Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We’re back to the workweek grind on this Monday, and we’re met with a solo showdown game followed by an eight-game main slate. It’s a good start to the week, as we have everything from studs to duds to gas cans pitching at Coors. It should be a fun one, so let’s dig in!
A look at pitchers
There’s no shortage of options today, as there are plenty of interesting ways to go. Spending up is one option, as we have Scherzer and Glasnow in action. Darvish’s salary remains a little low on DK, so he offers similar upside at a slight discount. As we drop in salary, we have some pitchers with random upside such as Singer, who is always worth at least a sprinkle or two in the event that he throws another 8+ strikeout gem. The lower end is quite scary, as we’re met with the likes of Priester, Carrasco, and Flexen, all who can get shelled to the moon and back. It may be worth paying up today, but if you’re feeling bold, you’ll have them mostly to yourself. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
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Early game
Houston Astros at Miami Marlins
We’ll kick things off with our lone early game, a showdown between the Astros and Marlins. Valdez and Garrett will get the start here, along with a 7.5 total. Vegas likes the visitors here, though I suspect that it’ll be a fairly close one. If you haven’t dabbled in showdowns a lot, this would be a good one to get your feet wet with, as there are plenty of ways to go on both sides.
Astros 4.5 star plays – Altuve/Bregman
Astros 4 star plays – Alvarez/Tucker
GPP note – Garrett is allowing decent xwOBA to both sides of the plate, but righties are getting more power out of him.
Marlins 4 star plays – Arraez/Soler
Marlins 3.5 star plays – Burger/De La Cruz/Bell
GPP note – Not a great matchup against Valdez, but righties are getting decent contact and power out of him.
Main slate
Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets
We’ll switch over to the main slate now, starting with the Pirates and Mets. Priester and Carrasco get the start, and while we don’t yet have any insight from Vegas, I’m going to assume that this game will carry a healthy total, considering who we have for starters and all. As long as the rain holds out, there could be some nice back-and-forth action here.
Pirates 4.5 star plays – Reynolds
Pirates 4 star plays – McCutchen, Suwinski
GPP note – Carrasco continues to be a good target to attack, as he’s allowing good contact and power to both sides with a below-average strikeout rate.
Mets 4.5 star plays – Lindor/Alonso
Mets 4 star plays – Alvarez, Nimmo/McNeil
GPP note – Same as above, but an even better target to attack (on paper, at least).
New York Yankees at Atlanta Braves
Next up we have the Yankees and Braves, with Schmidt and Fried on the mound. A 9.0 total, Vegas likes the home team here, and it’s hard to argue against that with how well-rounded that offense is. I think the bigger question will be if Fried can keep pace on his end and keep the Yankees power upside in check, or if they will get some big hits out of him.
Yankees 4.5 star plays – Judge
Yankees 4 star plays – Stanton/Torres, Volpe/Higashioka
GPP note – Fried has looked decent in his return, but there are several bats here hitting lefties for some power, so either side (or hedging) would be in play here.
Braves 4.5 star plays – Acuna/Olson
Braves 4 star plays – Albies/Riley, Ozuna/Harris
GPP note – Schmidt is allowing good power to both sides of the plate, putting just about everyone in this lineup in play…as usual.
Oakland Athletics at St Louis Cardinals
Sears and the Athletics will take on Mikolas and the Cardinals next, along with another 9.0 total. As far as Vegas is concerned, the Cardinals are on par with the Braves today, so it’ll be interesting to see if they can come through with that or if they’ll blow it like they sometimes like to do when they’re in a good spot.
Athletics 4 star plays – Rooker/Brown
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Gelof
GPP note – Mikolas has been pretty stingy to both sides, so going with big budget contrarian stacks may not be the way to go, though some smaller stacks could work.
Cardinals 4.5 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado
Cardinals 4 star plays – Nootbaar/Gorman/Contreras
GPP note – Lefties have the statcast advantage against Sears, so if you go here, be sure to give some of them a shot too.
Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers
Moving right along, our next matchup will be between the Angels and Rangers, with Sandoval and Scherzer on the hill. Yet another 9.0 total, the home team is once again favored here, and they carry a total nearly as high as the previously two favored teams. My only complaint about this game is that Ohtani isn’t pitching, because that would be a matchup that I would love to see.
Angels 4.5 star plays – Ohtani
Angels 3.5 star plays – Moustakas/Moniak, Cron
GPP note – It’s Scherzer, so hedging is always in play as both sides offer plenty of upside when he’s pitching.
Rangers 4.5 star plays – Seager/Semien
Rangers 4 star plays – Garcia, Grossman/Heim
GPP note – Sandoval has been a bit strict overall, but does allow some power to lefties.
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Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals
Next up we’ll have Gilbert and the Mariners set to take on Singer and my Royals as we move down to an 8.5 total. Seattle gets the slight nod here, though it does look like they expect it to be a fairly close game. If nothing else, some of these budget bats could make for interesting pivots to the cheaper bats in the next game.
Mariners 4.5 star plays – Rodriguez
Mariners 4 star plays – Raleigh, Suarez/Hernandez
GPP note – Good Vegas support, but Singer is notorious for throwing the random gem on a budget, so hedging isn’t a terrible idea. Otherwise, righties have the statcast against him in his most recent starts.
Royals 4 star plays – Witt/Perez
Royals 3.5 star plays – Melendez/Garcia
GPP note – Not the best spot on the slate, though Gilbert does allow some power here and there, so small or medium-sized stacks could work.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
We get our Coors game next, as the Diamondbacks will take on the Rockies in mile high Denver. Kelly and Flexen will get the start here, and we open with a 12.0 total. A whopping 7.5 of that goes to the visitors, so you can expect them to be mega-chalk. If (when) you go with them, you’ll have to find ways to get creative with your secondary stacks, so be sure to have your thinking caps on today.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – Carroll
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Marte/Walker, Gurriel, et al.
GPP note – Bombs away!
Rockies 4.5 star plays – McMahon
Rockies 4 star plays – Tovar/Diaz
GPP note – Lefties have the power advantage against Kelly while righties are getting some decent xwOBA out of him, so you can run some stacks here, too.
Baltimore Orioles at San Diego Padres
We’ll head out west for our final two games, starting with the Orioles and Padres. Rodriguez and Darvish get the start here, as we move back down to an 8.0 total. Like the Seattle/KC game, Vegas has this one fairly tight, with the home team getting just a modest nod of approval from them. I think that’s all going to come down to how Darvish looks, so we’ll see if he’s up for the task or if he has a repeat of the Pittsburgh game.
Orioles 4.5 star plays – Henderson
Orioles 4 star plays – Santander/Rutschman, Mountcastle/Mullins
GPP note – It’s Darvish, so like Scherzer, some hedging here isn’t a terrible idea, as Darvish does allow some power to lefties while also carrying 10+ strikeout upside on any given night.
Padres 4.5 star plays – Soto
Padres 4 star plays – Tatis/Machado/Bogaerts
GPP note – Rodriguez hasn’t allowed a homer to the last 116+ batters he’s faced, so be careful stacking heavy against him just because he’s inexpensive.
Tampa Bay Rays at San Francisco Giants
We’ll wrap things up with the Rays and Giants, with Glasnow and Walker on the mound. We end the day just as we started it, with another 7.5 total. I do find it a bit interesting that the Rays aren’t favored more heavily here, as they seem to have a much better matchup all around. I’m not sure if this will be a case of “Vegas was wrong” or “baseball sure is funny” but I’ll be watching this one closely either way!
Rays 4.5 star plays – Arozarena
Rays 4 star plays – B Lowe/Diaz/J Lowe
GPP note – Righties tend to get a little more power rout of Walker than lefties do, so don’t neglect them.
Giants 4 star plays – Estrada/Flores/Pederson
Giants 3.5 star plays – Wade/Conforto/Davis
GPP note – Tough spot against Glasnow, so contrarian stacks only.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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Aug 9, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Atlanta Braves right fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. (13) hits an RBI double against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the fourth inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
