Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 8/8:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Max Scherzer
- Sonny Gray
- Zack Wheeler
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Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers (-225)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
Brewers – Wade Miley
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We probably have to consider both SPs, even though it feels dirty. I think Miley probably gets us 75-80 pitches which should be enough to return a strong score on DK (not in play on FD for me). Freeland has absolutely dominated the MIL roster in previous meetings and we know that they struggle against LHPs overall. Can we really trust Freeland on the road (weird to say he’s been stronger in Coors)?
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Elias Diaz, Jurickson Profar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against LHPs.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mark Canha, William Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 against LHPs.
Houston Astros (-130) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Astros – Framber Valdez
Orioles – Grayson Rodriguez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Do we ride Valdez after his no-hitter or trust the Orioles to do what they have been doing? I normally love taking LHPs in Camden but I am not sure I want to ride with Valdez. I think he’s a fine play but I may just fade him for cheaper options who should offer the same upside. Gray-Rod hasn’t been good in Camden and I think he could struggle with the Alvarez-Tucker combination.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against LHPs.
Miami Marlins (-145) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Marlins – Braxton Garrett
Reds – Luke Weaver
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. I am a little shocked to see the Marlins favored here. I know that Garrett has been much better than Weaver has but the offenses are completely different and the Reds are far more dangerous. Great game to game stack, if you ask me. I always use Senzel against LHPs so today will be no different.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan De La Cruz, Jazz Chisholm
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 against RHPs.
CIN 5-star plays: Nick Senzel
4-star plays: Matt McLain, Spencer Steer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against LHPs.
Atlanta Braves (-165) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Braves – Yonny Chirinos
Pirates – Mitch Keller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total 0f 10. The Pirates found a way to attack Strider yesterday and I’m still not sure how. Chirinos certainly isn’t Strider but I also don’t think he’s a pushover either. The Braves bats should bounce back as Keller has had his struggles after starting the season out at an elite level. Seeing a 10 total in this ballpark really opens ones eyes so I think the Braves hit 3+ HRs tonight.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Austin Riley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .225 against RHPs.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Alika Williams
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs.
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Toronto Blue Jays (-130) @ Cleveland Guardians
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Yusei Kikuchi
Guardians – Tanner Bibee
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. As much as I hate Kikuchi, we probably have to be about him tonight. The Guardians are so bad against LHPs and we could see Ramirez begin a suspension (he’s currently appealing). Bibee could build off of Gavin Williams’ start last night or he could have a tough time. Bibee has allowed 10 HRs this season, 9 of which have been hit by RHBs. That’s a ratio that isn’t great against TOR with their RH power. I just wish Bichette was in the lineup.
TOR 5-star plays: George Springer
4-star plays: Davis Schneider
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against RHPs.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Oscar Gonzalez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 against LHPs.
Minnesota Twins (-120) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Twins – Sonny Gray
Tigers – Eduardo Rodriguez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Tough to not love the pitching in this match-up but I don’t mind chasing mini-stacks and one-offs for HRs between these two teams. Jeffers has been absolutely locked in at the plate the last 2 weeks while Luplow gives the Twins some RH punch against LHPs. I wouldn’t be shocked if Kerry Carpenter takes Gray deep, maybe even twice this evening.
MIN 5-star plays: Ryan Jeffers
4-star plays: Max Kepler, Jordan Luplow
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against LHPs.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kerry Carpenter
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 against RHPs.
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (-285) – Game 2
Pitchers:
Nationals – Trevor Williams
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 9. Remember that teams can make weird changes to their pitching plans for doubleheaders. The Phillies roster has 13 HRs in 145 PAs against Williams in their careers. When looking at it, the 13 HRs have been hit by Schwarber (4), Realmuto (3), Turner (3), Castellanos (2) and Drew Ellis with 1. That looks like a strong team to be stacking in action today (minus the Drew Ellis addition).
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: CJ Abrams, Lane Thomas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 against RHPs.
PHI 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .153 against RHPs.
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (-210) – Game 2
Pitchers:
Nationals – Josiah Gray
Phillies – Ranger Suarez
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 9. Remember that teams can make weird changes to their pitching plans for doubleheaders. The Phillies have had a ton of success against both of the WSH projected starters, could we see some HR fireworks in this doubleheader? I like the Nationals as a sneaky stack option or mini-stack option against LHPs.
WSH 5-star plays: Lane Thomas
4-star plays: Riley Adams, Joey Meneses
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against LHPs.
PHI 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .153 against RHPs.
Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox (-178)
Pitchers:
Royals – Brady Singer
Red Sox – Kutter Crawford
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I actually want to be on both SPs but maybe I need to pump the brakes on Brady Singer. He has looked much better recently and BOS did struggle with KC pitching yesterday. With that being said, the game has one of the highest totals on the slate so I don’t want to try and get too cute overall. I do think that Crawford is interesting because the KC squad isn’t all that great top to bottom.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: MJ Melendez, Bobby Witt Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against RHPs.
BOS 5-star plays: Jarren Duran
4-star plays: Masataka Yoshida
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs.
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Texas Rangers (-260) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Rangers – Max Scherzer
Athletics – JP Sears
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Scherzer is going to be the chalk and I am all for it but I do think he could have a hiccup in this match-up. A couple of the A’s are swinging it well and we know that Scherzer can give up a long ball or two. I am back on my Mitch Garver is amazing kick (wish he was still in MIN). He’s destroying LHPs and I had him to hit an HR last night but had to settle for two doubles.
TEX 5-star plays: Mitch Garver
4-star plays: Robbie Grossman, Adolis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 against LHPs.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Seth Brown, Zack Gelof
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 against RHPs.
New York Yankees (-160) @ Chicago White Sox
Pitchers:
Yankees – Clarke Schmidt
White Sox – Touki Toussaint
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. This game might be a sneaky one for pitching, despite the 9 total. Schmidt has been solid of late, even if it hasn’t led to big time DFS scores while Toussaint has really looked solid. I know both offenses have plenty of power upside but I don’t feel great stacking either side. I do think that mini-stacks are very viable in this one.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Giancarlo Stanton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against RHPs.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Robert, Andrew Vaughn
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against RHPs.
St Louis Cardinals @ Tampa Bay Rays (-178)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Miles Mikolas
Rays – Zach Eflin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I think there are clear routes in this game but it’s basically mini-stacks only for me. I do think that TB could explode against Mikolas but I prefer the top part of their lineup. Eflin has been really up and down in the 2nd half but the Cardinals are not a consistent offense as they just can’t seem to wake up.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Nolan Gorman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs.
TB 5-star plays: Wander Franco
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .191 against RHPs.
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Los Angeles Dodgers (-160) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Julio Urias
D’Backs – Brandon Pfaadt
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Something has to give in this game as Urias has been so damn bad on the road but the D’Backs haven’t been good of late, especially against LHPs. I lean more towards Urias figuring it out but I don’t mind Gurriel at all. Pfaadt has really struggled at home and this is not a good match-up for him with how the Dodgers are swinging it. I expect the Dodgers to be the highest owned team tonight.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, James Outman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .201 against RHPs.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel, Carson Kelly
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against LHPs.
Chicago Cubs (-135) @ New York Mets
Pitchers:
Cubs – Jameson Taillon
Mets – Carlos Carrasco
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Call me crazy but I think Taillon is a sneaky upside play, despite the strong game total. He has thrown the ball a ton better as the season has gone on and this Mets offense has a ton of question marks right now, even if they did explode last night. The Cubs bats have been rolling and I think that continues against Carrasco. Bellinger is one of my favorite plays on the slate.
CHC 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: Ian Happ, Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against RHPs.
NYM 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against RHPs.
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Giants – Alex Wood (PLR)
Angels – Lucas Giolito
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Giolito looked horrible in his LAA debut so it’s tough to like him here. I do know that SF has some K issues so there is some upside with him but there are HR risks. If we get a guarantee that Wood is the long man tonight, I really like his upside against a struggling LAA lineup. There’s some powerful RHBs that he has to deal with but they’ve been slumping.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joc Pederson, Lamonte Wade Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Randall Grichuk
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against LHPs.
San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners (-120)
Pitchers:
Padres – Nick Martinez
Mariners – Logan Gilbert
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I am having a hard time pinpointing how to attack this game. The lower total seems to scream that I should be on Logan Gilbert but it’s the damn Padres potent offense that he’s facing. Martinez probably only goes 3-4 innings so he’s not viable for me, even though the K upside is attractive. I’d prefer to attack Martinez with LHBs but the Mariners don’t have much from that side with power.
SD 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Jake Cronenworth
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against RHPs.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez, Cade Marlowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Chicago Cubs
- Atlanta Braves
MLB Dinger of the Day – Freddie Freeman, Dodgers
Apr 8, 2022; Denver, Colorado, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman (5) looks on during in the seventh inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
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