Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. It’s Thursday, and we’re met with the usual reduced amount of games as we prepare to transition into the weekend. This time around we get five early games followed by a six-game main slate, so there’s a little bit for most of us. As usual, there’s plenty to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We get a decent range of options today, though there seem to be more pitchers in decent spots in the early games compared to the main slate which has a lot in average or slightly worse spots. We’ll also see Scherzer and Flaherty in their first starts with their new team, so we’ll see how they fare. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
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Early games
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins
We’ll kick things off with an early showdown game between the Phillies and Marlins. Lorenzen and Cueto will get the start here, and with them, an 8.5 total. Vegas is giving a slight nod to the visitors here, and while it’s hard to put up an argument to that, I do see this being a tight game that will come down to the last couple of innings.
Phillies 4.5 star plays – Harper/Schwarber
Phillies 3.5 star plays – Stott, Castellanos
GPP note – Cueto can hold his own but is allowing decent power to lefties, so going with traditional splits looks to be the way to go.
Marlins 4 star plays – Arraez, Chisholm
Marlins 3.5 star plays – Soler/Burger
GPP note – Lorenzen has been tough to both sides, so it may be best to just go with the power bats and hope for the best.
Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers
Next up we have the White Sox and Rangers, with Toussaint and Scherzer on the mound. Mad Max will have his first start with his new team, so we’ll see if he lives up to their expectations or if he has some growing pains. Either way, we get a healthy 9.0 total here, with Scherzer and company as the heavy favorites.
White Sox 4 star plays – Robert
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Jimenez, Grandal
GPP note – It’s Scherzer, so hedging against his power isn’t a terrible idea.
Rangers 4.5 star plays – Seager
Rangers 4 star plays – Lowe/Semien
GPP note – Toussaint isn’t allowing a ton of power but he is allowing good xwOBA to lefties, so perhaps the power will be given up soon.
New York Mets at Kansas City Royals
Carrasco and the Mets will take on Singer and my Royals next, and we get a 9.0 total for this game. Vegas somehow has KC favored here (wooo!), so perhaps they’re banking on Carrasco having another rough start. If he does, these cheap bats could win somebody some money today.
Mets 4.5 star plays – Lindor/Alonso
Mets 4 star plays – Nimmo/McNeil
GPP note – Singer can be a bit of a wildcard, so it’s not a bad idea to either stack big and hope for an implosion or hedge and hope that he throws another double-digit strikeout gem.
Royals 4 star plays – Witt/Perez
Royals 3.5 star plays – Melendez
GPP note – Carrasco is allowing good xwOBA to both sides and a little extra power to righties.
Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays
We get another starter having a debut with their new team, as Flaherty and the Orioles will take on Gausman and the Blue Jays. We drop down to an 8.0 total here, and this will certainly be a much tougher task for Flaherty than what Scherzer will be facing. Everybody else will see that too, so perhaps he could be a contrarian pivot option.
Orioles 4 star plays – Santander/Rutschman
Orioles 3.5 star plays – Henderson/Mountcastle/O’Hearn
GPP note – Tough spot against Gausman, but he is allowing some power to both sides.
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 3.5 star plays – Merrifield/Chapman/Belt
GPP note – Flaherty has been allowing good contact and power to lefties, but may see a resurgence with a move to a new team.
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants
We’ll round out the early games with the Diamondbacks and Giants, as Pfaadt and Alexander will get the start. We get a modest 8.5 total, though I think that we’ll see that work its way up throughout the morning and early afternoon, even if by just a run or so.
Diamondbacks 4.5 star plays – Carroll
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Marte/Walker/Gurriel
GPP note – Junis allows good power to lefties but does carry some strikeout upside, so you can stack or hedge against him, as I suspect we’ll see him after Alexander throws his inning.
Giants 4.5 star plays – Davis
Giants 4 star plays – Pederson/Conforto
GPP note – Pfaadt allows good contact and power to both sides, so you can go with some medium-sized or big stacks and hope that they get to him quickly.
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Main slate
Houston Astros at New York Yankees
Switching over to the main slate, we’ll start with the Astros and Yankees. Javier and Schmidt will get the start here, along with a 9.0 total. Vegas has this one split down the middle, but all things considered, I see Houston taking this one. I like their matchup better and I feel like they must be sleeping on how much damage they can do to Schmidt, so we’ll see how the lines move throughout the day.
Astros 5 star plays – Alvarez
Astros 4 star plays – Altuve/Bregman/Tucker
GPP note – Schmidt allows good power to both sides and this team has been hammering righties, so stacks of any size are in play here.
Yankees 4.5 star plays – Judge
Yankees 4 star plays – Rizzo, Torres/Stanton, Bauers
GPP note – Javier can be tough and carries plenty of upside on his own merit, but does allow some power to both sides, so some small or medium-sized stacks are in play over here.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
Next up we have the Pirates and Brewers, with Keller and Houser on the mound. We get an 8.5 total for this one, with the home team as the slight favorite. If Pittsburgh can get an early jump on Houser, I think that they could take this one, provided that Keller can handle the Milwaukee offense. Either way, it should be a good one!
Pirates 4 star plays – Reynolds/Suwinski, McCutchen
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Davis/Hayes
GPP note – Houser is allowing good xwOBA to righties and some power to lefties, so this could be a decent spot for these bats to bounce back.
Brewers 4.5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Santana/Contreras
GPP note – Lefties are getting good power out of Keller, so you can stack here despite his salary being higher than the more common gas can you’d otherwise target.
Minnesota Twins at St Louis Cardinals
Gray and the Twins will take on Liberatore and the Cardinals next, and we get a 9.0 total for this one. Similar to the previous game, the visitors’ offense gets a good matchup, and so long as their starter can hold down the fort, they should be able to take this game. The main difference is that Vegas looks to agree with me on this one.
Twins 4.5 star plays – Buxton/Correa
Twins 4 star plays – Polanco
GPP note – Liberatore allows lots of contact and power to both sides of the plate, so there’s not a bad way to go here.
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado
Cardinals 3.5 star plays – Nootbaar/Gorman, Contreras/Walker
GPP note – It’s not a great matchup against Gray, but he is allowing moderate xwOBA to righties.
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Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs
Our next matchup will claim the highest total of the day at a healthy 10.0, as Weaver and the Reds will take on Taillon and the Cubs. Vegas likes the home team here, though I could see this one just being a flip of the coin. Both offenses will be in a spot to do some damage, and some hefty back-and-forth action would not at all surprise me at all. Perhaps the 10.0 starting total will prove to be too low?
Reds 4.5 star plays – De La Cruz
Reds 4 star plays – Votto/Friedl/McLain/Fraley
GPP note – Taillon can hold his own a bit better than what his salary would indicate, but he does allow some decent contact and power to lefties.
Cubs 4.5 star plays – Bellinger/Swanson
Cubs 4 star plays – Happ, Hoerner/Suzuki
GPP note – Weaver is allowing all sorts of contact and power to both sides and comes in with a low strikeout rate, making this a great spot on this slate.
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels
Woo and the Mariners will take on Ohtani and the Angels next, as we move down to an 8.5 total. For the most part, this game looks to be pretty straight forward, so we’ll see how interesting Ohtani can make it.
Mariners 4 star plays – Rodriguez
Mariners 3.5 star plays – Raleigh/Crawford
GPP note – It’s Ohtani, so go contrarian and/or hedge as you see fit
Angels 4 star plays – Moniak/Moustakas, Cron
Angels 3.5 star plays – Renfroe/Grichuk
GPP note – A decent spot overall, though Woo has been quite strict to righties, so you may want to limit the RvR exposure.
Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Dodgers
We’ll wrap things up with the Athletics and Dodgers, as Sears will take on Urias with another 8.5 total. This one looks to be pretty straight forward as well, with Vegas marking the home team down as the heavy favorite. If nothing else, I suppose that going contrarian here would at least be inexpensive?
Athletics 4 star plays – Rooker
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Laureano
GPP note – Not a very good spot by any means, though Urias is allowing occasional power to lefties.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Betts/Freeman
Dodgers 4 star plays – Smith/Rosario/Muncy/Taylor
GPP note – A fine spot overall, but Sears is allowing more power to lefties than he is to righties, so consider going LvL to help with ownership.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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Sep 7, 2022; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Royals third baseman Bobby Witt Jr. (7) pours candy on Kansas City Royals designated hitter Salvador Perez (13) after the Royals walk off win against the Cleveland Guardians at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports
