPP note – Littell isn’t as great of a target as his salary would indicate, but he does allow some power to lefties.
Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds
Rounding out the early games will be this matchup between the Nationals and Reds, as Corbin will take on Ashcraft. We move up to a healthy 10.5 total, with the home team being favored quite heavily. Considering the matchup, it’s not hard to see why, but don’t overlook the other side as they have a decent matchup as well.
Nationals 4 star plays – Abrams/Thomas
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Meneses
GPP note – Ashcraft allows good power to lefties and typically doesn’t offer a ton of strikeout upside, making this a decent spot to attack.
Reds 5 star plays – De La Cruz
Reds 4 star plays – McLain, Votto/Fraley/Stephenson
GPP note – Corbin is always a fun target to attack, and seeing that he allows equal xwOBA to both sides, you can go after him however you see fit.
Main slate
Houston Astros at New York Yankees
Switching over to the main slate, we’ll start with the Astros and Yankees. Brown and Severino will get the start here, along with a 9.0 total. Vegas has the Astros favored this time around, though there are some possible weather concerns to watch out for, so don’t let that sneak up on you.
Astros 5 star plays – Alvarez
Astros 4 star plays – Altuve/Bregman/Tucker
GPP note – Severino has been allowing good contact and power to both sides in his rough 2023 campaign, so this is a good spot for these bats to bounce back after a somewhat quiet night.
Yankees 4.5 star plays – Judge
Yankees 4 star plays – Stanton/Torres, Bauers/McKinney
GPP note – Brown allows some power to both sides and carries solid strikeout upside, making him a decent hedge target today.
New York Mets at Baltimore Orioles
Next up we have the Mets and Orioles, with Peterson and Kremer on the mound. Another 9.0 total, the O’s get the nod from Vegas here by a fair margin. For the most part I think that’s fair, but both sides are in a good spot here, so don’t be surprised to see a little bit of extra back-and-forth.
Mets 4.5 star plays – Lindor
Mets 4 star plays – Alonso, Nimmo/McNeil, Vogelbach
GPP note – Overall a solid spot for the lefties, though Kremer has been pretty strict to righties.
Orioles 4.5 star plays – Santander/Rutschman
Orioles 4 star plays – Mountcastle/Henderson
GPP note – Peterson is allowing more wOBA to lefties than he is to righties, so don’t be afraid to take some shots with them, too.
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Kansas City Royals at Philadelphia Phillies
Lyles and my Royals will take on Nola and the Phillies next, and with them, a 9.0 total. There’s not much to say here, as I think it’s pretty obvious how this one will go, unless Nola just drops a complete dud.
Royals 4 star plays – Witt/Perez
Royals 3.5 star plays – Melendez
GPP note – Attacking Nola isn’t the most fun thing to do (especially not with these bats), but he does allow some power to both sides, so small contrarian stacks could be used here.
Phillies 5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 4 star plays – Schwarber/Stott, Castellanos
GPP note – Lyles allows good xwOBA to both sides and plenty of power to lefties, so you can go after him however you’d like to.
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians
Moving right along, our next matchup will be between the White Sox and Guardians, with Clevinger and Allen on the hill. We get a modest 8.5 total for this game, with the home team once again getting Vegas’ approval. I do think that there’s a reasonable chance for Chicago to sneak out a W, or at least make things interesting for a while.
White Sox 4.5 star plays – Robert
White Sox 4 star plays – Jimenez, Vaughn/Anderson/Moncada
GPP note – Righties have the statcast advantage against Allen, which bodes well for this offense, and their sub-4.0 implied total should keep their ownership down.
Guardians 4.5 star plays – Ramire
Guardians 4 star plays – Naylow/Kwan
GPP note – Traditional splits tend to be the way to go against Clevinger, so sticking to the basics may be the move for this offense.
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox
Next up we have the Blue Jays and Red Sox, with Manoah and Paxton on the mound. We get a nice 10.0 total here, but unfortunately, we also have some not-so-nice looking storms looming after opening pitch. As usual, be sure to keep an eye on the skies, as this game will carry plenty of ownership.
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 3.5 star plays – Merrifield/Chapman
GPP note – Tough spot against Paxton, but these bats do offer plenty of upside, so going contrarian or hedging is in play.
Red Sox 5 star plays – Devers
Red Sox 4 star plays – Casas/Duran/Yoshida, Turner
GPP note – Solid matchup for these bats against Manoah, who is allowing good xwOBA to both sides and extra power to lefties.
Miami Marlins at Texas Rangers
We’ll head down to Texas for our next game, as Luzardo and the Marlins will take on Montgomery and the Rangers. An 8.5 total is where this one will start, though it’s tough to say where it may go from there. I could see the total staying the same with less support going to the Rangers, mostly due to the pitching matchup, but we’ll see how that goes.
Marlins 4 star plays – Soler/Burger, Arraez/Chisholm
Marlins 3.5 star plays – Bell/De La Cruz
GPP note – Hardly any Vegas love here, but Montgomery does allow good power to both sides with just an average strikeout rate, so going semi-contrarian here isn’t a terrible idea.
Rangers 4 star plays – Seager, Semien
Rangers 3.5 star plays – Lowe, Grossman
GPP note – Tough spot against Luzardo, as he’s been strict to both sides and offers solid strikeout upside. It’s not a bad spot to hedge.
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Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
Priester and the Pirates will take on Rea and the Brewers next, and we get a 9.0 total for this one. We continue the trend of home teams being favored, but like the previous game, I think that the underdog could make some noise here. If they do, they’ll do it with low salaries and even lower ownership!
Pirates 4 star plays – Suwinski/Reynolds, McCutchen
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Davis/Hayes
GPP note – Similar to Miami, there’s not much Vegas love here, but Rea does allow some power to both sides and these bats could have a decent day with reduced ownership.
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Santana, Contreras/Adames
GPP note – Priester allows good contact and power to both sides with a below-average strikeout rate, so you can go here with confidence.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Minnesota Twins
Next up we’ll have Kelly and the Diamondbacks set to take on Ober and the Twins, as we move down to another 8.5 total. I could see this total dropping by a little bit, though nothing too major. While I don’t see it being a complete dud, I don’t know that this is the game that will go off the rails, either.
Diamondbacks 4.5 star plays – Carroll, Marte
Diamondbacks 3.5 star plays – Walker/Gurriel/Perdomo
GPP note – A very average spot for these bats, though Ober is allowing more power to righties than he is to lefties.
Twins 4 star plays – Buxton/Correa/Julien
Twins 3.5 star plays – Kepler/Polanco
GPP note – Kelly has some upside in him but he’s also allowing decent contact to both sides and some extra power to lefties, so stacks of any size could be used here.
Colorado Rockies at St Louis Cardinals
The Rockies and Cardinals will square off next, as Flexen and Wainwright get the start for their squads. A 9.5 total, I see this game getting some ‘over’ action, as both teams are in a great spot to do some damage. It may not be Coors, but with these two on the mound, it doesn’t really need to be.
Rockies 4 star plays – McMahon/Profar
Rockies 3.5 star plays – Tovar/Toglia/Montero/Rodgers
GPP note – Not a ton of Vegas support here, but attacking Wainwright is always on the table, so don’t be afraid to roll out some heavy Colorado stacks.
Cardinals 4.5 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado
Cardinals 4 star plays – Gorman/Nootbaar, Contreras/O’Neil
GPP note – Great spot for these bats too, though they will undoubtably carry more ownership.
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels
We’ll head out west for our final two games, starting with the Mariners and Angels. Castillo and Detmers get the start here, as we move down once again, this time to an 8.0 total. Overall, I think that’s a fair starting point, but I do see this game going the under.
Mariners 4 star plays – Rodriguez
Mariners 3.5 star plays – Suarez/Raleigh/Hernandez
GPP note – Detmers does allow some power to both sides but also carries a healthy chunk of strikeout upside, so if you go here, consider hedging.
Angels 4.5 star plays – Ohtani
Angels 3.5 star plays – Moniak/Moustakas/Cron
GPP note – Same as above, just with Castillo carrying a higher price tag.
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres
And finally, we’ll wrap things up with the Dodgers and Padres, as Miller and Darvish will face off with an 8.5 total. The under/over of this game will likely depend on how our starters do, as both certainly have the capability of silencing their opponent for a solid 5-7 innings. If you haven’t already, consider hedging here, as there’s plenty of upside all over this one.
Dodgers 4 star plays – Freeman/Betts
Dodgers 3.5 star plays – Muncy/Smith
GPP note – It’s Darvish, so hedging is always an option since both sides offer plenty of upside. Lefties have the statcast advantage against him.
Padres 4.5 star plays – Soto
Padres 4 star plays – Tatis/Machado, Bogaerts
GPP note – Again, same as above, except that Miller is cheaper and has allowed more contact and power to both sides instead of just to lefties.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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Apr 7, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Max Fried (54) receives a gold glove before a game against the San Diego Padres at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
