Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 7/25:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Tyler Glasnow
- Corbin Burnes
- Blake Snell
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Seattle Mariners @ Minnesota Twins (-120)
Pitchers:
Mariners – George Kirby
Twins – Pablo Lopez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. We get yet another match-up between the two teams that strike out the most in baseball. Kirby just dominated this MIN lineup and Lopez was really freaking good against SEA, as well. Not much else to say, just give me the SPs and a one-off from each team and I will be happy tonight.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez, Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Edouard Julien, Alex Kirilloff
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 against RHPs.
Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays (-205)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Edward Cabrera
Rays – Tyler Glasnow
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I really wish this game was on the main slate. Glasnow lines up in such a great spot, as a strong favorite. Cabrera is an intriguing option against a struggling TB squad. The big worry with Cabrera is that he has a walk issue at this point in his young career.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Arraez, Jon Berti
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 against RHPs.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Siri, Yandy Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .191 against RHPs.
Baltimore Orioles @ Philadelphia Phillies (-125)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Kyle Gibson
Phillies – Taijuan Walker
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. The Phillies need their bats to wake back up and today could be that day, to be honest. Walker has been really freaking good the last month or so, which makes it a tougher spot for BAL. The Orioles bats are a bit better than PHI’s right now but I do think Walker is a better choice than Gibson. Maybe this is a game built on mini-stacks.
BAL 5-star plays: Gunnar Henderson
4-star plays: Ryan O’Hearn
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Trea Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against RHPs.
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers (-155)
Pitchers:
Reds – Andrew Abbott
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total 0f 8. If you’ve read my content this season, you know that I generally love LHPs against MIL. The issue is that MIL has already seen Abbott 3x during his rookie season. That gives them such an advantage in this match-up. Burnes has dominated the Reds and is in a great spot again, even with how dangerous the CIN offense is.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Matt McLain, Will Benson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against RHPs.
MIL 5-star plays: William Contreras
4-star plays: Joey Wiemer, Willy Adames
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against LHPs.
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Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians (-205)
Pitchers:
Royals – Zack Greinke
Guardians – Aaron Civale
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Civale has, somehow, owned the Royals roster in his career. It’s really weird because Civale is not a K guy but he has dominated KC bats with Ks at around 32% in his previous meetings. Greinke has been so bad that CLE might be able to explode. The issue I have is that Naylor and Bell are both in great spots but we have to choose one of them on DK tonight.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bobby Witt Jr, Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against RHPs.
CLE 5-star plays: Josh Naylor
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Myles Straw
GPP Note: Team ISO of .127 against RHPs.
Oakland Athletics @ San Francisco Giants (-255)
Pitchers:
A’s – Ken Waldichuk
Giants – Alex Cobb
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Giants aren’t very strong against LHPs so maybe Waldichuk becomes viable. I still like a few SF bats when they are facing LHPs. Cobb should carry quite a bit of ownership against the weak OAK squad, in this pitcher’s park.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Zack Gelof, Cody Thomas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 against RHPs.
SF 5-star plays: Wilmer Flores
4-star plays: Austin Slater, Luis Matos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .128 against LHPs.
Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals (-145)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Austin Gomber
Nationals – Trevor Williams
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 9.5. Trevor Williams could be a sneaky GPP option or this game sees 12+ runs again. Gomber has been better away from Coors but I love me some Lane Thomas against LHPs. WSH let down a bunch of people last night so tonight might be the night we want to go a little overweight on them.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nolan Jones
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .149 against RHPs.
WSH 5-star plays: Lane Thomas
4-star plays: CJ Abrams, Riley Adams
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against LHPs.
Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox
Pitchers:
Braves – Charlie Morton
Red Sox – Undecided
Rundown:
We are waiting on the Boston SP announcement. Potential weather, along with an unknown SP for BOS really makes this a tough game to figure out. With that being said, it’s not Chris Sale taking the mound so we should definitely jam in some ATL bats. I think some BOS bats are interesting but I also kind of think that Morton is sneaky if we get an All clear update when it comes to the weather.
ATL 5-star plays: Austin Riley, Orlando Arcia
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Michael Harris
GPP Note: Team ISO of .218 against RHPs.
BOS 5-star plays: Jarren Duran, Justin Turner
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, Tristan Casas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against RHPs.
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Toronto Blue Jays @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-145)
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Chris Bassitt
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Urias at home is definitely a different animal but TOR strikes out at under a 20% rate against LHPs. The plus for Urias is that the TOR lineup lacks power against LHPs. I am continually shocked every time I look at the TOR ISO numbers when they face LHPs. Bassitt has been strong for TOR but on the road, against this LAD squad? No thank you as I will be taking the Dodgers bats.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Alejandro Kirk, Vlad Guerrero Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .115 against LHPs.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Max Muncy, Mookie Betts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .203 against RHPs.
Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
White Sox – Michael Kopech
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. When do we get the May version of Michael Kopech back? If we get that version tonight, he’s in the GPP winner for sure. I love his upside but it’s a shaky route to get there with his walk and HR issues. Bellinger has been red-hot for the Cubs and he probably ends up a Core play for me tonight. Hendricks is nothing special and I really like the 3 man CWS stack below, even if Robert is struggling right now.
CHC 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: Mike Tauchman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against RHPs.
CWS 5-star plays: Luis Robert
4-star plays: Eloy Jimenez, Tim Anderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs.
Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers (-125)
Pitchers:
Angels – Griffin Canning
Tigers – Eduardo Rodriguez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. There’s plenty of K upside for each SP in this game but E-Rod has to handle Ohtani. On the Det side, Canning is more reverse splits than anything and that doesn’t bode well for facing Torkelson at the moment. His numbers won’t wow you but he’s been turning it around the last few weeks. Greene continue to impress at the plate, showing that he’s on his way to being a perennial All-Star.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Zach Neto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 against LHPs.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 against RHPs.
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres (-285)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Rich Hill
Padres – Blake Snell
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Snell leads baseball in walks but he’s also striking out a ton of dudes while leading in ERA. It’s going to be hard to ignore what he has to offer us tonight as the chalkiest option. I will stack against Rich Hill and I will probably hate it. I love taking the SD bats when they are facing LHPs at this point.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Henry Davis, Carlos Santana
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 against LHPs.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Ha-Seong Kim
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 against LHPs.
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros (-142)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Cody Bradford/Yerry Rodriguez
Astros – JP France
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. France hasn’t been good at home but he has been great against LHBs. It’s tough to judge him in this match-up. I hate taking pitchers against TEX but if he’s able to handle LHBs, maybe he can do just enough to shut down this offense. Houston feels like an elite play for me tonight, especially the 3 man combo below.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Jung, Nathaniel Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 against RHPs.
HOU 5-star plays: Kyle Tucker
4-star plays: Chas McCormick, Alex Bregman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against LHPs.
St Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-130)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Steven Matz
D’Backs – Zac Gallen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Gallen at home is about as elite as they come. I know the STL lineup has been a bit more dangerous in the 2nd half but they still aren’t elite. He just needs to avoid the Nolan combination. Matz has flashed his upside/ability but he hasn’t been able to stick as an SP at this point. I am a huge Arizona fan due to their upside so I will be jamming them in my builds tonight.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Nolan Gorman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Christian Walker, Emmanuel Rivera
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against LHPs.
New York Mets (-125) @ New York Yankees
Pitchers:
Mets – Justin Verlander
Yankees – Domingo German
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We get a couple of struggling offenses going up against some pitchers with upside. The downside is that both pitchers have struggled in spots as well. I think I’d rather mini-stack the offenses and use both SPs than to fully stack either side. Verlander was extremely strong against the Yankees the first time they faced off while we know what German is capable of doing.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mark Canha, Francisco Alvarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Harrison Bader
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- San Diego Padres
- Atlanta Braves
- Houston Astros
MLB Dinger of the Day – Manny Machado, Padres
May 8, 2022; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres third baseman Manny Machado (13) gestures after hitting a single during the fifth inning against the Miami Marlins at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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