Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. It’s Friday, and we get a few early games followed by a 12-game main slate. We get some notable matchups up and down the card and minimal weather concerns for the most part, so this ought to be a good day to kickstart the weekend. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We get plenty of options today, including a few games with studs facing off. While most of the games will have average-ish (or worse) matchups for the starters, there are a few sprinkled around who are in a good spot, as well as a handful that have KSCOREs north of 500, such as Darvish and Abbott. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early games
Atlanta Braves at Tampa Bay Rays
We’ll kick things off with the early games, starting with the Braves and Rays. Morton and Glasnow will get the start here, along with an 8.5 total. Vegas has this one split down the middle, and it really could go either way as both squads will bring quality bats and a quality starter. If you can’t pick a side, perhaps starting the day off with some hedging is in order.
Braves 4.5 star plays – Acuna
Braves 4 star plays – Olson, Albies/Riley/Murphy/Ozuna
GPP note – There’s plenty of upside on both sides of this matchup, making it a great spot to hedge if you can’t decide which side you want to be heavier on.
Rays 4.5 star plays – Arozarena/Franco
Rays 4 star plays – Diaz, Lowe, Siri
GPP note – This isn’t a bad hedge spot either, as Morton carries plenty of upside for his salary and we know the Rays can go off on any given day.
Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers
Next up we have the Blue Jays and Rigers, with Manoah and Faedo on the mound. A 9.0 total, Vegas likes the visitors here, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see Detroit keep pace (at least for a while).
Blue Jays 5 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Bichette/Merrifield, Belt
GPP note – Faedo allows power to both sides, but more to righties, so don’t worry too much about hand matchup here.
Tigers 4 star plays – Baez/Carpenter
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Torkelson/McKinstry/Cabrera
GPP note – Manoah has been having issues for a while now, so feel free to take some swings at him here with the budget bomber crew.
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins
The Phillies and Marlins are up next, as Wheeler and Alcantara will square off. We drop down to a 7.5 total with the visitors getting a slight nod, and for the most part I would agree with that. Alcantara can be tough, but he’s not quite up to where we have been used to seeing him.
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper/Schwarber
Phillies 3.5 star plays – Castellanos/Turner
GPP note – Alcantara hasn’t been dominant, but mostly has been stingy to both sides, making this a spot best suited for smaller stacks.
Marlins 4 star plays – Chishom/Arraez, De La Cruz
Marlins 3.5 star plays – Soler/Cooper
GPP note – Wheeler is a tough target, but some contrarian one-offs or mini-stacks could be useful.
Main slate
Chicago Cubs at New York Yankees
Switching over to the main slate, we’ll start with the Cubs and Yankees. Tallon and Rodon will get the start here, and with them, an 8.5 total. Rodon will be back in action, so as usual, it’s not a bad idea to hedge with him as one side or the other has a good chance of doing some damage here as he makes his return.
Cubs 4 star plays – Happ
Cubs 3.5 star plays – Suzuki/Morel/Hoerner
GPP note – It’s hard to know what to expect as we haven’t seen Rodon basically all season, so you can take one side or the other or hedge.
Yankees 4.5 star plays – Rizzo/McKinney
Yankees 3.5 star plays – Torres/Stanton
GPP note – A good spot overall, though lefties have a big statcast advantage against Taillon.
Texas Rangers at Washington Nationals
Bradford and the Rangers will take on Williams and the Nationals next, and we get a juicy 10.0 total for this one. Unfortunately, we also have some potential weather concerns, so be sure to keep an eye on the skies so these temping bats won’t burn any lineups if mother nature decides to not let up.
Rangers 5 star plays – Seager
Rangers 4 star plays – Heim/Lowe, Semien
GPP note – Williams allows plenty of contact and power to both sides and carries a low strikeout rate, so you can go after him however you’d like.
Nationals 4.5 star plays – Thomas/Candelario
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Menses, Call
GPP note – Bradford allows good power to righties and some of these bats are fairly inexpensive for the total Vegas is giving them.
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Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians
Next up we’ll have Lynch and my Royals taking on Civale and the Guardians. The 8.0 total isn’t overly exciting, but considering that KC is barely above a 3.0 total, there is at least one side of this game that could be useful for fantasy purposes.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Perez/Witt
GPP note – Some contrarian bats could be useful, but there’s not a whole lot to love in this matchup otherwise.
Guardians 5 star plays – Ramirez
Guardians 4 star plays – Rosario/Bell/Naylor
GPP note – Lynch comes in with a low strikeout rate and is allowing good contact to both sies of the plate.
Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox
Moving right along, our next game is between the Athletics and the Red Sox. Medina and Walter get the start here, along with a juicy 10.5 total. All of the big-name bats from Boston will be popular, but there are also a lot of budget bats here, so don’t be afraid to get a little funky.
Athletics 4 star plays – Rooker
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Kemp
GPP note – This isn’t the most fun team to stack, but they do at least get a good matchup to start off with.
Red Sox 5 star plays – Devers
Red Sox 4 star plays – Yoshida, Turnr/Verdugo/Duran
GPP note – Medina is allowing good wOBA to both sides and a lot of power to righties.
Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros
Next up we’ll have Castillo and the Mariners facing Brown and the Astros. We drop down to a 7.5 total for this one, which seems fair considering we have two solid starters going at it. They’ll certainly get some attention for tournament use, but there are also some high-upside bats that might be worth looking at with reduced ownership in the field.
Mariners 4 star plays – Rodriguez, Kelenic
Mariners 3.5 star plays – Hernandez
GPP note – Brown can be tough but is allowing decent power to lefties on occasion.
Astros 4.5 star plays – Tucker
Astros 4 star plays – Altuve/Bregman
GPP note – Similar idea here as well, though Castillo is allowing some power to both sides.
Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins
Irvin and the Orioles will take on Ober and the Twins next, as we move up a run to an 8.5 total. I do feel like Vegas is being a little conservative here, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one crack the over without a ton of trouble.
Orioles 4.5 star plays – Santander/Rutschman
Orioles 3.5 star plays – Henderson
GPP note – Righties get the statcast advantage here, so if you decide to stack the O’s, don’t neglect them.
Twins 5 star plays – Buxton
Twins 4 star plays – Correa/Farmer
GPP note – Irvin is allowing a bunch of contact and power to righties, making this a solid spot to attack.
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
We get another game with two solid starters next, as Abbott and the Reds will take on Burnes and the Brewers. An 8.0 total is how Vegas sees this one going, though they do favor the home team. It’s hard to completely agree with that with how the Reds have been, but we’ll see if Burnes is up for the task.
Reds 4 star plays – De La Cruz/McLain/Votto
Reds 3.5 star plays – India/Fraley
GPP note – It’s a tough spot for these bats, but seeing as they can get hot in an instant, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to go contrarian or hedge.
Brewers 4 star plays – Contreras/Adames
Brewers 3.5 star plays – Yelich
GPP note – Abbott has been a stud, so contrarian stacks only.
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St Louis Cardinals at Chicago White Sox
Montgomery and the Cadinals will take on Cease and the White Sox next, as we get another modest 8.5 total. Personally, I like the under here, as I could see both pitchers navigating their opponent without allowing much damage.
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado
Cardinals 3.5 star plays – Nootbaar/Donovan, DeJong
GPP note – These bats face a potentially tough matchup, though Cease is allowing some power to lefties.
White Sox 4 star plays – Robert
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Jimenez/Vaughn/Anderson/Burger
GPP note – Montgomery has been pretty stingy but is allowing the occasional power to lefties.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks
We’ll head to our late games now, starting with the Pirates and Diamondbacks. Hill and Gallen get the start here, and we get another uninspiring 8.0 total. If Gallen does his thing, there won’t be a whole lot coming from the visitor’s side, but going contrarian is always an option.
Pirates 4 star plays – McCutchen/Reynolds
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Santana/Suwinski
GPP note – Attacking Gallen isn’t the most fun thing to do, but he is allowing some occasional power to both sides of the plate.
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Gurriel/Marte
Diamondbacks 3.5 star plays – Longoria
GPP note – These bats aren’t hitting lefties as well as they could be, though Hill is allowing some decent power to righties.
New York Mets at San Diego Padres
We get another two-stud game next, as Verlander and the Mets will take on Darvish and the Padres. If you enjoy hedging, this is certainly your game, as an argument could be made for any of the sides here.
Mets 4.5 star plays – Lindor/Alonso
Mets 3.5 star plays – Nimmo
GPP note – Plenty of good bats facing a solid starter, so hedging wouldn’t be a bad idea at all. Otherwise, Darvish is allowing some power to righties if you want to just go against him.
Padres 4.5 star plays – Soto/Tatis
Padres 3.5 star plays – Machado/Bogaerts
GPP note – Same as above.
Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers
We have our battle for Los Angeles next, as the Angels and Dodgers will face off. Canning and Gonsolin will lead the charge, and they get a 9.0 total to start with. It’s too bad Trout won’t be around for this one, but perhaps the other studs can put on a show to pay off their big salaries.
Angels 4.5 star plays – Ohtani
Angels 4 star plays – Moniak
GPP note – Gonsolin can hold his own but is allowing good xwOBA to lefties. I don’t know that full hedging would be the way to go, but some small stacks could work here.
Dodgers 4.5 star plays – Freeman/Betts
Dodgers 4 star plays – Muncy, Martinez/Smith
GPP note – Canning is allowing good power to both sides, so you can go at him from either side with stacks of any size.
Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants
We’ll wrap things up with the Rockies and Giants, with Gomber and Stripling on the hill. It’s too early for any Vegas insight, but I’d be surprised if Colorado gets a ton of love here. The Giants get a great matchup against Gomber and the bullpen, so we’ll see what they can do with it.
Rockies 4 star plays – McMahon, Bryant
Rockies 3.5 star plays – Cron
GPP note – Stripling is allowing moderate power to lefties, though not much else.
Giants 4.5 star plays – Davis
Giants 4 star plays – Bailey
GPP note – Gomber allows plenty of contact and power to both sides, so you can attack him just as you would do when he’s pitching at home. This is another spot where some budget bats have a solid matchup.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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