Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. It’s Thursday, and we are greeted with one of the smallest slates we’ll see until we get to the playoffs. A single early game is followed by a trio that will make up the main slate, so if you were hoping for a larger one, you’ll have to wait another day. Either way, there’s still plenty to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
With so few games today, there aren’t a whole lot of options to pick from. Fortunately, we do have a solid looking cash game pitcher in Senga, should you decide you want to play cash games on such a short slate. For tournaments, you’ll have to either go contrarian or roll out one of the four pitchers that Vegas is not giving their blessing to. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early game
Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers
The showdown game will start things off for as, as Ohtani and the Angels will take on Lorenzen and the Tigers in the first of a double-header. An 8.0 total, both pitchers can certainly hold their own here, so don’t be surprised to see this game turn into a bit of a dud for the offenses. Perhaps Ohtani will win the entire game all by himself?
Angels 4 star plays – Moniak
Angels 3.5 star plays – Moustakas, Thaiss
GPP note – Lorenzen seems to allow power in spurts, so cherry picking bats with higher power upside is probably the way to go here.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Greene
GPP note – It’s Ohtani and none of these guys have ever faced him before, so it may just come to finding the cheapest bat to punt with and hope for the best.
Main slate
Washington Nationals at New York Mets
We’ll switch over to our massive main slate now, starting with the Nationals and Mets. Gray and Senga get the start here, along with a 9.0 total. There are some possible weather concerns to watch out for, which would just make sense as we are lacking a bit in the slate size department today. Hopefully nothing comes from it and mother nature chooses another day to pick on us!
Nationals 4 star plays – Abrams/Meneses, Candelario
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Ruiz
GPP note – Tough spot against Senga, though righties do get some power out of him, so it may be worth trying to roll out some of them as a contrarian move on this tiny slate.
Mets 5 star plays – Lindor/Alonso
Mets 4 star plays – Nimmo, McNeil/Pham, Vogelbach
GPP note – On paper this is the best spot on the slate, so expect these guys to be mega chalk. Consider wrap-around stacks or other goofy approaches to help with that.
Watching the weather is half the battle when it comes to MLB DFS. The DFS Army Weather Station has you covered, from games that have delay and postponement potential to games that could have significant winds that will play a role in selecting a team to stack or a pitcher to use.
Chicago Cubs at St Louis Cardinals
Next up we have Steele and the Cubs taking on Mikolas and the Cardinals. A 9.0 total, Vegas has this game split down the middle. I could sure see it going either way, but if I need to make a stand, I think that Steele will have a solid outing and the Cubs will take it by a narrow margin.
Cubs 4 star plays – Wisdom, Bellinger
Cubs 3.5 star plays – Suzuki/Happ/Hoerner
GPP note – Mikolas is allowing good power to lefties and above-average xwOBA to righties, so you can attack him from either side.
Cardinals 4.5 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado
Cardinals 4 star plays – Contreras
GPP note – Steele can be tough but has allowed some good contact and power to lefties, so don’t be afraid to go that route to help with ownership.
Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox
We’ll wrap things up with the Guardians and White Sox, as Bibee and Cease will get the start. An 8.5 total, I think this game has a decent chance of seeing the over, as there is some power upside on both sides. There’s also plenty of strikeout potential, so these two starters may hold the key to tournament success today.
Guardians 4.5 star plays – Ramirez
Guardians 3.5 star plays – Naylor/Gimenez, Bell
GPP note – Not the best spot one could hope for, but Cease does allow moderate power to righties on occasion.
White Sox 4.5 star plays – Robert
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Anderson/Benintendi, Grandal/Vaughn/Burger
GPP note – Same as above, though there are at least more power righties at our disposal on this squad.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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Jul 15, 2023; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Kodai Senga (34) takes the field before a game against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
