Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. It’s our transition day, and we are met with a couple of small 4-game slates on this Thursday. The slates may be small, but we’ve still got things like multiple games with weather concerns, 5-6+ run totals, and studs & gas cans for our pitching options. Small slates or not, there’s still plenty to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
As mentioned above, we have some studs to look at today, such as Nola and Kershaw in his return. On the flip side, we have some others that have been struggling plenty, and they make good targets to attack (looking at you, Corbin and Syndergaard). There are several games with weather concerns, so if you’re wanting some shares of Brown, Paxton, or even Elder, be sure you’re able to keep tabs on news surrounding those games. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early games
Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles
We’ll kick things off with the early games, starting with the Astros and Orioles. Brown and Kremer will get the start, along with a 9.0 total. Right off the bat we find ourselves with some concerning weather looming, so keep an eye on things as we approach lock, as there’s a good chance that this one will at least be delayed.
Astros 4.5 star plays – Alvarez
Astros 4 star plays – Altuve/Bregman/Tucker
GPP note – Solid spot for the lefties, though Kremer has been pretty strict to righties, which could limit RvR upside.
Orioles 4.5 star plays – Rutschman
Orioles 4 star plays – Santander/Henderson, Mountcastle
GPP note – Brown can hold his own, but he is allowing good contact and power to both sides of the plate, giving these bats a chance at some upside.
Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates
Next up we have the Braves and Pirates, with Elder and Falter on the mound. We move up to a 9.5 total for this game, and while we still have some weather concerns, they aren’t nearly as threatening as the previous game. Do keep an eye on things just the same, as there will be some popular players from this one.
Braves 5 star plays – Acuna
Braves 4 star plays – Riley/Albies/Olson, Ozuna
GPP note – Falter tends to allow equal damage to both sides of the plate, so hand matchup likely won’t matter too much here.
Pirates 4 star plays – Reynolds, Suwinski
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Davis
GPP note – Not much love from Vegas, but Elder does allow decent contact and power to both sides, so some contrarian stacks are viable here.
Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardians
Manoah and the Blue Jays will take on Syndergaard and the Guardians next, as we move back down to another 9.0 total. Both pitchers have had their ups and downs (mostly downs for Syndergaard), so I could see this cruising to the over without too much trouble.
Blue Jays 4.5 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Merrifield/Chapman, Belt/Varsho
GPP note – Syndergaard continues to struggle, so attacking him here isn’t a bad idea at all.
Guardians 4.5 star plays – Ramirez
Guardians 4 star plays – Kwan, Gimenez
GPP note – Lefties have a good matchup against Manoah, but he has been quite strict to righties.
Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers
We’ll round out the early games with the Twins and Tigers, with Maeda and Olson on the hill. We drop down once again, this time to an 8.5 total. My gut tells me that we’ll see the under here, even if Minnesota is able to do some damage against Olson. Detroit can certainly snag an upset, but Maeda looks to be in pretty good form, so I don’t see that happening this time.
Twins 4.5 star plays – Correa
Twins 4 star plays – Julien/Kepler/Polanco, Gallo
GPP note – Olson allows good power to both sides of the plate and carries a below-average strikeout rate, so stacks of any size are worth looking at here.
Tigers 4 star plays – Greene
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Carpenter/Torkelson, Rogers
GPP note – Tough spot against Maeda, but he does allow some power to righties.
Watching the weather is half the battle when it comes to MLB DFS. The DFS Army Weather Station has you covered, from games that have delay and postponement potential to games that could have significant winds that will play a role in selecting a team to stack or a pitcher to use.
Main slate
Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies
We’ll switch over to the main slate now, starting with the Nationals and Phillies. Corbin and Nola will get the start for this one, along with a 9.0 total. Minor weather concerns aside, this game looks pretty straight forward, though going contrarian isn’t off the table considering Nola has allowed plenty of homers this season.
Nationals 4 star plays – Abrams
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Thomas, Meneses
GPP note – Not a great spot against Nola, though he is no stranger to allowing some power (to both sides) on occasion.
Phillies 4.5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 4 star plays – Bohm/Castellanos, Schwarber
GPP note – Corbin allows lots of xwOBA to both sides and some extra power to righties, so you can attack him as usual.
St Louis Cardinals at Tampa Bay Rays
Next up we have the Cardinals and Rays, with Liberatore and Littell on the mound. Another 9.0 total, Vegas has the home team as the favorite here. While I can’t really disagree, I do feel like that sub-4.0 St Louis total is a little low, so we’ll see if it moves up much throughout the day.
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado
Cardinals 3.5 star plays – Gorman/Nootbaar, Conteras
GPP note – Not much Vegas support to go around here, though there is some upside against Littell and co here with potentially reduced ownership.
Rays 5 star plays – Arozarena/Franco
Rays 4 star plays – Diaz, Paredes
GPP note – Liberatore likely won’t have much to slow these bats down, so you can stack with confidence.
Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox
Marsh and my Royals will take on Paxton and the Red Sox next, as we move up to a healthy 10.5 total. Most of that is going to the home team, but seeing how the weather looks, we may not get to see this one play out today. Keep an eye on the skies to get an idea either way, because this Boston offense will be quite chalky with that 6.5+ total.
Royals 4 star plays – Witt/Perez
Royals 3.5 star plays – Garcia
GPP note – Paxton allows good power to righties on occasion, so small or medium-sized stacks can be utilized here.
Red Sox 5 star plays – Devers
Red Sox 4 star plays – Yoshida/Duran, Casas/Story/Verdugo
GPP note – Marsh has random strikeout upside but also allows good contact and power to both sides, so he could be a budget SP2 hedge target (or you can just stack away with this huge total).
Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers
We’ll wrap things up with the Rockies and Dodgers, as Blach and Kershaw will face off with a modest 8.5 total. Once again, the home team is favored, though this time by much more than the previous games. Colorado is only slated for around 2.5 runs, so if you really want to go contrarian, there’s your target.
Rockies 4 star plays – Tovar/Profar
Rockies 3.5 star plays – McMahon
GPP note – Kershaw isn’t normally a great target to attack, but you could test your luck here since it’ll be his first game back in over a month.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Betts, Freeman
Dodgers 4 star plays – Smith/Rosario/Muncy
GPP note – Great spot for this lineup, as Blach allows good contact to both sides and carries low strikeout upside.
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And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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Aug 2, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw (22) hits grounders as he plays with his 6 year old son Charley prior to the game against the Oakland Athletics at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
