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MLB DFS Main Slate Advice | Picks, Stacks, Strategy Projections Today August 16th| Fanduel Draftkings

Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 8/16:

Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.

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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers

I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the  MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.

  • Kenta Maeda
  • Kevin Gausman
  • Clayton Kershaw

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Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-235)

Pitchers:

Brewers – Wade Miley

Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Dodgers are just always on the list for stacks because of how dangerous they are. I rarely feel good about stacking MIL and tonight is another night where I just don’t like the idea of doing so. I am generally taking SPs against the Brewers at this point. No idea how that team is in first place (similar to the Twins). Kershaw returned from the IL and looked strong but may be limited to around 80 pitches tonight. Is that enough to get it done against this MIL squad? I do think it is.

MIL 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Mark Canha

GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against LHPs.

LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman

4-star plays: Chris Taylor, Mookie Betts

GPP Note: Team ISO of .220 against LHPs.


Houston Astros (-115) @ Miami Marlins

Pitchers:

Astros – Justin Verlander

Marlins – Jesus Luzardo

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Big difference from yesterday’s game in which we saw some runs and they were expected. We are supposed to see a pitchers duel here and while I think that’s likely, I also wouldn’t be shocked if we end up with 9 or 10 runs in this game. Luzardo is all over the place in his performances and the Astros actually hit LHPs better than RHPs this year (from a power standpoint).

HOU 5-star plays: Jose Altuve (DTD)

4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Chas McCormick

GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 against LHPs.

MIA 5-star plays: Josh Bell

4-star plays: Jake Burger

GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 against RHPs.


Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds (-180)

Pitchers:

Guardians – Noah Syndergaard

Reds – Andrew Abbott

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Elly hit his first MLB HR off of Syndergaard when he was with the Dodgers, could we see another massive HR from him today?  If he doesn’t hit one, I would guess he steals a bag or two. Speaking of stealing a bag or two, I think the Reds could run wild against Syndergaard. Abbott is an interesting option as the Guardians are super weak against LHPs.

CLE 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Andres Gimenez, Oscar Gonzalez

GPP Note: Team ISO of .127 against LHPs.

CIN 5-star plays: Elly De La Cruz

4-star plays: Matt McLain, Will Benson

GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs.


Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets (-125)

Pitchers:

Pirates – Johan Oviedo

Mets – Tylor Megill

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total 0f 8.5. You would think that the SPs would be ones that I want to pick on in this one but that’s not really the case. I don’t trust either offense to explode enough at this point. I do believe that both sides have strong mini-stack options but that’s about it for me. Nimmo seems like the smartest play in this game with how he has been swinging it. Hayes and Peguero are very interesting, especially if they hit back-to-back.

PIT 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Liover Peguero, Ke’Bryan Hayes

GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against RHPs.

NYM 5-star plays: Brandon Nimmo

4-star plays: Pete Alonso

GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs.


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Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays (-155)

Pitchers:

Phillies – Aaron Nola

Blue Jays – Kevin Gausman

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 8. This match-up was underwhelming last night so tonight we probably see explosive offensive performances! I’m only half kidding as I do think both SPs, especially Gausman, are definitely in play. I’m not a huge Nola fan but the Blue Jays are certainly capable of striking out recently. There are a couple of guys on the Phillies who have solid BvP against Gausman.

PHI 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Nick Castellanos, Bryce Harper

GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs.

TOR 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Brandon Belt, Cavan Biggio

GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs.


Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins (-190)

Pitchers:

Tigers – Reese Olson

Twins – Kenta Maeda

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 8.5. This is the best pitching match-up of the early slate, as far as DFS goes. The issue that I have noticed is that the wind is blowing out in Minnesota today. Olson has racked up K’s against the Twins this season while Maeda has dominated the Tigers. I think the DET offense comes in a little more predictable than the Twins. Minnesota dropped their lineup as I was typing this out and Correa is resting today.

DET 5-star plays: Spencer Torkelson

4-star plays: Riley Greene

GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against RHPs.

MIN 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner

GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 against RHPs.


Boston Red Sox (-155) @ Washington Nationals

Pitchers:

Red Sox – James Paxton

Nationals – Mackenzie Gore

Rundown:

This game opened with a total of 9. I am really surprised at the total in this one. I guess I respect Paxton and Gore more than Vegas does but it’s not the first time I’ve disagreed with them. Gore is so up and down that it’s really tough to trust him but his ups are very strong. Paxton has been really solid for BOS and while WAS doesn’t K a ton, Pivetta dominated them from a K standpoint last night. I like mini-stacks of each offense but that’s about it.

BOS 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Trevor Story, Justin Turner

GPP Note: Team ISO of just .151 against LHPs.

WSH 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Lane Thomas, Riley Adams

GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against LHPs.


Seattle Mariners (-225) @ Kansas City Royals

Pitchers:

Mariners – Luis Castillo

Royals – Alec Marsh (long man)

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 9. We’ve seen some explosive offense in this series and while you’d think that Castillo keeps that from happening, I’m not sure. He hasn’t been as sharp on the road and this KC offense is rolling at the moment. I definitely prefer the SEA side for main stacks but the KC side has some sneaky stack combinations, especially if you are looking at mini-stacking them tonight.

SEA 5-star plays: Julio Rodriguez, Ty France

4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez, Teoscar Hernandez

GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs.

KC 5-star plays: Bobby Witt

4-star plays: MJ Melendez, Michael Massey

GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against RHPs.


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Oakland Athletics @ St Louis Cardinals (-190)

Pitchers:

A’s – Paul Blackburn

Cardinals – Matthew Liberatore

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I really like the Cardinals in this match-up as the top of their lineup has been rolling and if Edman is hitting 9th against the RHP, I think it’s a great spot for a wrap stack in our GPPs. Liberatore has all sorts of talent and flashes upside so he’s definitely viable in this spot. I think the A’s have a higher team total than I would have imagined so I just don’t think I can go there.

OAK 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Kevin Smith, Aledmys Diaz

GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 against LHPs.

STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado

4-star plays: Lars Nootbar, Tommy Edman

GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 against RHPs.


New York Yankees @ Atlanta Braves (-210)

Pitchers:

Yankees – Randy Vasquez

Braves – Charlie Morton

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 10. Vasquez has actually looked decent at the MLB level but we are talking about the Braves and the best offense in baseball, no thanks. Morton could be solid but does he have more upside than others tonight? I don’t think he does but the Yankees do look lost on the field right now. Just stack up the Braves and enjoy their 6+ runs on a nightly basis, especially at home.

NYY 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu

GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against RHPs.

ATL 5-star plays: Matt Olson, Austin Riley

4-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Marcell Ozuna

GPP Note: Team ISO of .223 against RHPs.


Tampa Bay Rays @ San Francisco Giants (-120)

Pitchers:

Rays – Aaron Civale

Giants – Ross Stripling

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 8.5. This feels like a game that I want to get exposure to but when looking at the potential lineups, I don’t really love that many bats. Lowe has hit Stripling before but he’s also cold at the plate. The most likely route is a Yandy Diaz or Michael Conforto game in this one where the pitchers are part of the winning formula on the early slate. Day games in SF see the ball fly better than night games but it’s still a difficult park to hit in.

TB 5-star plays: Brandon Lowe

4-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Harold Ramirez

GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 against RHPs.

SF 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Thairo Estrada

GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs.


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Arizona Diamondbacks (-135) @ Colorado Rockies

Pitchers:

D’Backs – Slade Cecconi

Rockies – Austin Gomber

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 12. It’s a Coors game with very warm temps but yet, I’m not overly excited about the game. Arizona has been struggling and we know that Colorado is a weak offense at this point. Will there be some HRs hit? Absolutely but I think we can get away with trying to HR hunt here. Marte has been cold but he has smacked Gomber in previous meetings while Walker just keeps hitting.

ARI 5-star plays: Christian Walker, Ketel Marte

4-star plays: Tommy Pham, Lourdes Gurriel

GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against LHPs.

COL 5-star plays: Ezequiel Tovar

4-star plays: Nolan Jones

GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs.


Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs (-160)

Pitchers:

White Sox – Mike Clevinger

Cubs – Javier Assad

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 11. The wind is definitely blowing out at Wrigley with a total sitting that high. Assad has looked solid as a starter but his stuff backs up a bit and his Ks have come down. I wouldn’t be shocked to see LuBob take him deep. Clevinger is a shitty human being so I will gladly stack against him. The overall Cubs lineup has cooled off quite a bit but this feels like a resurgence spot.

CWS 5-star plays: Eloy Jimenez

4-star plays: Luis Robert, Yoan Moncada

GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against RHPs.

CHC 5-star plays: Seiya Suzuki

4-star plays: Nico Hoerner, Cody Bellinger

GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs.


Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers (-170)

Pitchers:

Angels – Reid Detmers

Rangers – Jon Gray

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 9. The entire Angels lineup is going through some massive struggles right now so it’s tough to trust them, even if a few guys have hit Gray well in previous match-ups. The Rangers at home are just a dominant offense as they have a home ISO of .225 on the season. Seager can hit LHPs excellently and Garver has always crushed LHPs.

LAA 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Hunter Renfroe

GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 against RHPs.

TEX 5-star plays: Marcus Semien

4-star plays: Corey Seager, Mitch Garver

GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 against LHPs.


Baltimore Orioles @ San Diego Padres (-190)

Pitchers:

Orioles – Dean Kremer

Padres – Blake Snell

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 8. I really want to see this game blow up with runs but I just don’t think it happens. The Orioles have cooled somewhat and now they face one of the top arms in the NL. Kremer can give up the longball but a lot of the SD lineup is struggling. Could this be a spot for Juan Soto to break out of a slump? I am kind of betting on yes at this point. Mountcastle vs an LHP is always on my list of plus spots.

BAL 5-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle

4-star plays: Anthony Santander

GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against LHPs.

SD 5-star plays: Juan Soto

4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Ben Gamel

GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs.


Stacks of the Day: Main Slate

  1. Atlanta Braves
  2. Texas Rangers
  3. Los Angeles Dodgers (wow this list is super chalky, let’s add a 4th)
  4. Seattle Mariners

MLB Dinger of the Day – Seiya Suzuki, Cubs

Aug 7, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Kevin Gausman (34) throws a pitch against the Minnesota Twins during the first inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

 

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