Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. It’s Friday and we’re back to the good stuff today, as a big 14-game slate awaits us this evening. We even have a lone showdown game before the main event, if you just can’t wait that extra 25 minutes for your first contests to start. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We get a nice wide range of pitching options today, with everything from a handful of studs with 500+ KSCOREs and sub-3.0 SIERAs to some gas cans with high carnage ratings and SIERAs as high as almost 6.50 and plenty in between. For cash games, somebody like Scherzer or Gausman might be a good way to go. There are some other studs to look at for tournament use, and even some budget options like Crawford who could return more than enough value for us. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early game
Detroit Tigers at Miami Marlins
We’ll kick things off with our showdown game between the Tigers and Marlins, with Olson and Garrett on the mound. We get a rather uninspiring 7.5 total, which considering the Tigers’ situation, isn’t very surprising. We’ll see how it goes, but unless you just really enjoy showdowns, perhaps it may be best to just wait for the main slate.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Greene, Tokelson/Baez
GPP note – Things don’t look very good here: Garrett can hold his own, Vegas isn’t giving these guys much love, and they just had to travel across the country after playing a double-header. Garrett does at least allow some power to both sides, but like yesterday, cherry picking the right bat or two is probably the answer instead of taking big contrarian stacks.
Marlins 4.5 star plays – Arraez
Marlins 4 star plays – Chisholm, Soler/De La Cruz
GPP note – Olson allows good power to both sides and above-average x/wOBA to lefties, so both sides are in play here.
Main slate
New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
We’ll begin the main slate with the Yankees and Orioles, as Cole and Rodriguez will face off with an 8.5 total. There are some potential weather concerns here, so be sure to keep an eye on things as you normally would.
Yankees 4 star plays – Stanton/Rizzo, Torres
Yankees 3.5 star plays – Bauers
GPP note – It’s hard to know what we’ll get from Rodriguez, but he has shown some upside, so it might be worth hedging with him as a budget SP2.
Orioles 4 star plays – Santander/Rutschman
Orioles 3.5 star plays – Mountcastle/Henderson, Frazier
GPP note – Cole is seldom a fun target to attack, but with the upside these bats have, it’s not a terrible idea to go contrarian and/or hedge.
Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates
Next up we’ll have the Phillies and Pirates, with Wheeler and Keller on the mound. We get another 8.5 total with the same (or slightly worse) weather concerns, so we will want to remain vigilant as we approach lock.
Phillies 4.5 star plays – Harper, Schwarber
Phillies 3.5 star plays – Stott, Castellanos/Turner
GPP note – A better spot than what Keller’s salary might indicate, the lefties profile quite well against him and I could see some of these bats having a solid day.
Pirates 4 star plays – Suwinski, McCutchen/Reynolds
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Davis
GPP note – Tough spot for these bats, though Wheeler does allow the occasional power to lefties.
Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays
Giolito and the Angels will take on Gausman and the Blue Jays next, along with yet another 8.5 total. This will be a tough one for the Angels’ offense after that double-header yesterday, so I could see this one cruising below the under without too much fuss.
Angels 4.5 star plays – Ohtani
Angels 3.5 star plays – Moniak/Moustakas
GPP note – Same issue as the Tigers, and Gausman can certainly rack up some strikeouts. Be careful with the contrarian plays here, aside from Ohtani at least.
Blue Jays 4.5 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Chapman/Merrifield/Belt
GPP note – Giolito is allowing good power to both sides of the plate but does carry some upside himself, so this wouldn’t be a bad spot to hedge.
Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox
Our next game is between the Guardians and White Sox, with Curry and Toussaint as the starters. We get an appetizing 10.5 total for this game, but unfortunately, we also have some serious weather concerns to watch out for. There’s a decent chance that this one will get delayed (or worse), so hopefully it’s just the former.
Guardians 4.5 star plays – Ramirez
Guardians 4 star plays – Naylor/Gimenez, Bell
GPP note – Toussaint allows good contact and power to lefties but has been pretty strict to righties, so it may be best to go the traditional route here.
White Sox 4 star plays – Robert
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Anderson/Benintendi, Vaughn/Burger
GPP note – Righties are getting some good power out of Curry, so it might not be a bad idea to try some RHB stacks here.
Watching the weather is half the battle when it comes to MLB DFS. The DFS Army Weather Station has you covered, from games that have delay and postponement potential to games that could have significant winds that will play a role in selecting a team to stack or a pitcher to use.
Washington Nationals at New York Mets
Next up we’ll have the Nationals and Mets, with Gore and Scherzer on the hill. We return to an 8.5 total, but at least this time we don’t have any weather concerns at hand. It is a Scherzer game though, and there’s always a decent chance that something silly will happen involving him.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Abrams/Candelario/Meneses
GPP note – Tough spot against Max, but one can always go contrarian since he does allow power to both sides with all the heat he throws.
Mets 5 star plays – Lindor/Alonso
Mets 4 star plays – Marte, Nimmo/Pham
GPP note – Great spot for the righties as Gore is allowing plenty of contact and power to them. He’s also allowing moderate xwOBA to lefties, so you can try a couple of them, too.
Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves
Houser and the Brewers will take on Chirinos and the Braves next, and we get a 10.0 total for this one. Vegas likes the home team here, as will probably most people, so don’t forget to grab a few shares of the other side since we could see some back-and-forth action here.
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Adames
GPP note – Chirinos allows all sorts of contact and power to both sides of the plate, so if you go here, hand matchup won’t matter too much.
Braves 5 star plays – Acuna
Braves 4 star plays – Olson/Riley/Albies/Murphy
GPP note – Solid spot for these bats as well, though you can expect them to be extra chalky with such a high implied total.
Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals
Moving right along, we’ll have Gray and the Twins taking on Singer and my Royals in our next matchup, with a healthy 9.5 total. The visitors get the nod from Vegas for this one, and unless Gray just absolutely implodes, I don’t know that KC will have a whole lot to keep pace.
Twins 4.5 star plays – Julien, Buxton/Correa
Twins 4 star plays – Kepler
GPP note – Singer allows decent power to both sides and generally carries a below-average strikeout rate, but beware of the random gem he throws.
Royals 4 star plays – Witt/Perez
Royals 3.5 star plays – Melendez
GPP note – Gray doesn’t allow a whole lot of power but he is allowing some xwOBA to righties, so some bats are worth a look here.
Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros
We get a game with studs sprinkled around on both sides next, as McClanahan and the Rays will take on Javier and the Astros. The decent starting pitching is keeping this total relatively low at an 8.5, which just sounds like a good place to do a little bit of hedging, in case one of them has a bad start and the opposing team is able to pounce on them.
Rays 4.5 star plays – Arozarena/Franco
Rays 4 star plays – Lowe, Siri
GPP note – Javier is allowing good contact and power to both sides, so there is plenty of upside in this matchup.
Astros 4 star plays – Bregman/Altuve, Alvarez
Astros 3.5 star plays – Tucker
GPP note – Not a great spot against McClanahan, but he does allow moderate power to righties on occasion.
Chicago Cubs at St Louis Cardinals
We’ll get another game in a rivalry series next, as the Cubs and Cardinals will square off with Smyly and Montgomery on the mound. Though there’s not currently any Vegas insight, it’s hard not to like to home team here, as they look to have the advantage on all fronts.
Cubs 4 star plays – Swanson/Happ/Suzuki
Cubs 3.5 star plays – Bellinger/Hoerner
GPP note – Montgomery has done a good job mitigating power to both sides, so smaller stacks might be best here.
Cardinals 5 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado
Cardinals 4 star plays – DeJong/Walker, Carlson
GPP note – Smyly is a regular punching bag and he allows good contact and power to both sides of the plate, so you can go after him however you’d like to.
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Oakland Athletics at Colorado Rockies
It’s chalky Coors time next, as Sears and the Athletics will take on Freeland and the Rockies. There’s no Vegas insight here, though seeing that it’s Coors, I think we all know what to expect.
Athletics 4.5 star plays – Rooker
Athletics 4 star plays – Laureano
GPP note – Cheap bats at Coors against a gas can – yay!
Rockies 4.5 star plays – Cron/Profar, ryant
Rockies 4 star plays – Tovar/Diaz
GPP note – Sears allows power to both sides, but lefties have been getting more out of him recently.
Late games
Texas Rangers at San Diego Padres
We’ll head to the late games next, starting with the Rangers and Padres. Dunning and Musgrove will get the start here, along with a shared slate-low total of 8.0. My gut tells me that this total will go up a little bit throughout the day, as it does seem a little low considering all the firepower these offenses possess, even if Seager will be sitting out.
Rangers 4 star plays – Semien/Lowe
Rangers 3.5 star plays – Jankowski/Garcia/Garver
GPP note – Tough spot against Musgrove, though a lot of these bats are hitting righties for some power, making contrarian stacks a viable option.
Padres 5 star plays – Soto/Tatis
Padres 4 star plays – Machado, Bogaerts/Grisham
GPP note – Lefties get a lot of contact and power out of Dunning, though with such low strikeout upside, it would be worth going at him from both sides.
Seattle Mariners at Arizona Diamondbacks
Gilbert and the Mariners will take on Henry and the Diamondbacks next, along with a 9.0 total. This total feels a bit more reasonable, though I would not be surprised if we see the over since the home team does offer reasonable upside against Gilbert, should he not bring his A-game to handle them swiftly.
Mariners 4.5 star plays – Rodriguez/Hernandez
Mariners 4 star plays – Suarez
GPP note – Lefties have the power advantage against Henry, so don’t be afraid to grab some LvL bats.
Diamondbacks 4.5 star plays – Carroll
Diamondbacks 3.5 star plays – Marte, Walker/Gurriel/Perdomo
GPP note – Gilbert can be a tough target but he is allowing good power to both sides of the plate, so contrarian stacks are perfectly fine here.
Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers
Next up we’ll have Williamson and the Reds set to take on Miller and the Dodgers. We get a healthy 9.5 total for this one, with the home team as the heavy favorites. That’s fine and all, but I’m not sure that I agree with the total that they’re giving Cincy. Miller can certainly hold his own, but he’s facing a very potent offense, and he too will need to bring his A-game to deal with them.
Reds 4 star plays – De La Cruz, Votto/McLain
Reds 3.5 star plays – Fraley, India
GPP note – Miller can be tough and Vegas isn’t giving these guys much love, but he does allow some power and we know that this offense can run up the score, so going contrarian and/or hedging would probably be a good idea.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Betts/Freeman
Dodgers 4 star plays – Martinez/Smith
GPP note – Solid spot for these bats, as Williamson is allowing good power to righties and above-average xwOBA to both sides of the plate.
Boston Red Sox at San Francisco Giants
And finally, we’ll wrap things up with the Red Sox and Giants, as Crawford and Webb will get the start. We get the other half of the shared slate-low 8.0 total for this game, with the home team getting the Vegas advantage. I think that it’s going to come down to how Crawford performs and whether or not San Francisco can take advantage of the matchup, as on paper, they’re certainly in a spot to do some damage. As for Boston, they get a tough matchup with Webb, but there’s more than enough upside in this offense to take some swings at them.
Red Sox 4.5 star plays – Devers
Red Sox 4 star plays – Yoshida/Duran, Turner/Verdugo
GPP note – Not the best spot against Webb, but there’s enough power upside here to warrant contrarian stacks and/or some hedging.
Giants 4.5 star plays – Pederson/Conforto
Giants 3.5 star plays – Davis/Yastrzemski
GPP note – There is some power and strikeout upside here, making this a good spot to hedge for a budget SP2.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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Jul 26, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies left fielder Jake Cave (44) gets doused with water and candy by second baseman Bryson Stott (5) and center fielder Brandon Marsh (16) after win against the Baltimore Orioles at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
