Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 8/9:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Max Fried
- Kevin Gausman
- Shohei Ohtani
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Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers (-235)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Chris Flexen
Brewers – Adrian Houser
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. The Brewers feel like the best play on this early slate from a price point standpoint. Flexen has been horrendous this season but it also makes me wonder if he might wake up a little bit at tis point? Houser has been solid and faces such a weak offense. He’s going to be my highest owned SP on the early slate of games.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nolan Jones
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against RHPs.
MIL 5-star plays: Brice Turang
4-star plays: Sal Frelick, William Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against RHPs.
Houston Astros @ Baltimore Orioles (-135)
Pitchers:
Astros – Cristian Javier
Orioles – Jack Flaherty
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Tough to not be all about the Orioles with the way they’ve performed plus the way that Javier has thrown it this season, especially on the road. Flaherty looked great in his BAL debut but can he do it against this HOU squad? I’m not sure but I really love the LHBs in this game tonight.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs.
BAL 5-star plays: Gunnar Henderson
4-star plays: Anthony Santander
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs.
Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds (-130)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Johnny Cueto
Reds – Graham Ashcraft
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. The most likely game to shoot out on the early slate but there are some questions. Cueto has looked strong for MIA while Ashcraft has turned his season around a bit. The Marlins offense isn’t overly dangerous while the Reds have been sliding a lot this second half. Which offense wakes up in this one?
MIA 5-star plays: Jazz Chisholm
4-star plays: Bryan De La Cruz, Jorge Soler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 against RHPs.
CIN 5-star plays: TJ Friedl
4-star plays: Joey Votto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs.
Atlanta Braves (-285) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Braves – Max Fried
Pirates – Quinn Priester
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total 0f 9.5. Fried looked like he hadn’t missed a second of the season, even though he was coming off of a 3 month IL stint. The big question is whether he can follow up his hyped return with a strong performance against the shitty Pirates. Priester hasn’t looked good at the MLB level and he’s been smashed by LHBs so far. I wonder if Acuna will get the night off after getting hit last night?
ATL 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: Team ISO of .224 against RHPs.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 against LHPs.
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Toronto Blue Jays (-170) @ Cleveland Guardians
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Kevin Gausman
Guardians – Logan Allen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. It’s time for a Gausman game and I plan to be very overweight tonight. The CLE lineup isn’t the same as the one that was rarely striking out early in the season and they have even less pop in the lineup right now. Allen has been decent but the TOR lineup has had some success against LHPs over the last couple of weeks, driving their team ISO up quite a bit (they were last in baseball just a couple of weeks ago).
TOR 5-star plays: George Springer
4-star plays: Davis Schneider, Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against LHPs.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kole Calhoun, Andres Gimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 against RHPs.
Minnesota Twins (-160) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Twins – Bailey Ober
Tigers – Alex Faedo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I really like Kerry Carpenter as a one-off play as he’s been destroying the baseball. The Twins have started to heat up even with all the injury issues they’ve been dealing with. They are a team that can go cold instantly so it’s hard to continue to stack them. I will be on them as far as mini-stacks go for sure and maybe I will sprinkle some main stacks throughout my runs tonight.
MIN 5-star plays: Max Kepler
4-star plays: Ryan Jeffers, Matt Wallner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 against RHPs.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kerry Carpenter
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 against RHPs.
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (-190)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Mackenzie Gore
Phillies – Michael Lorenzen
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 9. It just feels like the Phillies are on the verge of exploding offensively. Like I could see them going on a 10 game run where they have 6-7 runs per game. Gore is one of my favorite young SPs in baseball but he hasn’t had success against this PHI lineup. Lorenzen has looked great this season and I think he’s going to be the reason PHI makes the postseason (as in the trade is going to be a sneaky good one for them).
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: CJ Abrams, Lane Thomas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 against RHPs.
PHI 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Trea Turner, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .176 against LHPs.
Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox (-225)
Pitchers:
Royals – Jordan Lyles
Red Sox – Nick Pivetta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10.5. I wanted so badly to believe that Pivetta was going to dominate in this one and then I saw that he last threw on the 5th which means he’s likely not going to get us 6+ innings. Such a strong total for a game with some wind blowing in from LF. The Royals have been hot while the Red Sox lineup has cooled down. What’s going to give here? Lyles is far worse than Pivetta.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: MJ Melendez, Bobby Witt Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against RHPs.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs.
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Texas Rangers (-285) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Rangers – Jordan Montgomery
Athletics – Austin Pruitt
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Montgomery is a larger favorite than Scherzer was last night. Let that one sick in (probably has to do with the OAK SP more than the TEX SP but still). Seager is making people believe that he has a shot at MVP over Ohtani (he doesn’t but it’s nice to see). Montgomery is going to be the chalkiest SP early while the Rangers should be the most popular stack.
TEX 5-star plays: Corey Seager
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .194 against RHPs.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Allen
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against LHPs.
New York Yankees (-120) @ Chicago White Sox
Pitchers:
Yankees – Luis Severino
White Sox – Mike Clevinger
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Yankees bats are starting to wake up some but they do strike out. Toussaint was having a great game until his walks shot up and that led to some longer innings. Severino has looked like total trash for weeks now but he faces a White Sox lineup that’s struggling. What’s going to give? I don’t think I want to fully stack either side but mini-stacks are extremely intriguing to me.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Aaron Judge
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Robert, Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs.
St Louis Cardinals @ Tampa Bay Rays (-160)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Dakota Hudson
Rays – Jalen Beeks
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I’m really glad this game isn’t on the main slate because I am lost. Hudson flashes being strong but he can give up a ton of hits despite being an extreme groundball. The Rays lineup has become extremely hit or miss as the season winds down. Beeks has great stuff as an opener but it turns into a bullpen game and I hate using bats against bullpen game plans.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against LHPs.
TB 5-star plays: Wander Franco
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Isaac Paredes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 against RHPs.
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Los Angeles Dodgers (-135) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Bobby Miller
D’Backs – Merrill Kelly
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The entire Dodgers roster has a combined OPS of .882 against Kelly, across 210 PAs. He has struggled mightily against the Dodgers in his career. Miller hasn’t been as sharp as he was the first handful of starts at the MLB level but he gets a struggling ARI lineup to deal with.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, Max Muncy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .200 against RHPs.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel, Christian Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs.
Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets (-115)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
Mets – David Peterson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We should see some offense in this game, I would hope? Peterson has looked decent but as he stretches back out, I expect some regression to hit and it should come against a Cubs squad winning games right now. I don’t really love the Mets lineup for full stacks but I definitely love it for mini-stacks right now. Hendricks can throw some pretty solid BP sessions.
CHC 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against LHPs.
NYM 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against RHPs.
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Angels (-140)
Pitchers:
Giants – Ryan Walker
Angels – Shohei Ohtani
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The Angels being -140 with Shohei on the mound seems really low. I know the Giants are probably rolling out a bullpen game as they used both Junis and Wood last night. The tough part here is that we can’t really stack the Angels with confidence since we don’t get Ohtani. As far as Ohtani the pitcher, we have to worry as he’s been dealing with a finger/hand issue for a few starts and left last start due to cramping.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Patrick Bailey, Lamonte Wade Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against RHPs.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Rengifo, Mike Moustakas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .193 against RHPs.
San Diego Padres (-145) @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
Padres – Yu Darvish
Mariners – Emerson Hancock
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Hancock is a top prospect making his debut, after jumping up from AA. There are some question marks with him but he’s min priced on DK. Just an error on their part. Darvish gets a K upside boost in this match-up and he’s been solid over his last couple weeks. I understand wanting to stack both sides but I lean toward the pitching in this match-up with a preference for mini-stacks.
SD 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Jake Cronenworth
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez, JP Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Atlanta Braves
- Baltimore Orioles
MLB Dinger of the Day – Matt Olson, Braves
Jul 8, 2023; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Olson (28) hits an rbi single against the Tampa Bay Rays in the fourth inning at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
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