Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 7/18:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Bailey Ober
- Tarik Skubal
- Carlos Carrasco
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Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners (-135)
Pitchers:
Twins – Bailey Ober
Mariners – Bryan Woo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Woo has been hit by LHBs, somewhat hard at the MLB level. Knowing that, it makes me a little worried about him but the K upside is massive in this spot. If the Twins go LHB heavy tonight, I will have to include them in my stacks. Ober has been really good for MIN and the Mariners strike out a TON on their own. Should be like last night’s MIN-SEA game in that the SPs probably combine for 55-65% ownership on DK.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Edouard Julien, Joey Gallo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JP Crawford, Julio Rodriguez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs.
Miami Marlins @ St Louis Cardinals (-155)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Edward Cabrera
Cardinals – Jordan Montgomery
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I think both SPs are very interesting in this match-up but Cabrera returning from a lengthy IL stint makes me have to back off of him. From my understanding, he has thrown just 1 simulated game in his month+ absence. I would have to guess he’s very limited from a pitch count standpoint. Some of the Cardinals bats have awoken so maybe they become a viable, sneaky stack option tonight.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jorge Soler, Dane Myers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 against LHPs.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Gorman
4-star plays: Brendan Donovan
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against RHPs.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Baltimore Orioles (-125)
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Michael Grove
Orioles – Tyler Wells
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. It’s hard not to love this game again tonight. Wells gives up a ton of HRs, especially to RHBs, but he doesn’t allow a ton of hits. Grove gets hit hard by LHBs and that’s not a great thing when facing these Orioles, in Baltimore. I wouldn’t be shocked if we see a game that has 5+ HRs between these two this evening. Baltimore will be higher on my stack rankings than the Dodgers but you can bet your ass both will be top 10.
LAD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Mookie Betts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 against RHPs.
BAL 5-star plays: Anthony Santander
4-star plays: Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against RHPs.
San Francisco Giants (-135) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Giants – Anthony DeSclafani
Reds – Luke Weaver
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total 0f 11. I keep looking at the recent Reds performances and I wonder why we are seeing an 11 total in this one. Cincinnati has been on the struggle bus of late and DeSclafani is more than capable of forcing that trend to continue tonight. Weaver is in a tough spot but there are a few of the Giants who are struggling at the moment. I do know that SF will fall into my top 7-ish tonight but I can’t say the same for the Reds.
SF 5-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski
4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Lamonte Wade
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Matt McLain, Jonathan India
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs.
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Detroit Tigers (-155) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Tigers – Tarik Skubal
Royals – Daniel Lynch
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Salvy Perez has crushed Skubal in previous match-ups but he’s been dealing with some injury issues. Skubal has looked great in his 2 appearances since returning from the IL. He hasn’t been able to go deep into a game yet as he has topped out at 63 pitches. I would imagine they allow him to get to the 70+ mark but I also thought that leading into last start. The popular Tigers sucked ass last night so expect them to go nuts tonight, for no good reason.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jake Rogers, Javy Baez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against LHPs.
KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez
4-star plays: Bobby Witt Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 against LHPs.
Boston Red Sox @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Undecided
Athletics – Luis Medina
Rundown:
Waiting on the announcement of the Red Sox pitching plans. It looks to me like it could be a bullpen type game again, which is a little annoying considering it’s such a great match-up for their pitching staff. The Red Sox bats have been rolling of late and I think they keep it up against Medina, who they have seen previously. I normally only like to be on them when at home but they performed last night in OAK, so why not go back to the well tonight.
BOS 5-star plays: Jarren Duran, Justin Turner
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Triston Casas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against RHPs.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Zack Gelof
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 against RHPs.
Houston Astros @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Astros – Hunter Brown
Rockies – Undecided
Rundown:
We are waiting on the Rockies’ SP plans. We could see Noah Davis recalled from the minors but it’s all just rumors at this point. I’m not interested in COL SPs in Coors anyways. The main questions in this game are: can we trust Hunter Brown against a weak lineup and can the Astros buck the general trends about teams struggling in their first game at Coors? It’s not a lock that they will struggle but more times than not, teams underperform that first night.
HOU 5-star plays: Kyle Tucker
4-star plays: Chas McCormick, Alex Bregman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: CJ Cron, Nolan Jones
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .150 against RHPs.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves (-205)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Zach Davies
Braves – Bryce Elder
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10.5. The D’Backs are struggling so much that I actually considered Elder against them but I have since moved on from that thought. I love the Braves against Davies, with a very strong team total. They are such a dangerous offense that you need to make multiple versions of ATL stacks to cover the combinations that you need to get exposure to. Perdomo is an interesting one-off for me at a position that I don’t love tonight.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel, Geraldo Perdomo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs.
ATL 5-star plays: Matt Olson, Ronald Acuna
4-star plays: Marcel Ozuna, Michael Harris
GPP Note: Team ISO of .213 against RHPs.
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San Diego Padres (-115) @ Toronto Blue Jays
Pitchers:
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Blue Jays – Alek Manoah
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Every night we seem to get a game or two that leaves me stumped and this one falls into that category. Both offenses are super potent but have been underachievers for much of the season. Musgrove has been far better than Manoah has but coming into this season, I think most would have taken Manoah ahead of Musgrove. I think this game has a wide range of outcomes but I think SD is more likely to explode than TOR is.
SD 5-star plays: Trent Grisham
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against RHPs.
TOR 5-star plays: George Springer
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Daulton Varsho
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs.
Washington Nationals @ Chicago Cubs (-170)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Cubs – Jameson Taillon
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. This is a very intriguing game to me as I think the wind is blowing out, slightly, in Wrigley. I really think both teams are viable mini-stack options but I can’t make up my mind as far as a main stack just yet. Bellinger is locked in, hits LHPs well, and has had success against Corbin. Abrams and Candelario seem to be locked in but make sure Candelario is fully healthy.
WSH 5-star plays: CJ Abrams
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 against RHPs.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Miguel Amaya
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against LHPs.
New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Yankees – Domingo German
Angels – Patrick Sandoval
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Yankees offer plenty of K upside for Sandoval but he hasn’t been a big K guy this season. They also have plenty of power against LHPs, even if they are struggling at this point. German has been all over the map in terms of performances but we know that he’s capable of putting up big performances and that’s why we use him in GPPs. If German is able to avoid Ohtani right now, he probably puts up a respectable line.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Harrison Bader, Giancarlo Stanton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 against LHPs.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Taylor Ward
GPP Note: Team ISO of .194 against RHPs.
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Cleveland Guardians @ Pittsburgh Pirates (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Guardians – Logan Allen
Pirates – Mitch Keller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We should be on both SPs but which one over the other? It’s really tough because Keller is obviously better than Allen but the Guardians’ lineup isn’t big on the Ks while PIT’s offense has been pretty weak so Allen’s return to the MLB level might get a boost. I think both sides actually have a mini-stack combination that can win you GPPs tonight. I lean towards the CLE mini-stack below.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Naylor, Steven Kwan
GPP Note: Team ISO of .124 against RHPs.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Henry Davis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 against LHPs.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers (-135)
Pitchers:
Rays – Taj Bradley
Rangers – Nathan Eovaldi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Bradley has some electric upside but he hits the wall and gets into trouble. That’s not a good thing when facing the potent Texas offense, especially in Texas. I really think the Rangers do some damage in this one. Eovaldi looked like he was hitting a bit of a wall in the first half but should come in pretty rested while the TB offense has been far less consistent than they were to begin the season. Eovaldi has some upside in this spot.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Lowe, Francisco Mejia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 against RHPs.
TEX 5-star plays: Adolis Garcia
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Nathaniel Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 against RHPs.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies (-220)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Julio Teheran
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. This game features two of my favorite Dong calls for tonight but I might skip them because this game isn’t on the main slate. Yelich has strong BvP against Nola while Harper has absolutely DOMINATED Teheran in previous meetings. He is 19 for 47 with 9 HRs, 3 2Bs, and 12 BBs against Teheran. I really wish this game was on the main slate tonight because PHI looks prime for a 10 run performance.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, William Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 against RHPs.
PHI 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs.
Chicago White Sox @ New York Mets (-120)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Mets – Carlos Carrasco
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Mets are ice cold at the plate so maybe that makes Giolito the better play than Carrasco. I really like Carrasco against a weak White Sox lineup after he dominated a tough ARI squad. He has been steady after struggling to begin the season. Right now, I’d have to imagine the best play here is the under based on what I am seeing from these two squads right now.
CHW 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Atlanta Braves
- Texas Rangers
- Boston Red Sox
MLB Dinger of the Day – Kyle Tucker, Astros
Jul 1, 2022; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros right fielder Kyle Tucker (30) reacts to his single against the Los Angeles Angels in the third inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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