Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB DFS Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. It’s Thursday and we have a 7-game main slate followed by three evening games. Be aware that the main slate starts a bit earlier than what we’re used to seeing during the week, so if you’re used to making lineups during your lunch break, you may need to make other plans. Either way, there’s plenty to cover, so let’s get to it!
Quick Look at MLB DFS Pitchers
While we don’t have a ton of options on this medium-sized day, we still have some decent ones. Snell leads the way in most categories thanks to the rampage he’s been having, though there are still some others with high strikeout upside such as Lopez and Abbott to consider. We also have some pitchers with plenty of upside who find themselves in tough spots, such as Gallen, but they shouldn’t garner a whole lot of ownership, either. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Main MLB DFS Slate
Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves
We’ll kick things off with the Diamondbacks and Braves, as Gallen and Strider will take the mound. We get a 9.0 total, and seeing as we have talent all splattered all over this one, there is sure to be some fantasy goodness to find with our opener. What more could we ask for to start off the day?
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Carroll
Diamondbacks 3.5 star plays – Marte, Walker, McCarthy
GPP note – Strider allows some power and it can come from either side, so hedging against him isn’t a bad idea since he also carries plenty of upside.
Braves 4.5 star plays – Acuna
Braves 4 star plays – Olson/Albies, Riley/Ozuna
GPP note – Similar idea as above, though Gallen does have a much tougher matchup. Lefties get the power advantage against him.
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies
Next up we have Burnes and the Brewers set to take on Walker and the Phillies. Another 9.0 total, this one is split a bit more evenly than the previous game, and I do agree that it will be a tight one. It may just depend on which starter can outpace the other – or perhaps we’ll get a decent duel here.
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 3.5 star plays – Adames/Winker, Tapia
GPP note – Walker allows some power to lefties but has been strict to righties, so I don’t know that huge stacks would be the answer here.
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper/Schwarber, Castellanos
Phillies 3.5 star plays – Turner, Marsh
GPP note – Tough matchup against Burnes who isn’t allowing much outside of a random homer here or there.
San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds
Cobb and the Giants will take on Abbott and the Reds next, as we move up to a 9.5 total. Vegas likes the visitors for this one, but my gut tells me that Cincy will take it. We’ll see if Abbott can bounce back from his last two starts, because they’ll certainly need him to.
Giants 4 star plays – Davis, Bailey
Giants 3.5 star plays – Flores/Yastrzemski
GPP note – Another hedge opportunity, Abbott has shown plenty of upside but does seem to allow big hits in spurts.
Reds 4.5 star plays – De La Cruz, Fraley/Votto
Reds 4 star plays – McLain, India/Friedl
GPP note – Cobb is allowing good contact to lefties, so a healthy chunk of traditional splits would be the way to go here.
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San Diego Padres at Toronto Blue Jays
Snell and the Padres will take on Bassitt and the Blue Jays next, as we get another 9.0 total. Vegas likes the visitors again here, but this time I would agree with their assessment. However, if Snell can keep his momentum going, then Toronto will probably struggle to hit their mid-4.0 implied total. If nothing else, this is another good game to get some hedge work in with.
Padres 4.5 star plays – Soto, Machado
Padres 4 star plays – Tatis/Bogaerts, Grisham
GPP note – Bassitt is allowing good contact and power to lefties but has been pretty strict to righties.
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Guerrero/Springer, Bichette
Blue Jays 3.5 star plays – Merrifield/Chapman
GPP note – It’s hard to want to attack Snell, but you could always go contrarian or hedge.
Chicago White Sox at New York Mets
Next up we’ll have Kopech and the White Sox taking on Quintana and the Mets. Another healthy 9.5 total, this will be Quintana’s first game back since spring training, so we’ll see how that goes. I’m always a fan of hedging with or attacking pitchers in their return, so this will be no different.
White Sox 4.5 star plays – Robert
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Anderson, Benintendi/Vaughn
GPP note – Several of these bats are hitting lefties for some power, making this as good of a spot to go as any.
Mets 4.5 star plays – Lindor/Alonso
Mets 4 star plays – Nimmo/McNeil, Pham
GPP note – Kopech is allowing good contact and power to both sides of the plate, so we’ll see if these bats can take advantage of the good spot that they’re in.
Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals
Lorenzen and the Tigers will take on Greinke and my Royals next, and though we don’t have any insight from Vegas yet, I’d imagine it’ll be about the same as what we’ve seen from this series. If nothing else, both starters are cheap, so that should make at least one of them interesting (probably the one from Detroit, honestly).
Tigers 4.5 star plays – Greene
Tigers 4 star plays – Carpenter/Torkelson/Baez
GPP note – Greinke is allowing good contact and power to both sides and comes in with a low strikeout rate, so you can attack him as usual.
Royals 4 star plays – Perez/Witt
Royals 3.5 star plays – Melendez/Olivares
GPP note – Lorenzen isn’t allowing a whole lot of power but he is allowing modest xwOBA to both sides, so you can always try a few bats from here.
Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners
We’ll round out the main slate with the Twins and Mariners, with Lopez and Kirby on the hill. We get a slate-low 7.5 total for this one, which of course puts both starters on the map by default. There should still be at least a few bats that prove to be useful though, so be ready to cherry pick your way around this one (or you can just go full-blown contrarian stacking).
Twins 4 star plays – Buxton/Corea
Twins 3.5 star plays – Julien/Kepler
GPP note – Lefties have the statcast advantage against Kirby, should you decide to go with these bats with a low total.
Mariners 4 star plays – Rodriguez
Mariners 3.5 star plays – Suarez/Crawford
GPP note – Not a great spot against Lopez, but a handful of these bats are hitting righties for power.
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Late MLB DFS Games
Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays
We’ll switch over to the late games now, starting with the Orioles and Rays. Gibson and Glasnow will get the start here, along with a modest 8.5 total. Most of that is going to the home team, which seems fair considering the pitching matchup, but the O’s will surely try their best to find a way to get the Glasnow.
Orioles 4 star plays – Santander/Rutschman/Henderson
Orioles 3.5 star plays – O’Hearn/Hays
GPP note – Tough spot overall for these bats, though Glasnow is allowing decent contact and power to lefties. Hedging here isn’t a terrible idea.
Rays 4.5 star plays – Arozarena/Franco
Rays 4 star plays – Diaz/Raley, Siri
GPP note – Gibson is allowing good contact and power to righties, which bodes well for this offense.
St Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
We get a good ol’ rivalry game next, as the Cardinals and Cubs face off at Wrigley. Matz and Stroman will get the start, and with them we get another 8.5 total. I agree with Vegas saying that the home team should take the W, but my gut is leaning towards the under for this one.
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado
Cardinals 3.5 star plays – Nootbaar/Donovan, Walker
GPP note – Stroman has done a good job of being stingy to both sides of the plate, so stack with caution.
Cubs 4 star plays – Hoerner/Suzuki/Happ
Cubs 3.5 star plays – Bellinger
GPP note – Matz is allowing moderate xwOBA to both sides of the plate and for the most part hasn’t looked dominant, so you can take some swings at him from either hand.
Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics
We’ll wrap up the day with the Astros and Athletics, with France and Harris to get the start. Another 8.5 total, Vegas likes Houston for this one, though that’s probably not much of a surprise. As usual, the A’s have some cheap bats and there is at least a decent chance that some of them could have a solid day, so they may be of service to us.
Astros 4.5 star plays –Bregman
Astros 4 star plays – Pena, Maldonado
GPP note – Solid spot for these bats, as Harris is allowing good power to righties and good x/wOBA to lefties.
Athletics 4 star plays – Brown
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Kemp
GPP note – Not much love for this offense, but France does carry a low strikeout rate and is allowing moderate xwOBA to righties, so some small or medium-sized contrarian stacks aren’t off the table.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the MLB DFS coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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