Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 8/5:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Aaron Civale
- Corbin Burnes
- Steven Matz
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Colorado Rockies @ St Louis Cardinals (-267)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Ty Blach
Cardinals – Steven Matz
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I will update the evening game breakdowns once the early games get going.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Elias Diaz, Jurickson Profar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against LHPs.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Tyler O’Neill
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against LHPs.
Houston Astros (-145) @ New York Yankees
Pitchers:
Astros – Justin Verlander
Yankees – Nestor Cortes
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We get to see Verlander return to the Astros, which is just weird considering the Astros could have just re-signed him in the offseason and saved their prospects but that’s a discussion for another day. Cortes is making his IL return, early, and should be limited to the 60-65 pitch range. I like the way the Astros bats are performing right now so I will be all about them in my GPP builds.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against LHPs.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jake Bauers, Giancarlo Stanton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against RHPs.
Miami Marlins @ Texas Rangers (-190)
Pitchers:
Marlins – George Soriano
Rangers – Jon Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Tough to not love the Rangers against an RP making the start who has struggled with LHBs. We know how dangerous this TEX lineup is at home and Seager has to be one of the favorites for a Dinger today. Gray hasn’t looked good for a while now so I have reservations but he’s gotten some extended rest so maybe he figures it out again? Josh Bell has looked good with MIA and I would think he’s barely owned on the early slate.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Joey Wendle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 against RHPs.
TEX 5-star plays: Corey Seager
4-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe, Adolis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .191 against RHPs.
Atlanta Braves (-155) @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Braves – Bryce Elder
Cubs – Javier Assad
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total 0f 10. If the wind would be blowing out in this one, I think we’d see a total around 13 with how these teams have been hitting HRs lately. The Braves are certainly the best offense in baseball at this point. Assad has been pretty damn good the last month and a half. The issue is that he’s been used in shorter outings. He did throw 62 pitches his last time out so maybe we see him go 75-ish but still, it’s the Braves. Elder hasn’t been picking up Ks so I feel like the Cubs are where we should look for some sneaky GPP uside.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Austin Riley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .226 against RHPs.
CHC 5-star plays: Jeimer Candelario
4-star plays: Mike Tauchman, Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs.
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Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians (-145)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Michael Kopech
Guardians – Noah Syndergaard
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Andrew Vaughn
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against RHPs.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 against RHPs.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Minnesota Twins (-160)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Ryne Nelson
Twins – Kenta Maeda
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against RHPs.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Max Kepler, Matt Wallner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 against RHPs.
Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds (-240)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Joan Adon or Trevor Williams
Reds – Andrew Abbott
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 10.5. The Reds should be extremely popular while Abbott has been filthy at home so far this season. Washington doesn’t strike out a ton but I do think they start to strike out a bit more as they give different players run at the MLB level. I wouldn’t be shocked if we see 5+ HRs in this match-up. We haven’t seen an official WSH SP announcement as it is Williams’ turn but he might not be back in time.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Riley Adams, Lane Thomas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against LHPs.
CIN 5-star plays: Elly De La Cruz
4-star plays: Matt McLain, Joey Votto
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .163 against RHPs.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Jose Berrios
Red Sox – John Schreiber/Nick Pivetta
Rundown:
We are still waiting on the Vegas information. The Blue Jays as a roster have 10 HRs in about 174 PAs against Pivetta over the years so there’s plenty of HR upside but he’s been so dominant K wise. I think the Red Sox offense bounces back a little as they have hit Berrios well but Berrios has been a different pitcher the last month or so.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Belt, Vlad Guerrero
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against RHPs.
BOS 5-star plays: Jarren Duran
4-star plays: Masataka Yoshida, Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs.
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San Francisco Giants (-178) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Giants – Ross Stripling
Athletics – Paul Blackburn
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Lamonte Wade, Michael Conforto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against RHPs.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Seth Brown, Zack Gelof
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against RHPs.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers (-260)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Bailey Falter
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Alfonso Rivas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against RHPs.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: William Contreras, Mark Canha
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against LHPs.
Tampa Bay Rays (-150) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Rays – Aaron Civale
Tigers – Tarik Skubal
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Civale making his debut against a struggling offense (better than saying they are just flat out bad). I like the upside and he’s going to be pretty popular on the early slate of games. Skubal can be extremely impressive but so can the Rays bats. It’s an interesting spot to play both sides of. Skubal probably sits in the 80 pitch range for the rest of the season as they take it easy on him.
TB 5-star plays: Isaac Paredes
4-star plays: Curtis Mead, Wander Franco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .194 against LHPs.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Riley Greene
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 against RHPs.
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Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Ryan Yarbrough
Padres – Blake Snell
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, Chris Taylor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .225 against LHPs.
SD 5-star plays: Ha-Seong Kim, Manny Machado
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 against RHPs.
New York Mets @ Baltimore Orioles (-190)
Pitchers:
Mets – Tylor Megill
Orioles – Kyle Gibson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5.
NYM 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Starling Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against RHPs.
BAL 5-star plays: Gunnar Henderson
4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against RHPs.
Seattle Mariners (-140) @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Mariners – George Kirby
Angels – Tyler Anderson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.
SEA 5-star plays: Julio Rodriguez
4-star plays: Ty France, Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against LHPs.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Luis Rengifo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .194 against RHPs.
Kansas City Royals @ Philadelphia Phillies (-235)
Pitchers:
Royals – Alec Marsh
Phillies – Cristopher Sanchez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5.
KC 5-star plays: Bobby Witt
4-star plays: Maikel Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 against LHPs.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryson Stott
4-star plays: Alec Bohm, Brandon Marsh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- T
- B
- D
MLB Dinger of the Day – Bobby Witt, Royals
May 3, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (7) hits an RBI triple during the seventh inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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