Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. It’s Monday, so we’re back to the grind with a 10-game main slate and a surprising lack of any early games, which doesn’t seem to happen very often. Baseball aside, our NASCAR race was postponed until today, so if you haven’t been joining us for those because you’ve been too busy on the weekend, be sure to do so this morning!
A look at pitchers
Pitching looks a little goofy today, as we have a few lesser-known names in some of the earlier games, expensive pitchers in not-so-great spots, and a few budget arms in good spots. For cash games, somebody like Gilbert looks to be a decent option to go with, but I would not be surprised to see cheaper arms reign supreme for tournament use today. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Main slate
Los Angeles Dodgers at Baltimore Orioles
We’ll kick things off with the Dodgers and Orioles, with Sheehan and Rodriguez on the mound. We get a solid 9.5 total to start the evening with, but something tells me they’ll be pushing the over here.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Freeman/Betts
Dodgers 4 star plays – Muncy, Smith/Martinez
GPP note – When Rodriguez was last pitching, he was basically a living home run derby, so it’s hard to imagine he’ll be able to contain this offense.
Orioles 4.5 star plays – Santander/Rutschman
Orioles 4 star plays – Henderson
GPP note – Sheehan can hold his own but has allowed decent power to lefties, though these bats have slowed down a bit against righties.
Cleveland Guardians at Pittsburgh Pirates
Next up we have the Guardians and Pirates, with Curry and Priester to get the start. The 9.0 total looks decent enough, but unfortunately the weather does not, so be sure to keep an eye on the skies for this one (maybe not for the pitchers, but it would be a shame if all the bats got rained out).
Guardians 5 star plays – Ramirez
Guardians 4 star plays – Gimenez/Naylor, Brennan
GPP note – I have no idea what to expect from Priester, but it’s never a bad idea to attack (or hedge with) a pitcher making their return.
Pirates 4.5 star plays – Suwinski/Reynolds
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Santana
GPP note – I’m not sure how long we’ll see Curry (2-3 innings, perhaps), but he’s allowing good numbers to righties, so don’t be afraid to test your luck there.
San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds
Webb and the Giants will take on Williamson and the Reds next, as we move up to a 10.0 total. Unfortunately, we have more weather issues here, so you’ll want to keep an eye on things here as well. There’s a pretty good chance that this slate turns into an 8-gamer, but if we all do an anti-rain dance, perhaps we can save the day?
Giants 4.5 star plays – Bailey, Davis
Giants 3.5 star plays – Flores/Slater
GPP note – Williamson is allowing good xwOBA to both sides and a good chunk of power to righties, putting both sides of the plate into play.
Reds 4 star plays – De La Cruz/Votto
Reds 3.5 star plays – McLain, Friedl, India
GPP note – Webb has some reverse splits working against him, as he’s allowed more contact and power to righties in his recent starts. He also carries plenty of upside, so consider hedging here if you can’t decide which way to go.
Miami Marlins at St Louis Cardinals
Moving right along, our next game will be between the Marlins and Cardinals, as Luzardo and Mikolas will face off. We get an 8.5 total that is split down the middle, which I don’t know that I can really agree with. I feel like the Marlins hold the advantage here, so that’s where I’ll make my stand.
Marlins 4.5 star plays – Arraez, De La Cruz/Soler
Marlins 4 star plays – Cooper
GPP note – Mikolas enters this game with a low strikeout rate and plenty of contact given up to both sides, so any sort of stacking is in play here.
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado
Cardinals 3.5 star plays – DeJong
GPP note – Tough spot for these bats, though Luzardo does allow some power to righties from time to time.
Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers
McClanahan and the Rays will take on Dunning and the Rangers next, along with another 8.5 total. The Rays get a slight nod here, which is probably fair, but McClanahan has some work to do to pay off that big salary against this Texas offense.
Rays 5 star plays – Franco, Arozarena
Rays 4 star plays – Lowe, Siri
GPP note – Dunning is allowing good contact and power to both sides, so this is another spot where you can stack however you desire.
Rangers 4.5 star plays – Semien/Seager
Rangers 4 star plays – Garcia/Jung, Grossman
GPP note – McClanahan was on a slide before the break, and if that continues, he could be in for a rough day here. Be sure to attack him in case that happens (or consider hedging if you think the break helped him get back to good).
Watching the weather is half the battle when it comes to MLB DFS. The DFS Army Weather Station has you covered, from games that have delay and postponement potential to games that could have significant winds that will play a role in selecting a team to stack or a pitcher to use.
Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs
We’ll head to the second half of the slate as the Nationals take on the Cubs, with Gore and Smyly as the starters. We get another 8.5 total here, and while I think that’s probably fair for an “average” outcome, I could see some of these bats having a good day, helping to push to the over just slightly.
Nationals 4.5 star plays – Thomas/Candelario
Nationals 4 star plays – Meneses, Abrams
GPP note – Smyly has been allowing plenty of solid contact and power to both side of the plate for a while now, so going after him with some budget bats isn’t a bad idea.
Cubs 4 star plays – Suzuki, Hoerner
Cubs 3.5 star plays – Bellinger
GPP note – Same as above, though Gore does carry more strikeout upside.
Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals
Manning and the Tigers will take on Lyles and my Royals next, as we break the mold and move back up to a 9.5 total. Detroit is the favorite here, which as much as it pains me to say, is pretty fair. Between Manning being a bit stingy and KC missing their biggest gun, I can’t say that I could disagree with Vegas on this one.
Tigers 4.5 star plays – Carpenter/Green
Tigers 3.5 star plays – McKinstry/Torkelson, Baez/Baddoo
GPP note – Lyles and the bullpen are solid targets as usual, and traditional splits look to be the way to go to start off with.
Royals 4 star plays – Witt
Royals 3.5 star plays – Melendez
GPP note – Manning is allowing some decent contact to lefties, but not much power for how inexpensive he is.
Late games
New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels
We’ll head to the late games now, starting with the Yankees and Angels. Severino and Canning will get the start here, along with a 9.0 total. The bats will all be in a spot to do some damage, so if they can show up and do their thing, there should be a decent chance of them going the over here.
Yankees 4.5 star plays – Torres/Stanton/Rizzo
Yankees 4 star plays – McKinney
GPP note – Canning is allowing decent contact to both sides along with modest power to lefties. He’s allowing even more power to righties, so don’t be afraid to run the RvR bats here.
Angels 5 star plays – Ohtani
Angels 4 star plays – Moniak, Moustakas
GPP note – Severino’s struggles seem to continue, so don’t be afraid to go back to the well here.
Boston Red Sox at Oakland Athletics
Pivetta and the Red Sox will take on Blackburn and the Athletics in our next bout. There’s no insight from Vegas as of yet, though I’d imagine we’ll see them favor the visitors by a fair amount. That makes Pivetta interesting as a budget option, and seeing as he handled these bats quite well just ten days ago, I expect he’ll be a popular option tonight.
Red Sox 5 star plays – Devers
Red Sox 4 star plays – Verdugo/Yoshida, Turner/Duran
GPP note – Blackburn comes in allowing some power to righties but also carries a decent strikeout rate, so he’s not a bad budget SP2 hedge option.
Athletics 4 star plays – Brown
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Noda
GPP note – Basically the same as above, but the power has been going to the lefties and these bats are much more affordable.
Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners
We’ll wrap up the day with the Twins and Mariners, as Gray and Gilbert will face off with a slate-low 7.5 total. While I don’t expect a ton of offense, I don’t think we’ll get one of those iconic pitcher’s duels either, so this game might be a little wonky for our purposes.
Twins 4 star plays – Buxton/Correa
Twins 3.5 star plays – Julien/Kepler/Gallo
GPP note – Gilbert’s strikeout rate seems to be back on the rise, though he does still allow the occasional power to both sides. Some small groups or hedging wouldn’t be a terrible idea.
Mariners 4.5 star plays – Rodriguez
Mariners 4 star plays – Crawford/Hernandez, Raleigh
GPP note – Gray seems a bit hit-or-miss, and while he’s not allowing much power, he is allowing solid xwOBA to righties. Don’t be afraid to attack him some here, even if he does carry a big price tag.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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