Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We get 10 games on this Monday: two of them acting as late-afternoon early games with the others forming an 8-game main slate. It’s not a bad way to start a new week, so let’s see what we have to work with!
A look at pitchers
We have an interesting day ahead of us as far as pitching is concerned, though perhaps not in a good way. We do at least have Castillo as an all-around option, so he may be who we need to look to for cash games. As far as almost everybody else though, most seem to be in an average or worse matchup, and there are very few offenses that Vegas has down for under 4.0 runs. Giolito and Toussaint do at least break the 500+ KSCORE mark, but they’re not exactly facing incompetent offenses. Those that are facing lesser offenses, such as Davidson against Oakland, may not even see one full inning, so you’ll really be rolling the dice there. It’s a doozy of a day as far as pitching is concerned, so be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early games
Chicago Cubs at Detroit Tigers
We’ll kick things off with the Cubs and Tigers, with Assad and Faedo on the mound. An 8.5 total, Vegas has Chicago as the slight favorites here, though I was expecting them to get a little bit more than one half of a run worth of love. We’ll see how it goes, but perhaps it’s a sign of things to come today.
Cubs 4.5 star plays – Bellinger
Cubs 4 star plays – Happ/Hoerner, Swanson/Suzuki
GPP note – Faedo allows above-average power to both sides along with extra xwOBA to righties, so don’t neglect the power righties.
Tiger 4 star plays – Greene
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Torkelson/Baddoo/Carpenter
GPP note – Assad has been strict for the most part but does allow some power to lefties.
San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies
Our second and final early game will be between the Giants and Phillies, with Alexander and Nola on the mound. Another 8.5 total, this time Vegas has the favored team by a little over a run, so I suppose that’s a little better. Seeing that Nola has been no stranger to giving up some power this season, I could certainly see an upset happening.
Phillies 4.5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 4 star plays -Turner/Schwarber/Castellanos/Realmuto, Stott
GPP note – It’s a bullpen game, so going with those who are seeing the ball well and don’t mind a same-handed matchup may be the way to go.
Giants 4 star plays – Conforto
Giants 3.5 star plays – Pederson, Flores/Davis
GPP note – Not the best of spots against Nola, though he does still allow some homers to go along with his strikeout upside.
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Main slate
St Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates
We’ll switch over to the main slate next, starting with the Cardinals and Pirates. Rom and Falter get the start here, and they’ll share the highest total on the slate with a 10.5. Vegas has that split mostly down the middle with a slight bump to the visitors, which is always a little scary with how random that offense can be. Either way, there should be some fantasy goodness to find here, so it’s a good start.
Cardinals 4.5 star plays – Goldschmidt
Cardinals 4 star plays – Arenado/Contreras/O’Neill
GPP note – Falter is allowing good contact to both sides but it’s the lefties who have been getting more power out of him.
Pirates 4.5 star plays – Hayes
Pirates 4 star plays – Reynolds/McCutchen, Bae/Joe
GPP note – Who knows what we’ll get against Rom, but Vegas seems to think that it’ll be quite a bit, so stacks of any size and any hand are viable here.
New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
Next up we have the Mets and Braves, with Peterson and Winans on the mound. The other game to share a 10.5 total, Vegas has the home team as heavy favorites here. Winans held his own quite well against the Mets not too long ago, so we’ll see if he can do it again or if they’ll get some payback against him.
Mets 4 star plays – Lindor/Alonso
Mets 3.5 star plays – Nimmo/McNeil, Vogelbach
GPP note – Winans held his own quite well in his debut against this squad, so going back to him or hedging may not be a bad idea.
Braves 5 star plays – Acuna/Olson
Braves 4 star plays – Murphy/Riley/Ozuna
GPP note – Vegas loves ‘em and so do we. Righties have the statcast advantage against Peterson, but lefties may come in with less ownership.
Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros
Paxton and the Red Sox will face Javier and the Astros next, as we move down to a 9.0 total. This is a classic tale of two potent offenses facing two pitchers that have plenty of upside but have been finding some bumps in the road, so it’ll be interesting to see how this one plays out.
Red Sox 4.5 star plays – Devers
Red Sox 4 star plays – Verdugo/Yoshida/Casas/Turner
GPP note – Javier continues to struggle, so going after him against here is fair play. Hand matchup does not seem to matter, as he’s allowing good contact and power to both sides of the plate.
Astros 4 star plays – Altuve/Bregman/Alvarez/Tucker
Astros 3.5 star plays – McCormick/Maldonado
GPP note – Paxton can hold his own, so if you do stack heavy here, consider hedging in some other lineups.
Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox
The Mariners and White Sox will face off next, with Castillo and Toussaint on the mound. An 8.5 total, Seattle gets the nod from Vegas here, and for the most part I can’t really disagree. However, I could see Toussaint having a decent outing here which could keep the game close as well as hitting the under.
Mariners 4.5 star plays – Rodriguez
Mariners 4 star plays – Crawford/Raleigh/Suarez
GPP note – Toussaint allows good power to both sides but does also carry some of the best strikeout upside on the slate, making him a solid mid-range hedging option today.
White Sox 4 star plays – Robert
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Andrus, Benintendi
GPP note – Perhaps the worst spot on the slate, but you could always go contrarian.
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Late games
Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Angels
We’ll switch over to the late games next (already?), starting with the Reds and Angels. Ashcraft and Giolito get the start here, along with a modest 9.0 total. This game looks pretty straight forward at first glance, though I think that we’ll get more out of this game than just some big hits from Ohtani and De La Cruz.
Reds 4.5 star plays – De La Cruz
Reds 4 star plays – Votto/Friedl/McLain
GPP note – Giolito is allowing good power to both sides but carries decent strikeout upside, so if you aren’t hedging anywhere else, you could do so here.
Angels 5 star plays – Ohtani
Angels 4 star plays – Moustakas/Moniak
GPP note – A decent spot against Ashcraft, he tends to allow homers in spurts, so don’t feel like your only option is to one-off Ohtani.
Kansas City Royals at Oakland Athletics
Next up we have Davidson and my Royals set to take on Blackburn and the Athletics. An 8.5 total, this one is a bit more interesting than what that total would indicate – or at least I think that it is. Between Oakland’s 4.5 run total on a budget and Blackburn’s inexpensive upside, I think that there’s a good chance that they’ll have some important pieces of the puzzle tonight. Hopefully KC can fight back, but there may only be a handful of bats worth investing in.
Royals 4 star plays – Witt/Perez
Royals 3.5 star plays – Melendez/Garcia
GPP note – Blackburn can pitch above his DK salary, making him an interesting target to take on this goofy slate. As for these bats, he’s only allowing some power to lefties, so it’s tough to give KC much love.
Athletics 4 star plays – Rooker/Gelof
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Ruiz
GPP note – Who knows what we’ll get here, but Vegas seems to like these budget bats, so why not give them a whirl?
Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks
Montgomery and the Rangers will take on Cecconi and the Diamondbacks next, as we move up to a 9.5 total. Vegas likes Texas here, which is understandable as they seem to have the advantage on all fronts. There are least enough big bats to warrant going contrarian or hedging with Arizona, as they do have a tough matchup against Montgomery, but may come in with less ownership than usual.
Rangers 5 star plays – Seager
Rangers 4 star plays – Lowe, Semien/Garcia, Garver
GPP note – Good spot against Cecconi who has so far shown to give up good power to lefties, decent contact to both sides, and not carry a ton of strikeout prowess.
Diamondbacks 4.5 star plays – Carroll
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Walker/Pham/Marte/Gurriel
GPP note – Montgomery tends to allow about one home run per start but has been finding more and more strikeout upside, making this another spot to consider hedging.
Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres
We’ll wrap things up with the Marlins and Padres, with Weathers and Wacha on the mound. One last 8.5 total greets us here, with the home team being the heavy favorites. Again, that seems quite fair considering the overall matchup, though hedging doesn’t seem quite as appealing here. We’ll see how it goes, but it doesn’t seem that Wacha has missed a beat in his return.
Marlins 4 star plays – Chisholm/Arraez/Soler
Marlins 3.5 star plays – Bell/Burger
GPP note – Wacha has had a solid season and looked just fine in his return, making this a bit of a tough spot for these bats.
Padres 5 star plays – Tatis
Padres 4 star plays – Machado/Soto, Bogaerts
GPP note – Good matchup against Weathers and co, so you can stack any way you’d like to here.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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Aug 13, 2023; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Oakland Athletics second baseman Zack Gelof (20) celebrates with Athletics designated hitter Brent Rooker (25) after hitting a home run against the Washington Nationals during the first inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
