Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 8/15:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Nick Pivetta
- Emerson Hancock
- Bailey Ober
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Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-220)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Adrian Houser
Dodgers – Bobby Miller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Both pitchers in this game have some reverse splits to them, more so for Miller than Houser. The Dodgers are just always on the list for stacks because of how dangerous they are. I rarely feel good about stacking MIL and tonight is another night where I just don’t like the idea of doing so. I am generally taking SPs against the Brewers at this point. No idea how that team is in first place (similar to the Twins).
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Willy Adames
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against RHPs.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Jason Heyward, Mookie Betts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 against RHPs.
Houston Astros (-125) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Astros – Cristian Javier
Marlins – Johnny Cueto
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Both teams have some guys swinging ultra-hot sticks right now while they also have a couple of guys who are capable of getting hot out of nowhere. Javier could be a sneaky play but he hasn’t been as sharp this season. Josh Bell has been on a freaking roll of late while Altuve is racking up multi-hit performances.
HOU 5-star plays: Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Jeremy Pena
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs.
MIA 5-star plays: Josh Bell
4-star plays: Jorge Soler, Jake Burger
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against RHPs.
Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds (-115)
Pitchers:
Guardians – Logan Allen
Reds – Graham Ashcraft
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. The wind is blowing out in Cincinnati this evening so we could see some fireworks at the plate. Both SPs have been more than capable of putting up strong performances but they are also very capable of getting smacked around. I would trust Ashcraft more as the Guardians lineup lacks punch, for the most part. The Reds need to get their offense rolling and a home series might be what they need.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andres Gimenez, Oscar Gonzalez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 against RHPs.
CIN 5-star plays: Matt McLain
4-star plays: Luke Maile, Spencer Steer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against LHPs.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets (-140)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Bailey Falter
Mets – David Peterson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total 0f 9. I want to believe in the Mets tonight but their hottest bats (outside of Alonso) are left handed. Nimmo can hit LHPs well in LvL spots so he makes sense. The top of the Pirates lineup has been heating up so I really love a Reynolds-Hayes mini-stack tonight and it should be pretty low owned in comparison to other mini-stacks on this slate. Neither pitcher intrigues me all that much.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 against LHPs.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso
4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against LHPs.
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Philadelphia Phillies (-115) @ Toronto Blue Jays
Pitchers:
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Blue Jays – Yusei Kikuchi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I understand why the game total is as low as it is but the Phillies offense has been pretty strong against LHPs and a few guys are swinging it extremely well right now. Wheeler is an interesting GPP option as he’s going to be expensive, in a difficult match-up but he’s been at his best away from home and he has double-digit K upside every time he takes the mound.
PHI 5-star plays: Trea Turner
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 against LHPs.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, George Springer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs.
Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins (-190)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Alex Faedo
Twins – Bailey Ober
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Are we about to see a Joey Gallo streak week? I think we might see him go on one of those random stretches where he hits 5 or 6 HRs over a 10-12 day stretch. He did HR against Faedo last week, as did Correa. The issue with the Tigers is that Ober has been a strong reverse splits guy and that kind of takes care of Carpenter and Greene, to a degree. I want to believe that Carpenter goes deep tonight, though.
DET 5-star plays: Kerry Carpenter
4-star plays: Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 against RHPs.
MIN 5-star plays: Carlos Correa
4-star plays: Joey Gallo, Jorge Polanco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 against RHPs.
Boston Red Sox (-170) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Nick Pivetta
Nationals – Josiah Gray
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 9. Pivetta has been filthy over the last month and a half so he sticks out as a great option for me. He has absolutely dominated RHBs while LHBs haven’t exactly had it easy against him either. Gray has been slightly reverse splits which makes Adam Duvall really interesting this evening. Casas has been a different guy in the second half, finally showcasing his upside that he came up with as a prospect.
BOS 5-star plays: Tristan Casas
4-star plays: Adam Duvall, Rafael Devers
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .176 against RHPs.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: CJ Abrams, Keibert Ruiz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 against RHPs.
Seattle Mariners (-140) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Mariners – Emerson Hancock
Royals – Jordan Lyles
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I am a fan of Emerson Hancock but can we really use a prospect against the hot Royals lineup right now? I have no idea how to answer that so I am going to spend my afternoon figuring out what to do with this game. Lyles has been better at home and he gets a K boost in this match-up but it’s still Jordan freaking Lyles. The game total is really strong so we probably just have to stack it.
SEA 5-star plays: Julio Rodriguez
4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs.
KC 5-star plays: Bobby Witt
4-star plays: MJ Melendez, Drew Waters
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs.
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Oakland Athletics @ St Louis Cardinals (-225)
Pitchers:
A’s – Spenser Watkins
Cardinals – Dakota Hudson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Both SPs have leaned reverse splits but Watkins has been hit by everybody at the MLB level. Hudson is an intriguing option against a weak hitting OAK squad because he’s a groundball guy against a team that lacks a ton of power. Gelof has been rolling for OAK and makes an excellent GPP one-off tonight. I think Arenado bounces back after a rough one last night while I hope Contreras returns but Knizner has been strong recently.
OAK 5-star plays: Zack Gelof
4-star plays: Esteury Ruiz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 against RHPs.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Willson Contreras or Andrew Knizner, Tommy Edman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against RHPs.
New York Yankees @ Atlanta Braves (-225)
Pitchers:
Yankees – Luis Severino
Braves – Bryce Elder
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11. This game opened at 11 but has already come down to 10.5 so that’s interesting. Severino has been absolutely rocked by LHBs this season and that’s not a good sign coming into this one. I could see the Yankees doing a little bit of damage tonight but they are going to be hard pressed to keep up with what I expect out of the ATL bats. Michael Harris hitting 2nd is a great thing for us with how he has swung it plus his price discount compared to the other ATL studs.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Anthony Volpe, Aaron Judge
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs.
ATL 5-star plays: Matt Olson, Austin Riley
4-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Michael Harris
GPP Note: Team ISO of .223 against RHPs.
Tampa Bay Rays @ San Francisco Giants (-115)
Pitchers:
Rays – Zack Littell
Giants – Jakob Junis
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I have a hard time wanting to attack this game, in this ballpark. I know neither SP is all that amazing but the Giants offense has been scuffling and we know the Rays can go cold, especially with all this Wander stuff going on. Lowe has crushed Junis in previous match-ups but I wonder if we see Manaea and Junis piggy back to cover 6 innings in this one. I am interested in seeing what lineup TB runs out there.
TB 5-star plays: Brandon Lowe
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .191 against RHPs.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Michael Conforto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs.
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Arizona Diamondbacks (-160) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Joe Mantiply/Bryce Jarvis
Rockies – Ty Blach
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 12.5. I know it’s a Coors series but it’s really tough to get excited about this one. Arizona has hit a huge wall in the second half and have faded quite a bit while a majority of the lineup struggles. Colorado is just a trash offense at this point after making trades and dealing with injuries. I am kind of intrigued by Jarvis if we get the official word that he will follow Mantiply tonight.
ARI 5-star plays: Christian Walker
4-star plays: Tommy Pham, Gabriel Moreno
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against LHPs.
COL 5-star plays: Ezequiel Tovar
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against RHPs.
Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs (-178)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Touki Toussaint
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Tough to not love offenses in this game as the Cubs have been rolling and the White Sox get to take on Kyle Hendricks. Toussaint has been decent for the White Sox but the wind would have to be blowing in for me to be on him this evening. Bellinger has been a beast this season while Tauchman has really stepped up in a leadoff role for this squad as they battle for a surprise postseason birth.
CWS 5-star plays: Eloy Jimenez
4-star plays: Luis Robert, Yoan Moncada
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against RHPs.
CHC 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: Nico Hoerner, Mike Tauchman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs.
Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers (-190)
Pitchers:
Angels – Lucas Giolito
Rangers – Jordan Montgomery
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. It’s to tough to ignore the Rangers when they are at home, they have a team ISO over .220 when playing at home. Giolito has an HR issue at times and he hasn’t looked perfectly comfortable with the Angels yet. Montgomery is ridiculously priced on DK so I have no interest but the Angels have been scuffling. They do have guys that have hit LHPs traditionally but can they turn it around?
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against LHPs.
TEX 5-star plays: Marcus Semien
4-star plays: Corey Seager, JP Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 against RHPs.
Baltimore Orioles @ San Diego Padres (-130)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Jack Flaherty
Padres – Michael Wacha
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The 3 guys below for the Orioles have gone a combined 18 for 46 with 11 extra-base hits (6 HRs) against Wacha in their careers. The Padres offense has gone so cold that we have to consider using Flaherty tonight, despite all of the “names” in the Padres every day lineup. Wacha is interesting off of the IL but are we going to see him for 75 pitches or more?
BAL 5-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle
4-star plays: Anthony Santander, Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against RHPs.
SD 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Trent Grisham, Fernando Tatis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Atlanta Braves
- Texas Rangers
- Philadelphia Phillies (I could have easily put the Dodgers here)
MLB Dinger of the Day – Joey Gallo, Twins
Jul 23, 2022; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves center fielder Michael Harris II (23) left fielder Guillermo Heredia (38) and right fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. (13) react after the Braves defeated the Los Angeles Angels at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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