Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 7/5:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Pablo Lopez
- Josiah Gray
- Justin Steele
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Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins (-260)
Pitchers:
Royals – Alec Marsh
Twins – Pablo Lopez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Half of the Twins’ lineup has started to heat up over the last week and they definitely need to wake up in the second half. Lopez is a massive favorite but he has struggled at home this season. Despite KC being such a large dog, I think you can mini-stack KC and feel really good about it. I am considering Witt and Perez to go with the 2 guys below. I wouldn’t be shocked if Buxton goes on a tear to end the 1st half.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Maikel Garcia, Nick Pratto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 against RHPs.
MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Max Kepler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against RHPs.
Cincinnati Reds (-120) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Reds – Graham Ashcraft
Nationals – Josiah Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Call me crazy, but I just don’t see why this game has a 9.5 total. Ashcraft has been bad this season, there’s no doubt about that but he is coming off of a great performance against SD and this WSH squad is not good, at all. Gray is an All-Star (whether he deserved it or not is up for debate) and his reverse splits make it a very interesting match-up on paper. The Reds generally go pretty LH heavy in their platoon lineup but if they do that, doesn’t it play into Gray’s hands?
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tyler Stephenson, Spencer Steer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against RHPs.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario, Lane Thomas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .128 against RHPs.
St Louis Cardinals @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Steven Matz
Marlins – Bryan Hoeing
Rundown:
We are waiting on the official STL SP announcement along with the Vegas information. Hoeing has allowed more power to RHBs than LHBs so that’s a problem given that the 3 hottest hitters on STL are RH’d (two below plus Contreras). Matz has looked decent out of the pen and is stretched out enough to probably offer 80-85 pitches for STL. Segura has absolutely dominated Matz in previous meetings but he’s been bad this season.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against RHPs.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jean Segura, Jorge Soler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 against LHPs.
Chicago Cubs (-155) @ Milwaukee Brewers
Pitchers:
Cubs – Justin Steele
Brewers – Adrian Houser
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total 0f 8.5. We get my dream scenario at this point, Justin Steele (he’s so good, dammit) against the Milwaukee Brewers. Steele is going to be one of my highest owned plays on this slate and I’m prepared to be disappointed. Houser is intriguing to me as the Cubs lineup is pretty blah overall with just a couple of hotter hitters right now. The issue is that he doesn’t rack up Ks at all. If you wanted to one-off from MIL, Contreras is really interesting to me tonight.
CHC 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 against RHPs.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: William Contreras, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 against LHPs.
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Philadelphia Phillies @ Tampa Bay Rays (-120)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Taijuan Walker
Rays – Littell/Chirinos
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I’m a little shocked to see a 9 game total at first glance. I realize that TB has been an elite offense this season but Walker is generally hit harder by RHBs and the TB RHBs have been a little off of late. Chirinos is a difficult match-up for PHI as he’s been a reverse splits guy as well. I’m kind of glad this isn’t on the main slate because I feel like I’d be off of the bats and then the game erupts for 12+ runs.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos, Alec Bohm
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against RHPs.
TB 5-star plays: Luke Raley
4-star plays: Wander Franco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 against RHPs.
Oakland Athletics @ Detroit Tigers (-235)
Pitchers:
A’s – Ken Waldichuk
Tigers – Eduardo Rodriguez
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. Against LHPs, 7 of Rogers’ 12 hits have been HRs in 2023. I love the power upside at a generally weak DFS position. E-Rod was absolutely dominant to begin the 2023 season before going on the IL. He looked strong in his rehab start so I think he’s in a great spot but we may only see him for 80-ish pitches in his return. Rooker is the one A’s bat that could cause some problems.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brent Rooker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 against LHPs.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jake Rogers, Jake Marisnick
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against LHPs.
Baltimore Orioles (-120) @ New York Yankees
Pitchers:
Orioles – Dean Kremer
Yankees – Randy Vasquez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Kremer has allowed 7 HRs over his last 3 starts so he’s probably somebody we want to avoid while getting some power bats against him. Vasquez has looked very solid in his 2 MLB starts while putting up strong minor league numbers as well. I actually think he’s a sneaky option as the Orioles offense has looked a little stale over the last 10-14 days. LeMahieu has struggled much of the season but he has hit Kremer extremely well in previous meetings.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adam Frazier, Adley Rutschman
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .168 against RHPs.
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Giancarlo Stanton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against RHPs.
Toronto Blue Jays (-120) @ Chicago White Sox
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Jose Berrios
White Sox – Lance Lynn
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Coming into this one, over the last week, the White Sox lineup has been better than the Blue Jays. I still trust the Blue Jays more tonight but it’s close. Berrios hasn’t fared well against a chunk of this CWS roster but I like the way he has thrown the ball. He hasn’t been as sharp on the road so there’s some worries with this spot. Lynn just hasn’t been good and I can’t use him against TOR. There is some potential weather here.
TOR 5-star plays: George Springer
4-star plays: Brandon Belt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs.
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New York Mets (EVEN) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Mets – Kodai Senga
D’Backs – Tommy Henry
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Senga was moved to today, so he receives an extra day of rest. I like the upside he offers but the match-up is really dangerous for him. His walks and HRs could come into play against an electric ARI squad. Henry has been decent at home but I just don’t think I can use him against the Mets. I keep waiting for the Mets to wake up and explode. There might not be a hotter hitter in baseball than Tommy Pham.
NYM 5-star plays: Tommy Pham
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Brandon Nimmo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Corbin Carroll, Jake McCarthy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 against RHPs.
Texas Rangers (EVEN) @ Boston Red Sox
Pitchers:
Rangers – Jon Gray
Red Sox – Brayan Bello
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I am really stuck on this game. We get a couple of SPs that have won people money this season taking on teams that can explode, in a park that’s built for offense to happen. Gray hasn’t been sharp recently while Bello has looked really good. Based on recent performances, I think I like the Red Sox more than the Rangers. It was kind of painful to type that out. This is a game that I’m going to spend all day trying to break down for members.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Leody Taveras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 against RHPs.
BOS 5-star plays: Justin Turner
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against RHPs.
Colorado Rockies @ Houston Astros (-225)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Chase Anderson
Astros – JP France
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. France is a reverse splits guy who hasn’t been very good at home. With that being said, he gets such a great match-up that it’s difficult to ignore. I’m kind of glad this game is the only day game because HOU would be super popular. Kyle Tucker has been absolutely locked in over the last week to 10 days while Jose Abreu is making everybody forget about his first 2 months of the season.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ezequiel Tovar, Jurickson Profar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against RHPs.
HOU 5-star plays: Kyle Tucker
4-star plays: Corey Julks, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs.
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Seattle Mariners @ San Francisco Giants (-170)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Tommy Milone
Giants – Alex Cobb
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. We get to use one of my favorite one-offs against LHPs tonight! I can’t stop playing Austin Slater against LHPs, even if I know he’s getting just 2 ABs, I just keep jamming him in. Cobb looked decent in his return from the IL and the Mariners strike out a TON overall. Milone has been ok at AAA this season and now gets to start against a team that struggles a lot against LHPs.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Ford, JP Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Slater, Patrick Bailey
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 against LHPs.
Atlanta Braves (-165) @ Cleveland Guardians
Pitchers:
Braves – Michael Soroka
Guardians – Cal Quantrill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. I want to believe that Soroka is going to be dominant but the Guardians don’t strike out a whole lot. He has been hit more by RHBs but LHBs have flashed the power against him. He gets a bit of a break in the power department because CLE has very little of it. Quantrill feels like somebody that’s going to be done after 3 innings tonight with this ATL offense just pummeling him.
ATL 5-star plays: Matt Olson, Michael Harris
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuna Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .218 against RHPs.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Naylor, Steven Kwan
GPP Note: Team ISO of .120 against RHPs.
Los Angeles Angels @ San Diego Padres (-178)
Pitchers:
Angels – Patrick Sandoval
Padres – Seth Lugo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I have Ohtani listed below but I’m not sure that he plays today. If he is out of the lineup, joining Trout and Rendon, Lugo becomes a very solid play against a rather weak LAA lineup. I expect the Padres to be pretty popular from a stacking standpoint and I can’t argue against it. I’m still trying to understand the DFA’ing of Nelson Cruz when a lot of the bench bats for the Padres are LHBs but what do I know?
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mickey Moniak, Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 against RHPs.
SD 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 against LHPs.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-260)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Osvaldo Bido
Dodgers – Bobby Miller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I do think Miller sees a ton of ownership, which I understand given how large of a favorite he is. At the same time, I can see PIT being a fairly popular mini-stack option with the way a few of them have been swinging the bat. Bido hasn’t been bad but he seems to be getting lucky overall as he has allowed plenty of baserunners. If Tommy Pham isn’t the hottest hitter in the majors, it’s because Mookie Betts is hotter.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Gonzales, Jack Suwinski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against RHPs.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .194 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Atlanta Braves
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Minnesota Twins
MLB Dinger of the Day – Matt Olson, Braves
Jul 4, 2022; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves right fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. (13) runs the bases against the St. Louis Cardinals during the fourth inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
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