Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We head into another big day of baseball on this Friday, as we are met with a handful of early games followed by a 12-game main slate. Do be aware that while players from the second Detroit/Cleveland game are present on DraftKings, they won’t accrue any fantasy points tonight. I suppose that DK couldn’t be bothered to remove them from the player pool and make a new CVS file, so be sure you aren’t including them in your player pool. At any rate, let’s dig in to see which players will (hopefully) earn some fantasy points for us!
A look at pitchers
We get a decent range of options today, and seeing as Strider will be in action, he’ll be the first one to point out with his elite upside. Lopez is another option to pay up for as he shares some of that strikeout upside with his 500+ KSCORE as well as a slate-best 2.90 SIERA over his last handful of starts. At the bottom end we have a couple of gas cans pitching at Coors, so you may want to look at some other budget arms instead. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early games
Kansas City Royals at Chicago Cubs
We’ll kick things off in the Windy City, as Ragans and my Royals will take on Taillon and the Cubs. We get a modest 8.5 total for this one, which seems fair as bboth starters can hold their own. We’ll see if one of them falters early and opens the door for the other team to try and push the total over.
Royals 4 star plays – Witt/Perez
Royals 3.5 star plays – Melendez
GPP note – Tough spot against Taillon, but he does allow some xwOBA to lefties and some of these bats are hitting righties for some pop.
Cubs 4 star plays – Hoerner/Happ, Bellinger/Swanson
Cubs 3.5 star plays – Suzuki/Wisdom
GPP note – Good Vegas support, though Ragans does a decent job of mitigating power and does carry some strikeout upside.
Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians
Next up we have the first game of today’s double-header between the Tigers and Guadians. Skubal and Williams will get the start for this one, along with an 8.0 total. There’s not a ton to go over here, but do keep in mind the note earlier regarding the second game today.
Tigers 4 star plays – Greene
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Carpenter
GPP note – Tough spot against Williams, though he is allowing some decent contact and power to lefties on occasion.
Guardians 4 star plays – Ramirez, Gimenez
Guardians 3.5 star plays – Laureano
GPP note – Not a great spot here either, as Skubal can hold his own and carries decent strikeout upside.
Toronto Blue Jays at Cincinnati Reds
We’ll round out the early games with the Blue Jays and Reds, with Berrios and Kennedy on the mound. A healthy 10.5 total has been given as a starting point for this one, and while that’s certainly fair considering the big bats at this ballpark, I could see a scenario where the starters can manage the game efficiently and cause this one to see the under. Perhaps some hedging is in order?
Blue Jays 4.5 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Merrifield/Belt/Chapman, Varsho
GPP note – Kennedy allows moderate power to both sides of the plate, so don’t worry too much about hand matchup here.
Reds 4.5 star plays – De La Cruz
Reds 4 star plays – Votto, McLain/Friedl
GPP note – Berrios is another one that tends to mitigate damage, so be careful blindly stacking here.
Main slate
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
We’ll switch over to the main slate now, starting with a good ol’ rivalry game between the Red Sox and Yankees. Bello and Brito will get the start here, which mostly gives Boston the upper hand. We’ll see if they can take advantage of that or if New York is able to flip the script.
Red Sox 5 star plays – Devers
Red Sox 4 star plays – Yoshida/Casas, Verdugo, Turner/Story
GPP note – Brito is no stranger to allowing big power in big spurts to either side of the plate, so stacks of any size are in play here.
Yankees 4.5 star plays – Judge
Yankees 4 star plays – Torres/Stanton, McKinney
GPP note – Bello allows plenty of power to lefties, but does also allow moderate power to righties, so you can look at more than just Judge from that side of the plate.
Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals
Next up we have the Phillies and Nationals, with Lorenzen and Adon on the mound. A 9.0 total, Philly is the heavy favorite here, which shouldn’t be a big surprise seeing as they are in a much better spot than the Nats are. You could always go contrarian, but I think that there are better spots to try your luck with that approach.
Phillies 5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 4 star plays – Schwarber, Castellanos/Stott
GPP note – Adon allows decent power to both sides but also carries some strikeout upside, so if you go here, consider budging with him as a budget SP2.
Nationals 4 star plays – Abrams/Thomas
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Meneses, Smith
GPP note – Tough matchup against Lorenzen, so contrarian stacks only.
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San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves
Cobb and the Giants will take on Strider and the Braves next, as we move down to an 8.5 total. The home team is the heavy favorite here, and well, I don’t think that I really need to elaborate on this one. Moving on!
Giants 4 star plays – Pederson/Flores
Giants 3.5 star plays – Conforto/Wade
GPP note – Contrarian stacks or fade, take your pick.
Braves 5 star plays – Acuna/Olson
Braves 4 star plays – Albies/Riley/Ozuna, Murphy
GPP note – Good spot against Cobb who allows good contact and power to both sides with a below-average strikeout rate, so you can stack harder here than what their implied total might recommend doing.
Milwaukee Brewers at Texas Rangers
Next up we’ll have Woodruff and the Brewers taking on Heaney and the Rangers, along with an 8.0 total. Vegas has this game set to be much closer than the previous ones, but I think it’s going to come down to how Woodruff looks. He’s allowing more home runs than he normally does since his return, so some small hedging might not be a terrible idea.
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 3.5 star plays – Contreras/Santana, Adames
GPP note – Heaney has some reverse splits working against him as he’s allowing more contact and power to lefties, so consider running out some of them.
Rangers 4.5 star plays – Seager/Semien
Rangers 4 star plays – Lowe
GPP note – Woodruff can be a tough one to attack, but he has allowed three homers in the first two starts of his return.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Minnesota Twins
Jackson and the Pirates will take on Lopez and the Twins next, as we move up slightly to another 8.5 total. Another game with a heavy favorite, it’s once again the home team here. Like the last one, I don’t think this one needs much explaining, either.
Pirates 4 star plays – Reynolds
Pirates 3.5 star plays – McCutchen, Suwinski/Hayes
GPP note – Bad spot for these guys, so it’s either go contrarian or go somewhere else.
Twins 4.5 star plays – Polanco/Correa
Twins 4 star plays – Julien/Kepler
GPP note – Jackson can hold his own, so he could hold this offense down for the 2-3 innings that he’s in the game for.
Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros
We’ll head back down south for our next matchup, as Miller and the Mariners will take on France and the Astros with another 8.5 total. Houston is favored here, though not as heavily as some other teams are. I think that Seattle makes for one of the better contrarian moves on the day, at least as far as the 3.xx implied total offenses go.
Mariners 4 star plays – Rodriguez
Mariners 3.5 star plays – Suarez, Hernandez/France/Raleigh
GPP note – France hasn’t allowed much power at all as of late, but he is allowing decent xwOBA to both sides of the plate. It wouldn’t be a terrible idea to run a few stacks here in case that xwOBA translates into some ISO.
Astros 4.5 star plays – Alvarez/Tucker
Astros 4 star plays – Altuve/Bregman
GPP note – Miller allows power to both sides and extra wOBA to lefties, but does carry reasonable strikeout upside. You’ll surely run some Houston stacks, so consider having some Miller exposure in lineups that exclude them.
New York Mets at St Louis Cardinals
Lucchesi makes his return as he and the Mets will take on Thompson and the Cardinals. There’s no Vegas insight as of yet, but seeing as it’s a pitcher in his return, I would be interested in attacking and/or hedging with him, regardless of what they say (especially against the Cardinals who can be very boom-or-bust).
Mets 4.5 star plays – Lindor/Alonso
Mets 4 star plays – Alvarez/Nimmo
GPP note – Thompson hasn’t allowed a ton of power and has shown some strikeout upside this summer, so be careful blindly stacking here as many others will do based solely on his salary.
Cardinals 4.5 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado
Cardinals 4 star plays – O’Neill/Contreras/Edman
GPP note – Lucchesi looked pretty rough prior to his absence, so attacking him wouldn’t be a bad idea in case he’s still a bit off.
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Chicago White Sox at Colorado Rockies
It’s Coors time, and tonight’s lucky chalk bombers are the White Sox and Rockies. Kopech and Lambert will get the start, and we’ll see which one gets the early exit first. Vegas is giving this one a 12.0 total that is split right down the middle, so pick your (chalky) poison.
White Sox 5 star plays – Robert
White Sox 4 star plays – Benintendi, Jimenez/Andrus/Moncada
GPP note – It’s Coors, so you’ll have to decide if you want to invest in the chalk or fade it.
Rockies 5 star plays – McMahon
Rockies 4 star plays – Blackmon/Profar, Diaz/Tovar
GPP note – More Coors chalk!
Late games
Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels
We’ll head out west for our late night games, starting with the Rays and Angels. Ramirez and Anderson will get the start here, along with a healthy 9.5 total. Vegas has the total split down the middle with a slight nod on the moneyline going to the home team. I see the game getting close to that total but staying slightly below it, with a fewer number of bats having a bigger game as opposed to larger stacks going bananas. We’ll see how it goes, but that’s where I’m planting my flag.
Rays 4.5 star plays – Arozarena
Rays 4 star plays – Diaz, Ramirez
GPP note – Anderson does a good job of not allowing much power, but he does allow some xwOBA to righties and wOBA to lefties.
Angels 5 star plays – Ohtani
Angels 4 star plays – Moniak/Moustakas
GPP note – Ramirez is anything but daunting, though he does manage to skate through a few innings without getting blown up, so keep your expectations in check a little here (aside from Ohtani, you can go nuts with him as usual).
Baltimore Orioles at Oakland Athletics
Next up we get the Orioles and Athletics, with Gibson and Medina on the mound. An 8.5 total, the visitors are favored here, and Gibson gets the best salary-to-implied total ratio on the board. That should make him a popular option, so we’ll see if he can come through tonight.
Orioles 4.5 star plays – Rutschman
Orioles 4 star plays – Santander/Henderson, Mullins/Mountcastle
GPP note – Lefties have the statcast advantage against Medina, so traditional stacks might be best.
Athletics 4 star plays – Brown
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Rooker/Gelof
GPP note – They’re not a great stacking target, but they are cheap!
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
Pfaadt and the Diamondbacks will take on Lugo and Padres next, along with another modest 8.5 total. Vegas is giving the nod to the home team here, which is understandable, but I feel like they’re selling Arizona a little short here. I’m going to go ahead and plant another flag here and say that Arizona will hit their over.
Diamondbacks 4.5 star plays – Carroll
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Marte, Gurriel/Walker
GPP note – No real Vegas support to be found here, but Lugo does allow power to both sides and some extra xwOBA to lefties.
Padres 5 star plays – Soto
Padres 4 star plays – Tatis/Machado, Bogaerts/Cronenworth
GPP note – Pfaadt tends to allow power to both sides of the plate, so you can mostly just ignore hand matchup against him.
Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers
And finally, we’ll wrap up the day with the Marlins and Dodgers, as Alcantara and Gonsolin will square off. Yet another 8.5 total, I see this one going under just like last night’s game for LA did, which my gut correctly called. We’ll see if the flag can live up to the gut, or if these quality starters will ruin that for me.
Marlins 4 star plays – Chisholm, Soler/Arraez
Marlins 3.5 star plays – Bell/Burger
GPP note – While not the best target on the slate to attack, Gonsolin is allowing good contact and power to both sides, so you can go against the grain with some confidence.
Dodgers 4.5 star plays – Freeman/Betts
Dodgers 4 star plays – Muncy/Smith/Martinez
GPP note – Alcantara offers his typical upside but does allow power to both sides. If you enjoy expensive hedge targets, this is your spot.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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Aug 14, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves mascot Blooper and left fielder Eddie Rosario (8) and center fielder Michael Harris II (23) and right fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. (13) celebrate after a victory against the New York Yankees at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
