Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 8/29:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Corbin Burnes
- Cole Ragans
- George Kirby
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Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs (-135)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Cubs – Justin Steele
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. The wind is blowing in pretty strongly at Wrigley for this one. That makes both SPs very strong options tonight. Burnes has the greater ceiling but I feel like Steele is overlooked and actually might have the better match-up. Going to be tough to force in bats from this game so maybe it’s pitchers only. There are a couple of decent BvP spots in this match-up, however.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against LHPs.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against RHPs.
Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox (-125)
Pitchers:
Astros – JP France
Red Sox – Brayan Bello
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. This match-up just happened last week and France took it on the chin or worse than the chin in that one. I do think he bounces back but I hate taking pitchers when they face the same team in back to back starts. Offense should be our main target in this one. HOU has plenty of guys getting it done recently while Duvall is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Jeremy Pena
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against RHPs.
BOS 5-star plays: Adam Duvall
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, Justin Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 against RHPs.
Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins (-170)
Pitchers:
Guardians – Gavin Williams
Twins – Pablo Lopez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I really like this SP match-up but it’s hard to ignore the power the Twins have been displaying (17 HRs over their last 7 games). Williams has been impressive on the road and the Twins do strike out quite a bit. Lopez has a chance to take over the AL lead in strikeouts but he needs a double-digit K performance. CLE doesn’t strike out a ton but they have been more vulnerable in the second half.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Andres Gimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 against RHPs.
MIN 5-star plays: Royce Lewis
4-star plays: Max Kepler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 against RHPs.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Kansas City Royals (-155)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Colin Selby
Royals – Cole Ragans
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total 0f 9. I believe the Pirates will follow Selby with Ortiz but it’s not confirmed just yet. The Royals have been struggling some but their LHBs are in a great spot against Selby/Ortiz. Ragans has been dominant at the MLB level this season (as a starter). The Pirates are a really weak offense against LHPs but he will have to navigate Hayes and Joe tonight. I think he’s SUPER popular on DK.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Connor Joe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 against LHPs.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Drew Waters, Michael Massey
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs.
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Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore Orioles (-235)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Jesse Scholtens
Orioles – Dean Kremer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Kremer has an HR issue but the White Sox aren’t exactly squaring up the baseball. Moncada has been hot over the last week and I like his match-up in this one. I think the Orioles are going to be somewhat popular tonight but I have some questions. Scholtens has been respectable and when you dig into his numbers, you realize he’s a pretty severe reverse splits guy. Can the O’s take advantage of that?
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Yoan Moncada
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against RHPs.
BAL 5-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle
4-star plays: Austin Hays, Anthony Santander
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against RHPs.
New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers (-120)
Pitchers:
Yankees – Michael King
Tigers – Tarik Skubal
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. There are some clear bats to use in this match-up as the Yankees have showcased a ton of power against LHPs while also flashing it recently. The Tigers are actually favored over the Yankees while Meadows has enjoyed a great start to his MLB career. Kerry Carpenter has quietly been one of the best hitters in baseball during August. We aren’t sure what the Yankees will do after King but he probably throws 60-ish pitches at this point.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: Team ISO of .209 against LHPs.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Parker Meadows, Kerry Carpenter
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against RHPs.
Washington Nationals @ Toronto Blue Jays (-210)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Mackenzie Gore
Blue Jays – Jose Berrios
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. I’m a Gore fan but he’s been so extreme that I just don’t think we can trust him on the road. I know Toronto isn’t the strongest against LHPs but they have been better over the last month. Bichette’s status is really important to this team and in this match-up. Berrios has been strong and while we know that WSH doesn’t strike out much, they don’t have a ton of power against RHPs either.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: CJ Abrams
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 against RHPs.
TOR 5-star plays: Davis Schneider
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, Ernie Clement or Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .145 against LHPs.
Oakland Athletics @ Seattle Mariners (-320)
Pitchers:
Athletics – Ken Waldichuk
Mariners – George Kirby
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The Mariners offense has been absolutely rolling in August, especially over the last 2 weeks. They have averaged over 6 runs per game during the month and have hit 45 HRs in the 25 games played so far. Waldichuk is in an extremely difficult spot tonight. Kirby lines up against one of the coldest offenses in baseball and he should return some strong fantasy points for us.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shea Langeliers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 against RHPs.
SEA 5-star plays: Julio Rodriguez
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, Cal Raleigh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against LHPs.
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Texas Rangers (-130) @ New York Mets
Pitchers:
Rangers – Andrew Heaney
Mets – Jose Quintana
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Quintana has allowed just 1 HR so far in 41 innings during the 2023 season. That’s a pretty significant stat going against a powerful TEX offense. Maybe we need to downgrade them a bit in this match-up. There is some potential weather in NY as well. Heaney is in a decent spot but I don’t see myself looking his way because of all the pitching options we do have on this slate.
TEX 5-star plays: Marcus Semien
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Mitch Garver
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 against LHPs.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against LHPs.
Atlanta Braves (-267) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Braves – Charlie Morton
Rockies – Peter Lambert
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 12. Not much needs to be said about the Braves. The league’s best offense and a historically great one, playing in Coors field against what I would consider (statistically) the worst pitching staff in baseball. The elevated ATL prices are justified at this point. Morton has been a beast the last couple of starts but can we rely on him in Coors? I am torn but he’s certainly in the conversation tonight.
ATL 5-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Marcell Ozuna
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Matt Olson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .221 against RHPs.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan McMahon, Hunter Goodman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs.
Los Angeles Angels @ Philadelphia Phillies (-170)
Pitchers:
Angels – Tyler Anderson
Phillies – Michael Lorenzen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Lorenzen hasn’t been the sharpest since his no-hitter but can we really blame him? It’s tough to hit a peak performance and then have to come back to random games. He gets a decent match-up against a struggling LAA lineup and he’s been best against LHBs. Anderson hasn’t been great and the Phillies have plenty of power to attack him with at home.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Mike Moustakas, Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 against RHPs.
PHI 5-star plays: Trea Turner, Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Alec Bohm
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 against LHPs.
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Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins (-115)
Pitchers:
Rays – Aaron Civale
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. This should be a pretty solid pitcher’s duel. I trust the Rays offense more than the Marlins but I think Alcantara has the higher ceiling in this spot. Civale hasn’t looked great with TB at least compared to how he was throwing the ball with CLE prior to the trade. Brandon Lowe is a sneaky play as he has hit Alcantara pretty well in previous meetings. I don’t mind stacking the pitchers in this one on DK.
TB 5-star plays: Brandon Lowe
4-star plays: Josh Lowe, Isaac Paredes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 against RHPs.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Jorge Soler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against RHPs.
Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants (-165)
Pitchers:
Reds – Brandon Williamson
Giants – Alex Cobb
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. This is an interesting SP match-up as the Reds are struggling mightily and Cobb has been great at home in 2023. The Giants have a lineup that has been really weak against LHPs but a few guys have hit HRs off of Williamson this season. The park is great for pitching so it’s tough to think they hit multiple HRs again tonight. Slater-Flores will be one of my favorite 2-man stacks this evening.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Martini, TJ Friedl
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs.
SF 5-star plays: Wilmer Flores
4-star plays: Austin Slater
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 against LHPs.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-205)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Merrill Kelly
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The Dodgers have done a ton of damage to Kelly over the last couple of seasons. He was decent against them the last time they saw him but I would think they wake up against him after spanking Gallen last night. The question mark in this one is Kershaw. The D’Backs aren’t overly strong against LHPs and he’s capable of being a stud but they do have a few guys who have enjoyed some powerful success against him.
ARI 5-star plays: Christian Walker
4-star plays: Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against LHPs.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, James Outman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 against RHPs.
San Diego Padres (-155) @ St Louis Cardinals
Pitchers:
Padres – Seth Lugo
Cardinals – Zack Thompson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Goldschmidt and Arenado are a combined 12 for 19 with 5 HRs against Lugo in their careers. Add in that Goldschmidt has an OPS of 1.107 over the last week and you get a guy that’s an excellent one-off option. Lugo has been strong and I like the match-up overall for him, he just has to avoid those 2. Thompson is an interesting option but I like the top half of the SD lineup against LHPs.
SD 5-star plays: Garrett Cooper
4-star plays: Ha-Seong Kim, Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 against LHPs.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Atlanta Braves
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Seattle Mariners
MLB Dinger of the Day – Adam Duvall, Red Sox
Aug 28, 2023; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox center fielder Adam Duvall (18) hits a two run home run against the Houston Astros in the fifth inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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