Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. It’s one of those wild Mondays in which we get a large main slate, this time in the 12-game variety. Two early games offer a mini-slate and showdowns, giving something for everybody today. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
There are a lot of pitchers to choose from today, though many of them sort of land in the “average” range of the spectrum. On the good side, we do have Gausman that looks to be a good cash game option, and perhaps even Woo as an SP2 over on DK. For tournaments there are a handful of pitchers with 500+ KSCORES, such as Sale and Snell. We also have a few gas cans that we’ll probably want to stay far away from, such as Gomber who will be facing the Braves at Coors – we’ll keep him in our thoughts and prayers. Anyway, be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in!
Early games
New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers
We’ll kick things off with the early games, starting with the Yankees and Tigers. We get a 9.0 total for this game, which is split right down the middle. It’s a little funny for me to see that, but with the way these two teams have looked, I’m not surprised. Go Tigers!
Yankees 5 star plays – Judge
Yankees 4 star plays – Torres/Stanton, Volpe
GPP note – Good spot for these bats as Olson is allowing equally good contact and power to both sides of the plate.
Tigers 4.5 star plays – Greene
Tigers 4 star plays – Carpenter/Baddoo/Torkelson, McKinstry/Baez
GPP note – Same as above except that there are fewer household names here.
Los Angeles Angels at Philadelphia Phillies
Giolito and the Angels will take on Walker and the Phillies in our second early game, along with another 9.0 total. Vegas likes the home team here, and as long as Walker can navigate Ohtani (or just intentionally walk him), I don’t see why Philly couldn’t take this one.
Angels 5 star plays – Ohtani
Angels 4 star plays – Moustakas, Moniak
GPP note – Walker allows decent contact to both sides of the plate but lefties are getting about twice the ISO out of him than righties are.
Phillies 5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 4 star plays – Schwarber/Stott, Castellanos/Turner, Cave
GPP note – Attacking a name-brand pitcher isn’t the most fun thing to do, but Giolito is allowing plenty of contact and power to both sides of the plate.
Main slate
Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles
It’s main slate time now, starting with the White Sox and Orioles. Kopech and Rodriguez will get the start here, along with yet another 9.0 total. We do have some possible rain concerns here, so do your due diligence and keep an eye on the skies as we approach lock.
White Sox 4 star plays – Robert
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Benintendi/Anderson/Moncada/Jimenez
GPP note – A seemingly surprising low total against a budget pitcher, but Rodriguez has been holding his own quite well, so going contrarian is risky.
Orioles 4.5 star plays – Rutschman/Henderson
Orioles 4 star plays – Santander/Mountcastle
GPP note – Kopech is a great target to attack as usual, and there’s no bad bat to take here.
Washington Nationals at Toronto Blue Jays
Next up we have the Nationals and Blue Jays, with Gray and Gausman on the hill. An 8.5 total, Vegas has the home team down as the heavy favorites, and it’s really hard to argue against that. This may be one of those games to not get cute with, as there are better spots to do that with today.
Nationals 4 star plays – Abrams
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Thomas/Meneses
GPP note – Tough spot against Gausman, though he does allow some power to both sides on occasion, making small contrarian squads somewhat viable.
Blue Jays 4.5 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Merrifield/Belt/Varsho
GPP note – Another great spot on the day, Gray allows good contact to both sides and lefties are getting a good amount of power out of him.
Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox
Javier and the Astros will take on Sale and the Red Sox next, as we move up to a 10.0 total. It’s hard to say that’s a bit too much of a total considering the offenses we have here, though I’m going to go with my gut and say we’ll see the under by just a hair. Here’s hoping for more strikeouts from Sale!
Astros 4 star plays – Altuve/Bregman, Alvarez/Tucker
Astros 3.5 star plays – McCormick
GPP note – Sale is limiting power and is starting to rack up the strikeouts, so this could be a good spot to hedge if you can’t pick sides.
Red Sox 4.5 star plays – Devers
Red Sox 4 star plays – Verdugo/Yoshida, Turner/Casas
GPP note – Good spot for these bats, as Javier is allowing good power and contact to both sides of the plate with a slightly below-average strikeout rate.
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Texas Rangers at New York Mets
Moving right along, we’ll next have Gray and the Rangers set to take on Megill and the Mets. We’re back to a 9.0 total for this one, with the visitors getting a slight nod from Vegas. Personally, I like them more than just a nod, and I think they’ll take this one by more than just one run.
Rangers 5 star plays – Seager
Rangers 4 star plays – Semien/Lowe, Garcia/Garver
GPP note – Megill is allowing very good contact and power to both sides of the plate with a below-average strikeout rate, making this yet another solid spot to attack.
Mets 4.5 star plays – Lindor/Alonso
Mets 4 star plays – Nimmo/McNeil
GPP note – Gray is allowing some decent contact to lefties but he’s limiting power to both sides, so be careful not to get carried away here.
Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins
The Guardians and Twins are next, with Curry and Maeda on the mound. This 8.5 total has the home team as the favorite, though only slightly more-so than the Rangers were. Again, I think that Vegas is being a little conservative here, and I expect the Twins to take it by 2-3 runs.
Guardians 4 star plays – Ramirez
Guardians 3.5 star plays – Kwan/Calhoun
GPP note – Overall a tough spot against Maeda, though he does allow random power to righties.
Twins 4.5 star plays – Correa/Polanco
Twins 4 star plays – Julien/Kepler, Lewis
GPP note – Another good spot on the day, Curry allows good contact and power to both sides with a low strikeout rate, making stacks of any size in play here.
San Diego Padres at St Louis Cardinals
Snell and the Padres will take on Wainwright and the Cardinals next, along with a 9.5 total. The visitors are favored by almost 1.5 runs here, and while that’s a bit more like it, I expect a bit of a blowout here. That is, if the Padres can stay awake while Snell is mowing down the non-Goldschmidt Cards.
Padres 5 star plays – Soto
Padres 4 star plays – Machado/Tatis, Bogaerts
GPP note – Wainwright continues to be a great target to attack, and this spot is no different. Hand selection does not matter against him.
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt
Cardinals 3.5 star plays – O’Neill/Edman
GPP note – Tough spot for a sleepy offense, so I can’t recommend a whole lot of action here.
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs
We continue our Midwest slate of games with the Brewers and Cubs next, with Miley and Taillon as the starters. A 9.0 total, Vegas has this one split mostly evenly, with just a slight nod to the home team. I’ll side with them and say that the Cubbies will take it, but by how much will probably just depend on which Miley shows up.
Brewers 4.5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Santana/Contreras, Tellez/Adames
GPP note – An okay spot overall, lefties have the statcast advantage, making them the better targets here.
Cubs 4.5 star plays – Bellinger/Happ
Cubs 4 star plays – Happ/Swanson, Candelario/Suzuki
GPP note – Miley is good at two things: throwing random gems and imploding. He makes a solid hedge target since it’s pretty hard to tell which version of him is going to show up.
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Pittsburgh Pirates at Kansas City Royals
Next up we have Oviedo and the Pirates taking on Greinke and my royals, along with another 9.0 total (there really are a lot of these today, aren’t there?). Vegas has this game split down the middle, and while I’ll be called a homer for saying it, I like my guys here today. I think that Greinke will pitch above his salary and keep Pittsburgh in check just long enough to take the W, so we’ll see if he can live up to my hype or not.
Pirates 4.5 star plays – Reynolds
Pirates 4 star plays – McCutchen/Hayes, Bae/Suwinski
GPP note – Greinke is another pitcher that can be a bit random, so hedging here for a budget SP2 isn’t a bad idea, either. Otherwise, lefties have the advantage against him.
Royals 4.5 star plays – Witt/Perez
Royals 4 star plays – Melendez/Garcia
GPP note – A better spot for the lefties, though the two big righties are certainly worth a look as well.
Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies
It’s our Coors game next, and this time we have…oh, the Braves? Well that’s going to be quite a test for Gomber and the Rockies, so we’ll see if he can survive for a while or if he’ll get to head to the showers in the first inning. Either way, expect a ton of ownership from this one!
Braves 5 star plays – Acuna/Olson
Braves 4.5 star plays – Riley/Ozuna
GPP note – Oh boy.
Rockies 4.5 star plays – Blackmon/McMahon
Rockies 4 star plays – Tovar/Diaz/Jones
GPP note – Elder has been quite tough on righties but has been a good target for lefties, so these bats are in play as they usually are here.
Late games
Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners
We’ll head out west for our late games now, starting with the Athletics and Mariners. Muller and Woo will get the start here, and while I don’t yet have any insight from Vegas, I expect that they’ll pick the home team by a fair amount.
Athletics 4 star plays – Rooker/Gelof
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Brown/Noda
GPP note – Not a great spot against Woo, who is only allowing moderate power to lefties.
Mariners 5 star plays – Rodriguez
Mariners 4 star plays – Suarez/Hernandez/Crawford, France
GPP note – Solid spot against Muller, making this a good spot to keep the momentum going for these bats. Hand matchup shouldn’t matter much as he’s allowing equally high power to both sides of the plate.
Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants
Next up we’ll have Abbott and the Reds set to take on Harrison and the Giants. A modest 8.5 total is what we get for this one, with the home team as the slight favorite. I could see this game being a bit of a dud, as it’s not a great place to hit and there are some key bats missing. Perhaps De La Cruz can carry his squad all by himself?
Reds 4.5 star plays – De La Cruz
Reds 4 star plays – McLain
GPP note – This isn’t exactly a hitter’s paradise, and Vegas isn’t super-hot on this offense today. Lefties are getting more power out of Harrison, though it is a small sample size.
Giants 4.5 star plays – Flores/Estrada
Giants 4 star plays – Davis/Slater, DeJong/Bailey
GPP note – Another decent hedge target, Abbott allows slightly above-average to both sides of the plate but does carry a solid strikeout rate.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers
And finally, we’ll wrap things up with the Diamondbacks and Dodgers, with Gallen and Miller on the mound. While Vegas does like the home team, it’s not by as much as it could be, though having a stud on the other side certainly makes a difference. This one seems a bit more interesting than the modest 8.5 total we get for it, so I’m anxious to see this one play out.
Diamondbacks 4.5 star plays – Carroll/Marte
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Walker/Gurriel/Pham
GPP note – Miller has some reverse splits working against him as he’s allowing more contact and power to righties than to lefties, so don’t be afraid to grab some RvR bats.
Dodgers 4.5 star plays – Freeman/Betts
Dodgers 4 star plays – Muncy/Smith
GPP note – A stud meets a potent offense, making this an expensive hedging option. That part aside, Gallen does allow decent power to both sides, so hand matchup doesn’t matter a whole lot here.
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And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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Aug 28, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Mariners mascot Moose waves a flag following a 15-2 victory against the Kansas City Royals at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
