Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 7/19:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Luis Castillo
- Brayan Bello
- Eduardo Rodriguez
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Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners (-160)
Pitchers:
Twins – Kenta Maeda
Mariners – Luis Castillo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Another Seattle game with a low run total and solid pitching options. Castillo is the best SP the Mariners have so I have to believe he’s in a great spot with his K ability matched with the Twins massive K rate. Maeda is sneakier but understand that the Mariners are #2 in baseball in terms of Ks (behind MIN). I stacked up Minnesota on Tuesday against Woo but I don’t see myself doing it against Castillo.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Edouard Julien, Alex Kirilloff
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JP Crawford, Jarred Kelenic
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs.
Miami Marlins @ St Louis Cardinals (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Cardinals – Dakota Hudson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Hudson isn’t stretched out enough so he’s not an option for us, unfortunately. Alcantara has started to look a little better but he still doesn’t look like a Cy Young winner. The Cardinals offense is intriguing but I don’t think it’s a lock that they keep rolling against Alcantara. Not really a game that I want a ton of exposure to but I think mini-stacks are the way to attack it.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jesus Sanchez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 against RHPs.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Brendan Donovan, Dylan Carlson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against RHPs.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-155) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Orioles – Dean Kremer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I love left handed pitching in Camden but I don’t exactly love it facing the Orioles. I think Urias is a guy that can go out and win us the slate but the O’s have some guys that can do damage to LHPs. Kremer has been impressive for BAL this season but the Dodgers are just too freaking good. Not sure where they’ll land in my rankings but you know I will be stacking them up.
LAD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Mookie Betts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 against RHPs.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against LHPs.
San Francisco Giants (-120) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Giants – Ross Stripling
Reds – Graham Ashcraft
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total 0f 10.5. We should see some more runs in Cincinnati today. Ashcraft has looked better this time around but his K numbers aren’t there yet. He has been more of a reverse splits guy at the MLB level but I think LHBs can get to him too. Stripling is a weird one so I will avoid him while CIN is super hit/miss right now. There’s so much power and speed in their lineup.
SF 5-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski
4-star plays: Michael Conforto, JD Davis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Jonathan India
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs.
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Detroit Tigers (-155) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Tigers – Eduardo Rodriguez
Royals – Ryan Yarbrough
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I really like this pitching match-up, which probably backfires on me like it did last night. E-Rod should be super popular and in a great spot but we thought that about Skubal last night. Yarbrough is a sneaky option on DK as the cheapest SP on the slate. Detroit bats have carried ownership the last 2 days and, for the most part, they disappointed those who rostered them.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jake Rogers, Javy Baez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against LHPs.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bobby Witt Jr, Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 against LHPs.
Boston Red Sox (-220) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Brayan Bello
Athletics – Ken Waldichuk
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Bello is going to be super popular for the day action as we continue to pick on the A’s offense. I prefer BOS against RHPs but I think they can get to Waldichuk as well. Just be prepared to see some pinch-hitting at some point when they look to take out guys like Refnsyder. Bello doesn’t rack up the Ks like I would have thought he would at the MLB level.
BOS 5-star plays: Justin Turner
4-star plays: Adam Duvall
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against LHPs.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JJ Bleday
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 against RHPs.
Houston Astros (-160) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Astros – Brandon Bielak
Rockies – Austin Gomber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 12. McCormick has been on an absolute tear so I am going to have to ride him. I probably should make him a 5-Star at this point. I wouldn’t be shocked if Bielak puts up a respectable line but I also wouldn’t be shocked if COL hits 2-3 bombs either. Tucker is a great play in a bounce back, in an LvL spot where he has success. Bregman isn’t as hot as McCormick but he’s definitely rolling.
HOU 5-star plays: Kyle Tucker
4-star plays: Chas McCormick, Alex Bregman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against LHPs.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: CJ Cron, Nolan Jones
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .150 against RHPs.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves (-220)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Ryne Nelson
Braves – Charlie Morton
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. I want to believe that Morton can do enough to be viable but we just watched the D’Backs offense dismantle Elder and the Braves staff. I think the Braves bats have a better shot at backing up their double-digit runs with another strong performance today. Riley is rolling at the plate but I really think Olson wakes up soon and today feels like a great time for that to happen.
ARI 5-star plays: Corbin Carroll
4-star plays: Christian Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs.
ATL 5-star plays: Matt Olson, Ronald Acuna
4-star plays: Austin Riley, Michael Harris
GPP Note: Team ISO of .213 against RHPs.
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San Diego Padres @ Toronto Blue Jays (-120)
Pitchers:
Padres – Yu Darvish
Blue Jays – Jose Berrios
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I definitely have zero interest in Darvish, even after Musgrove got it done last night. Darvish hasn’t been good on the road and I just don’t think the Blue Jays lay an egg again tonight. Berrios has been strong at home so I have some interest but the Padres offense is super dangerous and it might be a spot to just look at some mini-stacks of hitters. Strong game total despite two solid SPs on the mound.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against RHPs.
TOR 5-star plays: George Springer
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Brandon Belt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs.
Washington Nationals @ Chicago Cubs (-165)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Trevor Williams
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Solid game total in Wrigley so I have to assume the wind is blowing out a little bit. Neither offense is one that I am excited to fully stack but they make a very compelling case to be mini-stacked. I love the top of the lineup for the Nats while Bellinger is absolutely locked in for the Cubs. I would normally love to try and use SPs against each of these teams but neither guy is worth it to me.
WSH 5-star plays: CJ Abrams
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 against RHPs.
CHC 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: Ian Happ
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 against RHPs.
New York Yankees (-140) @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Yankees – Carlos Rodon
Angels – Chase Silseth
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Harrison Bader, Giancarlo Stanton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 against LHPs.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against LHPs.
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Cleveland Guardians (-140) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Guardians – Aaron Civale
Pirates – Rich Hill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. This is an island game today, with a super early start time. Ramirez has struggled against LHPs but has crushed Rich Hill in previous match-ups. Civale looks to be a decent option against a struggling PIT offense. I don’t have a lot of love for this game, even with a game total at 9 as of right now. Henry Davis looks every bit of the #1 overall draft pick from 2 years ago.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Amed Rosario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 against LHPs.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Henry Davis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against RHPs.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers (-120)
Pitchers:
Rays – Cooper Criswell
Rangers – Jon Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We get an opener/long man situation with TB. Gray hasn’t been as strong at home this season but there is upside against a TB offense that has cooled since their hot start to the season. I want exposure to the Texas offense even against a bullpen type game from the Rays. Semien has turned it on while Lowe has tried to match him. Seager is just super steady at this point.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Lowe, Francisco Mejia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 against RHPs.
TEX 5-star plays: Marcus Semien
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Nathaniel Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 against RHPs.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies (-178)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Colin Rea
Phillies – Cristopher Sanchez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. An LHP against MIL will ALWAYS get me excited. I think they are just a super weak offense against LHPs, even if I do believe they are slightly better than they have shown against them. The Phillies offense appears to be waking up as Schwarber and Harper are starting to carry the top half of the lineup. If Castellanos wakes back up, they should start to put up runs consistently.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, William Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against LHPs.
PHI 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs.
Chicago White Sox @ New York Mets (-220)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Touki Toussaint
Mets – Justin Verlander
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Mets exploded and ruined my happiness on Tuesday night. I hope they explode again as this time, I won’t be on the White Sox pitcher. Verlander hasn’t been elite this season but he has been pretty strong at home, even without big K numbers. The overall CWS lineup has been so damn weak that it’s impossible to not want to get a bunch of exposure to a guy like Verlander.
CHW 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Robert
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Atlanta Braves
- San Francisco Giants
- Cincinnati Reds
MLB Dinger of the Day – Chas McCormick, Astros
Jul 4, 2022; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves right fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. (13) runs the bases against the St. Louis Cardinals during the fourth inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
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