Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. It’s our Thursday intermission day, and we’re given but just six games to work with today. Two of them are early day stragglers, followed by a four-game main slate. There may not be many games to choose from, but there are at least still some places to dig around with, so let’s get right to it!
A look at pitchers
There aren’t too many options to choose from, though Kirby looks to be a good choice for the early games (or on the all-day slate, if you’re into that sort of things). Sale is an option too, as he offers plenty of upside as always, though he’s only had one start since June. For the main slate we have a few studs to spend some salary on, though they are facing competent offenses. They should be plenty useful for tournaments but seeing as there’s not a slam-dunk cash game option (Lynn would probably be the closest we have to that), it may be best to wait until tomorrow for that. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early games
Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals
We’ll kick things off with the early games, starting with the Mariners and Royals. Kirby and Zerpa get the start, along with a 9.0 total. This one looks pretty straight forward, and while I do expect Seattle to take the W against my guys here, I do think that there will be a useful piece or two from the home team.
Mariners 5 star plays – Rodriguez
Mariners 4 star plays – Raleigh/France/Hernandez
GPP note – Zerpa allows good contact and power to righties and carries a low strikeout rate, making this a solid spot for these bats to have a big day.
Royals 4 star plays – Witt/Perez
Royals 3.5 star plays – Melendez/Garcia
GPP note – Not a great spot against Kirby, but he does allow some decent contact and power to lefties, so there’s some room for contrarian moves here.
Boston Red Sox at Washington Nationals
Next up we’ll have the Red Sox and Nationals, as Sale and Corbin will face off. This could be a good spot for a vintage 10+ strikeout Sale start, so keep your fingers crossed. Well, for me anyway, because I just love watching this guy pitch!
Red Sox 4.5 star plays – Turner/Story
Red Sox 4 star plays – Devers
GPP note – Great spot against Corbin who is allowing all sorts of contact and power to both sides of the plate, so stack away however you see fit (consider wrap-around stacks to help with ownership).
Nationals 4 star plays – Abrams/Thomas
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Ruiz/Vargas
GPP note – You could always go contrarian, but KC might be the better alternative on this small slate.
Watching the weather is half the battle when it comes to MLB DFS. The DFS Army Weather Station has you covered, from games that have delay and postponement potential to games that could have significant winds that will play a role in selecting a team to stack or a pitcher to use.
Main slate
New York Mets at St Louis Cardinals
Switching over to the main slate, we’ll start with the Mets and Cardinals. Quintana and Wainwright will get the start here, along with a spicy 10.5 total. Vegas has this one split mostly down the middle, though I have this aching feeling that this is one of those trap spots where the Cardinals will drop a big dud with a 5.0+ implied total. Time will tell if that feeling will be warranted or not.
Mets 5 star plays – Lindor/Alonso
Mets 4 star plays – Nimmo/McNeil/Vogelbach
GPP note – Same idea as with the Red Sox, so be sure to run some funky secondary stacks or find other ways to help with ownership.
Cardinals 4.5 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado
Cardinals 4 star plays – Contreras/O’Neill/Edman
GPP note – Quintana isn’t allowing much power at all but he is allowing good xwOBA to righties, so hedging lineups with bats between different contests or sites might not be a bad idea.
Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians
Next up we have the Tigers and Guardians, with Skubal and Curry on the mound. Chances are, we’ll see this game play out tomorrow, as the weather forecast looks terrible. Do at least keep an eye on things, because there’s always a chance that everybody fades this game but we get a late green flag due to mother nature wanting to see this one play out today.
Tigers 4.5 star plays – Greene
Tigers 4 star plays – Carpenter/Torkelson/Baddoo
GPP note – Curry allows equally good power and xwOBA to both sides of the plate, so if they play, any sort of stacks would be in play here.
Guardians 4 star plays – Ramirez
Guardians 3.5 star plays – Laureano
GPP note – Skubal has been quite strict and offers some legitimate strikeout upside, so if they play, you may want to fade or stick to smaller stacks.
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
We’ll head out west for the final two games, starting with the Diamondbacks and Padres. Gallen and Hill will get the start, and Vegas has them down for an 8.5 total that is split right down the middle. My gut tells me that Gallen will prevail and the D’backs will sneak out a win, so we’ll see if it can go two for two with these calls.
Diamondbacks 4.5 star plays – Carroll
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Walker/Marte, Ahmed
GPP note – Hill allows good wOBA to both sides but righties are translating that into power much better than lefties have been.
Padres 4 star plays – Soto, Tatis/Machado
Padres 3.5 star plays – Bogaerts/Cronenworth
GPP note – Tough spot against Gallen, but there are some big bats here to oppose him, making this a solid spot for some hedge action.
Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers
We’ll wrap things up with the Brewers and Dodgers, with Burnes and Lynn on the mound. We drop down to an 8.0 total for this one, with the home team getting the nod. That’s probably fair, though I would not be surprised to not only see this one go the under, but for the total to drop a little bit too throughout the day.
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 3.5 star plays – Santana/Contreras, Adames, Taylor
GPP note – Tough spot here against Lynn, though some of these bats are hitting righties for some power, so contrarian moves are a viable option.
Dodgers 4.5 star plays – Freeman/Betts
Dodgers 4 star plays – Muncy, Smith, Outman
GPP note – Another tough spot for some big bats, so you can hedge here if you haven’t yet already.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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A batter stands in as Boston Red Sox ace Chris Sale delivers during a simulated inning Thursday at Polar Park.
