Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 7/4:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Kenta Maeda
- Tarik Skubal
- Shohei Ohtani
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Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins (-195)
Pitchers:
Royals – Zack Greinke
Twins – Kenta Maeda
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Maeda has looked solid in his two starts since returning from the IL. He held the hot hitting ATL lineup to just 2 runs over 5 innings. The issue I have is that he’s been stopped at 5 innings in both starts and topped out at 83 pitches in the first one. I would think he gets extended at some point. He gets a great match-up against a weak KC lineup. Greinke seems to always do just enough but I really like the history for Buxton.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Drew Waters, Maikel Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 against RHPs.
MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton
4-star plays: Carlos Correa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against RHPs.
Cincinnati Reds (-115) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Reds – Brett Kennedy
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I really wish this game was part of the slates instead of being an island, morning game. We should see plenty of offense in this one so neither SP is of interest to me. Kennedy hasn’t pitched in the majors in about 5 seasons but he was lit up the last time he made starts. Corbin is certainly gas-can worthy so the Reds could definitely explode in this one.
CIN 5-star plays: Matt McLain
4-star plays: Tyler Stephenson, Nick Senzel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against LHPs.
WSH 5-star plays: Lane Thomas
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario, Dominic Smith
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 against RHPs.
St Louis Cardinals @ Miami Marlins (-165)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Adam Wainwright
Marlins – Jesus Luzardo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. My guy Luzardo against a struggling STL squad sounds like a great spot to attack! I do have worries as he’s capable of hitting a wall and having one of those head scratching innings. We know STL has a few guys who have traditionally mashed LHPs. Wainwright has been down right horrendous this season but could he right the ship a bit against a weak MIA lineup? I’m not sure he’s got anything left but we should see his best today, I believe.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against LHPs.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper, Joey Wendle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 against RHPs.
Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers (-125)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
Brewers – Wade Miley
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total 0f 9. I really am lost on how to attack this game. I don’t trust either offense, basically ever at this point. The issue is that we get two SPs that I love to pick on with bats. Miley has been decent so maybe he’s in consideration today but I am not using Hendricks any time soon. He was strong against the Giants but he lacks K upside at this point. I hate to admit it, but I might have to stack the Brewers.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Amaya, Nick Madrigal
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jesse Winker, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs.
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Philadelphia Phillies @ Tampa Bay Rays (-140)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Rays – Zach Eflin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. The Phillies have some very interesting BvP history against Eflin so color me intrigued by their upside. The Rays haven’t been AS potent as they were in April but they still have power and Nola hasn’t been great on the road. I am starting to think the total in this one is a little too low but the pitching match-up is strong so both guys are in consideration at this point.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against RHPs.
TB 5-star plays: Luke Raley
4-star plays: Josh Lowe, Yandy Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 against RHPs.
Oakland Athletics @ Detroit Tigers (-170)
Pitchers:
A’s – JP Sears
Tigers – Tarik Skubal
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. Sears has allowed 19 HRs this season, which feels like a lot considering he’s thrown just 87.1 innings on the season. Rogers might end up my as one of my favorite one-offs at a position I generally hate having to decide on (catcher). Skubal is making his season debut after making 5 minor league appearances and totaling 14.2 innings. I would guess he’s not much more than a 70-75 pitch guy so that does limit his upside.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brent Rooker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 against LHPs.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jake Rogers, Jake Marisnick
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against LHPs.
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees (-120)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Kyle Gibson
Yankees – Clarke Schmidt
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Volpe has been on an absolute tear over the last 2 weeks and I am not jumping off now. Donaldson has 3 HRs against Gibson in just 22 PAs so he feels like a sneaky GPP option. I want to use BAL LHBs against Schmidt in this ballpark. Adley feels like the obvious play but I think it’s Santander that does the damage for BAL today. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the total for this one push to 9.5+ at this point.
BAL 5-star plays: Anthony Santander
4-star plays: Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .166 against RHPs.
NYY 5-star plays: Anthony Volpe
4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Jake Bauers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against RHPs.
Toronto Blue Jays (-120) @ Chicago White Sox
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Chris Bassitt
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Since starting this article, the total in this game has moved to 8.5, which is pretty telling given the two SPs on the mound. Bassitt hasn’t been great away from home but the overall CWS lineup is pretty blah while Giolito has been solid at home but the TOR lineup isn’t a huge source of strikeouts. Kirk has crushed Giolito in their previous match-ups, which is interesting to see as I think most will overlook him.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette
4-star plays: George Springer, Alejandro Kirk
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs.
CWS 5-star plays: Luis Robert
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs.
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New York Mets (-120) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Mets – Kodai Senga
D’Backs – Zach Davies
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The D’Backs offense has cooled off recently so that makes Senga a really interesting option for us. He is extremely volatile and he hasn’t been great on the road but the upside is there and that’s what we look for in our GPP builds. The Mets offense is all over the place but they line up to be in a great spot against Davies based on some previous BvP history, along with the fact that Davies just isn’t all that good.
NYM 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Brandon Nimmo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Gabriel Moreno, Jake McCarthy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 against RHPs.
Texas Rangers (-125) @ Boston Red Sox
Pitchers:
Rangers – Dane Dunning
Red Sox – Brennan Bernardino
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. This game has some massive weather issues and it looks like BOS is going with a bullpen game. Dunning is coming off of an elite performance but I would imagine he takes a step back today. Part of me really hopes this game ends up happening because we could see plenty of offense. Both teams have some guys swinging it really well right now and TEX has guys that can crush LHPs (but it’s a bullpen game at first glance).
TEX 5-star plays: Ezequiel Duran
4-star plays: Josh Jung, Leody Taveras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 against LHPs.
BOS 5-star plays: Alex Verdugo
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against RHPs.
Colorado Rockies @ Houston Astros (-195)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
Astros – Brandon Bielak
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I am not sure if this feels like a trap or what but the Astros feel like they are in a great spot. Tucker is going to be one of my favorite plays on the day, even in an LvL spot as he’s 14 for his last 28 with 13 RBI. Bielak should be a solid option against a struggling COL squad that has a team ISO of just .075 over the last week. Tovar is a guy that I think makes a ton of sense as a one-off.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ezequiel Tovar, Jurickson Profar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against RHPs.
HOU 5-star plays: Kyle Tucker
4-star plays: Mauricio Dubon, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against LHPs.
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Seattle Mariners @ San Francisco Giants (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Logan Gilbert
Giants – Keaton Winn
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. It’s an afternoon game in SF so there could be some better hitting performances but I do like both SPs in this one. Winn is an under the radar guy who might not have extreme upside but the SEA lineup is pretty blah and they just struck out a TON against Webb last night. Gilbert is very interesting to me as the Giants lineup has hit the struggle bus recently, with only Sabol doing much for damage.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, JP Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Blake Sabol, Patrick Bailey
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against RHPs.
Atlanta Braves (-130) @ Cleveland Guardians
Pitchers:
Braves – Kolby Allard
Guardians – Shane Bieber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Allard came out of nowhere (I had no idea he was back in the Braves organization) and dominated the Twins last time out. This is a little different match-up as the Guardians don’t strike out anywhere near as much as the Twins but they also don’t have the same kind of power. Bieber just isn’t the same but he has flashed upside recently. With that being said, there’s a 0% chance I am willing to take him against this ATL offense. Give me the Braves yet again.
ATL 5-star plays: Matt Olson, Michael Harris
4-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Ronald Acuna Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .219 against RHPs.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 against LHPs.
Los Angeles Angels @ San Diego Padres (-130)
Pitchers:
Angels – Shohei Ohtani
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. The Angels might be without Trout after he left last night’s game. We don’t get to use Ohtani as a hitter, so that really hurts the Angels as a stack option. Moustakas is 4 for 10 with 3 HR against Musgrove, so that’s interesting. I don’t have any interest in stacking against Ohtani but I might be in the minority in saying that I do like some SD mini-stacks (2 man on DK).
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Moustakas, Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .193 against RHPs.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-235)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Luis Ortiz
Dodgers – Emmet Sheehan
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I am a huge fan of the Dodgers tonight as a few of their LHBs are heating up and Muncy HR’d last night (we know that he gets hot in a hurry from a power standpoint). Sheehan has been really solid at the MLB level but his minor league K numbers haven’t translated to the majors yet. A few of the PIT bats are rolling right now so I don’t think Sheehan is a lock tonight.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Gonzales, Jack Suwinski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against RHPs.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman, David Peralta
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, Max Muncy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .193 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Atlanta Braves
- Toronto Blue Jays
MLB Dinger of the Day – Anthony Santander, Orioles
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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