Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 8/22:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Bobby Miller
- Blake Snell
- Mike Clevinger
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Minnesota Twins (-115) @ Milwaukee Brewers
Pitchers:
Twins – Bailey Ober
Brewers – Wade Miley
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Twins have moved to being a favorite after it opened as a pick’em when I looked early this morning. Ober has been solid and he takes on a weak offensive lineup, I just haven’t liked the way he’s thrown the ball of late. Miley gets a K boost in this match-up but he’s not exactly a K guy so does he really get a big boost? Neither offense really excites me at this point.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Royce Lewis, Michael Taylor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against LHPs.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willy Adames, Tyrone Taylor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 against RHPs.
Boston Red Sox @ Houston Astros (-150)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Tanner Houck
Astros – Justin Verlander
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Houck is making his return from the IL after getting drilled in the face/head. Verlander has been solid but he doesn’t seem to have a gigantic ceiling any longer. The Boston lineup is dangerous but it’s still Justin Verlander. Houston’s offense has been more dangerous against LHPs but they have a few guys destroying the ball at the moment. Chas McCormick has been a stud this season.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs.
HOU 5-star plays: Chas McCormick
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-210) @ Cleveland Guardians
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Bobby Miller
Guardians – Noah Syndergaard
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Surprisingly, most of the LAD lineup is cold at the moment but you still have Betts and Freeman at the top. Betts has moved ahead of Freeman into the #2 spot in MVP odds. Miller is in a sneaky great spot as the Guardians are super weak from a power standpoint and he’s been a reverse splits guy, which should be fine against this CLE lineup. Do we fully stack the Dodgers or just jam in mini-stacks?
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, JD Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 against RHPs.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 against RHPs.
St Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-135)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Adam Wainwright
Pirates – Johan Oviedo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total 0f 10. Man oh man, what the hell do we do with this game? Neither lineup is tearing the cover off of the ball right now but the game total is double digits, at a pitchers park. Wainwright has been about as bad as you can be this season, which is tough to stomach. Oviedo dominated the Cards earlier this season so I have some interest in him again, especially with the way the STL lineup has looked. Do we just fade a double-digit run total game?
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Tyler O’Neill
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Endy Rodriguez, Andrew McCutchen
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs.
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Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles (-125)
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Yusei Kikuchi
Orioles – Grayson Rodriguez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. This is an under the radar spot for pitching, which is crazy considering the type of offenses that we have. Kikuchi, as an LHP, in Camden is really intriguing to me while Gray Rod faces a team that’s best hitters are RH. Mountcastle has absolutely dominated Kikuchi in previous match-ups while there is also some strong BvP from others in the presumed BAL lineup.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Belt, Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs.
BAL 5-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle
4-star plays: Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against LHPs.
Chicago Cubs (-120) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Cubs – Drew Smyly
Tigers – Reese Olson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I am glad this game isn’t on the main slate tonight as I feel like I’d have to use pitching with some one-offs and mini-stacks. Torkelson has been on an absolute heater over the last couple of weeks and since June 1st is one of the best power hitters in baseball. Maybe he’s just finally getting shit figured out at the MLB level after being rushed to the bigs for basically no reason.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Seiya Suzuki, Nick Madrigal
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against RHPs.
DET 5-star plays: Spencer Torkelson
4-star plays: Javier Baez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 against LHPs.
Washington Nationals @ New York Yankees (-190)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Josiah Gray
Yankees – Carlos Rodon
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. I actually think this game has sneaky blow-up potential. Rodon is making his return from the IL, after throwing just a single simulated game. The Nationals aren’t striking out (Rodon hasn’t been striking anybody out either) and they have a few guys that hit LHPs really well. Gray gives up more power to RHBs and that’s a problem against this NYY squad, even if they are struggling overall.
WSH 5-star plays: Stone Garrett
4-star plays: Lane Thomas, Riley Adams
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against LHPs.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Anthony Volpe
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .163 against RHPs.
Seattle Mariners (-160) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Mariners – Bryan Woo
White Sox – Mike Clevinger
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Woo is making his return from the IL and I believe he skipped making rehab starts so he’s probably going to be limited. He has been crushed by LHBs this season so I have this weird feeling we see Gavin Sheets go deep tonight. The Mariners bats have awoken recently so it makes Clevinger a really dangerous play but he has thrown the ball well and we know that SEA has K’s in their lineup.
SEA 5-star plays: Julio Rodriguez
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against RHPs.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Gavin Sheets
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs.
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Kansas City Royals @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Royals – Zerpa/Greinke
A’s – Hogan Harris
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Tough to get a reason on this one without knowing what the teams plan to do with their pitching staff. The guys listed above are the rumored or most likely options but nothing is set in stone yet. Witt has been a beast in the second half while I also really like Velazquez’s upside. The A’s could be a sneaky mini-stack option against Greinke tonight as Brown has had success against him and Gelof/Rooker are swinging it well.
KC 5-star plays: Bobby Witt
4-star plays: Nelson Velazquez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against LHPs.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Zack Gelof, Brent Rooker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against RHPs.
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves (-225)
Pitchers:
Mets – Tylor Megill
Braves – Bryce Elder
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10.5. Hard to not love this game for GPP upside purposes. I don’t think either pitcher gets it done even with Elder having been decent of late. The Braves are the better team but the Mets lineup comes in with stronger numbers over the last week. Do we see a bunch of HRs hit in ATL tonight? I wouldn’t be shocked with how hot it is there compared to other games on the slate.
NYM 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, DJ Stewart
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs.
ATL 5-star plays: Eddie Rosario
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Marcell Ozuna
GPP Note: Team ISO of .220 against RHPs.
San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies (-130)
Pitchers:
Giants – Kyle Harrison
Phillies – Taijuan Walker
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Harrison is getting the call for his MLB debut as the Giants’ top pitching prospect. He gets a tough spot but the PHI lineup can have some struggles. There are a few bats that make a ton of sense against him. Pederson has been swinging it well of late and he has hit Walker pretty well in a bunch of previous at-bats. Flores has had a surprising second half of the season.
SF 5-star plays: Joc Pederson
4-star plays: Wilmer Flores
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs.
PHI 5-star plays: Trea Turner
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Alec Bohm
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 against LHPs.
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Colorado Rockies @ Tampa Bay Rays (-278)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Ty Blach
Rays – Zack Littell
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I am glad this game isn’t on the main slate because I would feel obligated to stack the Rays every which way possible. I think Blach has been getting ridiculously lucky and he’s due for a blow-up. A few of the COL bats have been heating up but are their recent numbers inflated by Coors? Littell is an interesting option because I think he’s capable of doing just enough.
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Nolan Jones
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs.
TB 5-star plays: Harold Ramirez
4-star plays: Josh Lowe, Isaac Paredes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against LHPs.
Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Angels (-155)
Pitchers:
Reds – Graham Ashcraft
Angels – Lucas Giolito
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Mike Trout is rumored to be returning tonight so I’m interested in seeing what their lineup looks like. Ashcraft has looked decent at the MLB level this time around and there are some Ks in the LAA lineup. Giolito hasn’t been great with LAA but CIN hasn’t exactly been tearing it up at the plate of late. I wouldn’t be shocked at this one going under but I also wouldn’t be shocked if each team hits 3 HRs.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Matt McLain, Tyler Stephenson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Mike Trout
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 against RHPs.
Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-125)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Jon Gray
D’Backs – Zac Gallen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. A few of the D’Backs bats have had strong success against Gray previously and they have some energy after last night’s walk-off W. Gallen is the frontrunner for NL Cy Young and he can make a huge case against one of the top offenses in baseball tonight.
TEX 5-star plays: Corey Seager
4-star plays: Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 against RHPs.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Christian Walker, Alek Thomas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against RHPs.
Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres (-190)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Jesus Luzardo
Padres – Blake Snell
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Great pitching match-up but the issue is that I think that Snell is due for a rough performance while Luzardo has been struggling of late. I like the Padres quite a bit against LHPs so I will definitely have them in my top 5 or 6 stacks tonight. MIA has a couple of interesting guys to use as one-offs or a mini-stack tonight. Soler has 13 HRs in 98 ABs against LHPs this season.
MIA 5-star plays: Jorge Soler
4-star plays: Nick Fortes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against LHPs.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Ha-Seong Kim, Fernando Tatis Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 against LHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Atlanta Braves
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- Los Angeles Dodgers
MLB Dinger of the Day – Spencer Torkelson, Tigers
May 18, 2021; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Blake Snell (4) pithes against the Colorado Rockies during the first inning at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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