Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 7/8:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Gerrit Cole
- Kevin Gausman
- Framber Valdez
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Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins (-125)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Tyler Wells
Twins – Sonny Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I think that Wells has more upside than Gray but Gray has been so steady and strong all season. He just dominated this BAL squad and the O’s aren’t exactly on fire at the plate. Wells is just far more volatile as he has an HR issue but he can rack up Ks against a MIN lineup that has some K issues. There are plenty of SP options to look into today/tonight.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Anthony Santander, Ryan O’Hearn
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs.
MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton
4-star plays: Edouard Julien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against RHPs.
Texas Rangers (-178) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Rangers – Andrew Heaney
Nationals – Jake Irvin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. This game is moving up in terms of game total so that means we are going to see extremely high ownership on the Rangers. Seager is absolutely locked in at the plate while Jankowski has been hot over the last week. I am always using Lane Thomas against LHPs but he has let us down a bit recently, despite going 9 for his last 30 across the last 7 games. Heaney is interesting but we might not have to go there.
TEX 5-star plays: Corey Seager
4-star plays: Adolis Garcia, Travis Jankowski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 against RHPs.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario, Lane Thomas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against LHPs.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Ranger Suarez
Marlins – Braxton Garrett
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. We have seen this game move down to a 7.5 total since I began putting this article together. Bohm is swinging it the best of any PHI bat and he has had the most success against Garrett of any PHI bat. Things seem to line up well for the PHI to surprise here. I think Suarez is a better SP than Garrett while the PHI lineup is certainly better than MIA’s so I guess that means I’m on the PHI side here. With that being said, I absolutely love both SPs overall.
PHI 5-star plays: Alec Bohm
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Edmundo Sosa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 against LHPs.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jorge Soler, Garrett Cooper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 against LHPs.
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers (-130)
Pitchers:
Reds – Luke Weaver
Brewers – Colin Rea
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total 0f 9.5. The Milwaukee bats woke up a bit against an LHP last night but overall, they still aren’t great. Weaver is a guy that MIL could pound around for 4-5 innings of action. I also think the Reds are very much in play with their upside. Rea has surprised us in previous starts but he’s also been beaten up in some starts. Yelich is going to be one of my favorite plays on the slate.
CIN 5-star plays: Elly De La Cruz
4-star plays: Jake Fraley, Joey Votto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich
4-star plays: Raimel Tapia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 against RHPs.
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Atlanta Braves (-155) @ Tampa Bay Rays
Pitchers:
Braves – Spencer Strider
Rays – Taj Bradley
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We get another game that has moved down since I began this article. The total currently sits at 8, which I think makes more sense than the 8.5. Strider is obviously elite but he does have some wrinkles while Bradley flashes elite upside but he has struggled the last couple of starts. I do think we see a lot of Ks between the two teams today but there’s potential for a few HRs as well.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Sean Murphy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .216 against RHPs.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Wander Franco, Brandon Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .194 against RHPs.
Toronto Blue Jays (-220) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Kevin Gausman
Tigers – Matt Manning
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. Gausman is going to be SUPER popular against this DET squad. He struck out 11 against them earlier this season and his teammates should put up some runs against Manning. Bichette just keeps quietly hitting and getting it done. The Blue Jays offense is potent but they’ve been somewhat underwhelming during the first half of the season. I’m not going to over think this one, all about TOR.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette
4-star plays: George Springer, Matt Chapman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Matt Vierling
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 against RHPs.
Chicago Cubs @ New York Yankees (-190)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Drew Smyly
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Bellinger is hot at the plate so I am tempted to bump him to a 5-Star but it’s tough to pick on Cole. Swanson has had success against Cole but he isn’t 100% right now and might not even be in the lineup. I will be honest, I was shocked to see that the Yankees have such a strong ISO against LHPs because the overall lineup just hasn’t been great for much of the season. Rizzo could be a sneaky addition to the guys below.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .142 against RHPs.
NYY 5-star plays: Harrison Bader
4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Anthony Volpe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .194 against LHPs.
St Louis Cardinals (-130) @ Chicago White Sox
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Miles Mikolas
White Sox – Touki Toussaint
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. The Cardinals have been heating up offensively, they just need the pitching staff to join them. Nolan Arenado is absolutely scorching at the plate from a power standpoint, slugging a ridiculous .926 over the last week. I think it’s safe to say he’s the front runner for my Dong call. Toussaint is stretched out enough to be a traditional starter for the White Sox. Mikolas has been ok on the road but his recent form is very, rough.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Lars Nootbar, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against RHPs.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs.
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-120)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Mitch Keller
D’Backs – Kyle Nelson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. it looks like the D’Backs are going to roll with a bullpen game but there’s always a possibility they announce a true long-reliever. That makes it tough to trust PIT bats in this match-up. Keller has been great and could dominate in this spot as the D’Backs offense has been pretty cold over the last week, especially if you take out last night’s Gurriel Jr explosion. I think I prefer mini-stacks in this game.
PIT 5-star plays: Nick Gonzales
4-star plays: Jack Suwinski, Connor Joe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 against LHPs.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Corbin Carroll
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against RHPs.
Oakland Athletics @ Boston Red Sox (-225)
Pitchers:
A’s – Paul Blackburn
Red Sox – James Paxton
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Paxton might be the chalkiest SP on the day as he gets such a weak lineup, especially with Ruiz being on the IL. Aledmys has had strong success against Paxton while Jordan is the hottest OAK bat over the last week. Blackburn has thrown the ball pretty well this season but he faces a BOS lineup that has a bunch of guys swinging it extremely well in July. Boston should be a favorite stack of the field against today.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Aledmys Diaz, Jordan Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 against LHPs.
BOS 5-star plays: Jarren Duran
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Justin Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs.
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros (-135)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Bryan Woo
Astros – Framber Valdez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Framber returning after not throwing for nearly 2 weeks is both intriguing and worrisome. He gets a great match-up to return to as the K upside is through the roof but how sharp will he be? Woo has been great since his atrocious MLB debut and the overall HOU lineup isn’t something to be afraid of. The total in this game has moved down to 7 at this point. Tucker could be up for a big day against Woo, as LHBs have given him troubles.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JP Crawford, Tom Murphy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against LHPs.
HOU 5-star plays: Kyle Tucker
4-star plays: Corey Julks
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs.
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Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (-220)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Connor Seabold
Giants – Ryan Walker
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We should be seeing a long-reliever or a bullpen game out of the Giants, which is annoying because I love using SPs against Colorado. I want to be about the Giants but a majority of the projected lineup has been ice cold in July. The hottest hitter, Flores, won’t be in the lineup I do not think so then we have to rely on guys who are like 1 for their last 14 or 15 etc.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jurickson Profar, Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 against RHPs.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Blake Sabol, JD Davis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against RHPs.
Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians (-170)
Pitchers:
Royals – Brady Singer
Guardians – Gavin Williams
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I hate that I have so much interest in CLE considering they are an offense with very little actual power and we need power for our main stacks (5 man on DK). Gavin Williams has looked strong at times and he dominated this KC squad in his 2nd start at the MLB level. Singer has looked better of late so maybe he’s in play against a weak CLE lineup but I am just not sure. This game does have some potential weather issues.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Maikel Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 against RHPs.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Andres Gimenez, Steven Kwan
GPP Note: Team ISO of .119 against RHPs.
New York Mets @ San Diego Padres (-170)
Pitchers:
Mets – David Peterson
Padres – Blake Snell
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I was shocked to see that a few Mets bats have had strong history against Snell. Snell has been dominant over his last handful of starts, racking up Ks. The Mets bats have awoken a bit so this is a very interesting game. Peterson hasn’t been good this season and SD has a ton of upside against LHPs. I do think we see a few HRs hit in this game so I will definitely have a game stack somewhere.
NYM 5-star plays: Francisco Alvarez
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against LHPs.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis, Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 against LHPs.
Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-145)
Pitchers:
Angels – Reid Detmers
Dodgers – Michael Grove
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Grove has been absolutely dominated by LHBs so far in 2023 and that’s an interesting situation given that Ohtani and Moniak could put up multiple HRs in this spot. Detmers has been throwing the ball really freaking well over the last few weeks but can we trust him against a team like the Dodgers? Mookie has been absolutely locked in while JD and Will have been providing some power around him.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Mickey Moniak
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 against RHPs.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Will Smith
GPP Note: Team ISO of .232 against LHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Texas Rangers
- Boston Red Sox
- Cincinnati Reds
MLB Dinger of the Day – Nolan Arenado, Cardinals
May 8, 2022; San Francisco, California, USA; St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado (28) swings and misses for strike three, the final out against the San Francisco Giants during the ninth inning at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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