Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. It’s Friday, and we’re met with our usual dose of 15 games. This time it’s split into four early games followed by an 11-game main slate. It’s not quite the 14+ gamer that some of you really love, but there’s still plenty of action to choose from. Either way, let’s dive in and see what we have to work with today!
A look at pitchers
We get a wide variety of options today, which is typical for days full of games. Lugo and Garrett look to be solid options for the early games, though Bradish does surpass them in KSCORE, if you’re brave enough to pick on the Rays. For the main slate, we have a whopping nine starters with KSCOREs north of 500. Senga leads the way with his 600+ score, but like Bradish, you’ll have to pick on a competent offense in the process. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early games
St Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
We’ll kick things off with our rivalry series, as the Cardinals will take on the Cubs. Flaherty and Steele will get the start, and with them, an 8.5 total. Vegas likes the home team here, which is probably fair, but seeing as we have some solid starting pitching, I could see this one going the under fairly easily.
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado
Cardinals 3.5 star plays – Conteras/DeJong
GPP note – Steele can be a tough one to crack, but he does allow some random power to lefties.
Cubs 4 star plays – Hoerner/Bellinger
Cubs 3.5 star plays – Happ/Suzuki
GPP note – Flaherty can also be tough, but is allowing decent xwOBA to both sides (lefties do have a slight advantage against him, though).
San Diego Padres at Detroit Tigers
Next up we have the Padres and Tigers, with Lugo and Olson on the mound. We move up to a 9.0 total with the visitors being the favored squad for this one. That’s the likely outcome, but seeing that Detroit is hitting righties pretty well, I don’t think that they’ll go down without a fight.
Padres 5 star plays – Soto
Padres 4 star plays – Machado/Tatis/Bogaerts, Grisham
GPP note – Olson is allowing moderate contact and power to both sides of the plate, so you can take anybody you want against him (and should do as such to help with ownership concerns).
Tigers 4 star plays – Greene
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Carpenter/Torkelson/McKinstry/Baez, Rogers
GPP note – An okay spot for these bats, Lugo is allowing moderate power to lefties which makes them interesting.
Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins
Anderson and the Rockies will take on Garrett and the Marlins next, and though there isn’t any Vegas insight as of yet, I think that we’ll see them favor the home team. While I think that Detroit is the better underdog team, there are a few bats in the Colorado offense that could shine, even if they aren’t playing at Coors.
Rockies 4 star plays – Bryant/McMahon/Cron
Rockies 3.5 star plays – Tovar/Profar
GPP note – Garrett is allowing good power to lefties, so you could test your luck there while also grabbing some righties who also carry some reasonable upside.
Marlins 5 star plays – Arraez, Soler
Marlins 4 star plays – Cooper/Sanchez/De La Cruz
GPP note – Anderson allows all sorts of contact and power to both sides of the plate, so you can go after him any way you’d like to.
Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays
We’ll round out the early games with the Orioles and Rays, as Bradish and Eflin will go head to head. An 8.0 total, it takes two quality starters to have such a low total for these potent offenses, which tells me this would be a good game to consider hedging with.
Orioles 4 star plays – Santander/Rutschman/Henderson
Orioles 3.5 star plays – O’Hearn
GPP note – Eflin isn’t a great target to attack, but righties do get moderate power out of him, so that could be a way to go.
Rays 4.5 star plays – Arozarena/Franco/Diaz
Rays 4 star plays – Lowe/Lowe/Siri
GPP note – Bradish allows some power to lefties on occasion but he also carries plenty of strikeout upside. This would be a good spot to hedge, if you like going that route.
Main slate
Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees
We’ll switch over to the main slate now, starting with my Royals and the Yankees. We’ll hae Marsh and Schmidt as the starters, as well as an 8.5 total. Unfortunately, it looks like mother nature is going to have something to say about this game actually playing out, so don’t be surprised to see it get pushed out to tomorrow.
Royals 4 star plays – Witt/Perez
Royals 3.5 star plays – Melendez/Olivares
GPP note – Not a great spot, but if they do play, a few bats could be useful as Schmidt does allow some power to both sides.
Yankees 4.5 star plays – Torres/Rizzo/Stanton
Yankees 4 star plays – Cabrera
GPP note – Marsh allows plenty of power but apparently also has random big game upside (who knew?), so you could always try hedging here.
Watching the weather is half the battle when it comes to MLB DFS. The DFS Army Weather Station has you covered, from games that have delay and postponement potential to games that could have significant winds that will play a role in selecting a team to stack or a pitcher to use.
San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals
Next up we’ll have the Giants and Nationals, with Wood and Irvin on the mound. We get a 9.5 total for this one, with the home team getting the nod from Vegas. They aren’t too expensive for how high of a total they get, so they’ll probably carry a decent amount of ownership.
Giants 4.5 star plays – Yastrzemski/Pederson
Giants 4 star plays – Flores/Conforto, Bailey
GPP note – Lots of Vegas love here, but aside from about one home run given up per appearance, Irvin isn’t really getting shelled as badly as this total and his salary would indicate. I don’t know that he’s a hedge target, but I don’t mind the idea of fading this team’s relatively high total against him or trying to cherry pick who may get a home run off of him.
Nationals 4 star plays – Cadelario/Thomas, Abrams
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Meneses/Call
GPP note – Wood is allowing good contact and power to both sides of the plate and carries a somewhat low strikeout rate, making this a decent target to pivot to.
New York Mets at Boston Red Sox
Senga and the Mets will take on Crawford and the Red Sox next, and we get another 9.5 total for this game. The weather doesn’t look as bad as the KC/NY game, but there could still be some trouble here, so be sure to keep an eye on the skies for this game as well.
Mets 4.5 star plays – Lindor/Alonso
Mets 4 star plays – Nimmo/McNeil, Alvarez
GPP note – Crawford has some reverse splits working against him, as righties are getting much better contact and power out of him than lefties are.
Red Sox 4.5 star plays – Devers/Yoshida
Red Sox 3.5 star plays – Martinez/Turner, Casas/Duran
GPP note – Tough spot for these bats, and again we see some reverse splits in action, so don’t neglect the righties if you go here. Either way, hedging wouldn’t be a bad idea.
Philadelphia Phillies at Cleveland Guardians
Moving right along, our next game will be between the Phillies and Guardians, who will see Suarez and Williams as the starters. We move down to an 8.0 total for this game, but I think that they can sneak by and hit the over, even if just by a run or two. The lower total should help to keep these bats off the radar a bit, for what it’s worth.
Phillies 5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 4 star plays – Schwarber/Stott, Castellanos/Turner
GPP note – Good spot for these bats, especially the lefties (though righties are getting decent-ish xwOBA out of Williams).
Guardians 4.5 star plays – Ramirez, Naylor/Bell
Guardians 3.5 star plays – Kwan/Rosario
GPP note – Suarez is allowing moderate power to both sides, though more of it is actually going to lefties.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds
We’ll head to our “mini-Coors” game next, as the Diamondbacks will take on the Reds with Henry and Lively on the mound. We get a slate-high 10.5 total, with the home team being the slight favorites. There are plenty of high-upside bats here, though you will have to pay a hefty price if you want to stack the ones near the top of the order (the cheaper bats down low would like you to take a look at them).
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – Carroll
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Marte/Perdomo, Walker/Gurriel, Moreno
GPP note – Solid spot for these bats, as Lively is allowing plenty of contact and power to both sides of the plate with an average strikeout rate.
Reds 5 star plays – De La Cruz
Reds 4 star plays – McLain/Votto, Friedl/India
GPP note – Also a solid spot, but with this high of a total they’ll be quite chalky. Consider wrap-arounds or getting funky with your secondary stacks to help with the increased ownership.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Texas Rangers
Next up we’ll have the Dodgers taking on the Rangers, with Gonsolin and Heaney to lead the way for their teams. We get a healthy 9.5 total for this one, and it’s split right down the middle in the eyes of Vegas. This is another game that I like the over by a run or two, and with the previous game likely taking a lot of attention, this could be a good place to pivot to.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Betts/Freeman
Dodgers 4 star plays – Martinez/Smith, Muncy
GPP note – Heaney carries a decent strikeout rate but he’s also allowing good contact and power to both sides of the plate, so you can proceed as you normally would (or consider hedging since Heaney should carry low ownership).
Rangers 5 star plays – Seager
Rangers 4 star plays – Semien/Lowe/Garcia, Heim/Taveras
GPP note – Same total as the other side but Gonsolin might be the softer target (lefties do have the advantage against him, though).
The MLB DFS Research Station is my #1 source for research every single day and is one of the VIP Only tools our members have access to daily. The info in the MLB Research Station includes today’s 📊 DFS Army Projection, Adjusted BVP matchups and much more. This tool will cut your daily research time in half. If you’re familiar with Ben you already know the time they’ve put into the “Sheets” and are extremely happy to provide them as a part of your DFS Army VIP Membership this year.
Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers
Soroko and the Braves will take on Peralta and the Brewers next, and we get another 9.5 total for this one. This game is also split down the middle, as the team with the better offense has the weaker starter and vice versa. My gut is telling me that the lower is the more likely outcome, so we’ll see what we get.
Braves 4.5 star plays – Acuna
Braves 4 star plays – Olson/Albies, Riley/Murphy/Ozuna
GPP note – Peralta is a tough target who has plenty of strikeout upside, but we know how much upside this offense possess, too. Hedge!
Brewers 4.5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 3.5 star plays – Winker/Conteras/Adames
GPP note – Soroka has shown some ups and downs in his return, so attacking or hedging a little here isn’t a terrible idea.
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins
Next up we have Lynn and the White Sox taking on Ryan and the Twins. An 8.5 total, this is another game that my gut is saying the under (yes, my gut can speak English), but I will agree with Vegas that the home team is probably going to take the W.
White Sox 4 star plays – Robert
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Benintendi/Burger/Anderson
GPP note – Another tough spot on the day, Ryan carries plenty of upside but does allow some power to righties, so contrarian stacks and/or hedging would be fine here.
Twins 4.5 star plays – Buxton/Correa, Julien
Twins 4 star plays – Kepler
GPP note – Same idea as above, but Lynn is less expensive and it’s the lefties with the advantage against him.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Angels
We’ll head to our late games next, starting with the Pirates and Angels. We get another 8.5 total here, and we will get Oviedo and Ohtani as the starters. Vegas likes the home team here too, which is hard to argue against when Ohtani is pitching, so we’ll see he can have one of his strong outings, or if the Pirates can scrounge up an upset.
Pirates 4 star plays – Suwinski, McCutchen/Reynolds
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Santana
GPP note – It’s Ohtani, so you know the drill (contrarian and/or hedge, if you haven’t already gotten your fill of that today).
Angels 4.5 star plays – Moniak
Angels 4 star plays – Moustakas
GPP note – Oviedo allows good xwOBA to both sides and a decent chunk of power to lefties.
Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics
Valdez and the Astros will take on Sears and the Athletics next, as we get a slate-low 7.5 total to start with. Most of that is going to the visitors, so keep that in mind before you auto-fade this game’s offenses, as they may see less ownership than a team in their spot would normally have.
Astros 4.5 star plays – Bregman/Tucker
Astros 4 star plays – Pena, McCormick
GPP note – Sears allows decent power to righties, but lefties are getting much more contact and power out of him.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Rooker
GPP note – Not a great spot for these guys, but they are at least cheap and will carry very little ownership, I guess?
Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners
And finally, we’ll wrap up the day with the Blue Jays and Mariners, with Kikuchi and Miller on the mound. We only get an 8.0 total for this one, and while I think we could see the over, I think that it’s more likely that we’ll either get a dud or a big chunk of fireworks, rather than just barely being over or under.
Blue Jays 4.5 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 3.5 star plays – Merrifield/Chapman/Belt
GPP note – A mostly tough spot, but Miller does allow power to both sides of the plate, so you can still go to these bats for their power upside.
Mariners 4 star plays – Rodriguez/Hernandez
Mariners 3.5 star plays – Suarez/Murphy/Crawford
GPP note – It’s Kikuchi, so if you aren’t somehow hedging somewhere else (or if you just really love to hedge), be sure you’re doing so here.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
The only thing you are missing at this point is the key to unlock the next level of your game. Come inside and check us out!! We have experts sharing their secrets and experience on a daily basis. Combine that with the actual ability to ask them questions and get quick answers in return gives you a recipe for success that puts our army hats on leaderboards all over the face of DFS.
When you sign up, don’t forget to use promo code NILLY to save 10% on your VIP membership each and every month!
–> Join the Winning Team Now! <–
Jul 20, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; St. Louis Cardinals catcher Willson Contreras (40) slides safely into second base with a one run double as Chicago Cubs second baseman Christopher Morel (5) makes a late tag during the first inning during the first inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
