Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s DFS MLB Ultimate Breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We head into a new week on this Monday and are greeted with a couple of early games followed by an 8-game main slate. One of the showdown games is in the early afternoon, so we do at least have a little something for everyone today. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A Look at DFS MLB Pitchers
We get our usual variety of pitching options today, ranging from five pitchers with KSCOREs north of 500 and seven others with SIERAs above 4.50. For cash games, somebody like Allen might be the way to go for some salary savings, or you can always pay up for Castillo or Darvish instead. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in!
Early DFS MLB Games
San Francisco Giants at Detroit Tigers
We’ll kick things off with our two early games, starting with the Giants and Tigers. Stripling and Skubal will get there start here, along with a reasonable 8.5 total. Vegas likes the home team here, and considering the overall matchup, I can’t find a glaring reason to disagree.
Giants 4 star plays – Flores/Slater
Giants 3.5 star plays – Davis
GPP note – Not a great spot against Skubal, though he does allow some power to righties.
Tigers 4.5 star plays – Greene
Tigers 4 star plays – Carpenter/McKinstry
GPP note – Traditional splits are the way to go here too, as Stripling allows much more contact and power to lefties as he does to righties.
Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies
Next up we have the Orioles and Phillies, with Kremer and Sanchez on the mound. We move up to a 9.5 total with the home team favored once again, though not by quite as much as in the previous game. Still, I could see this game going either way, as there are plenty of good things to say about the matchup for both offenses. I don’t think that there will be a whole lot of trouble for this game seeing the over.
Orioles 4.5 star plays – Santander/Rutschman
Orioles 4 star plays – Mountcastle, Mateo
GPP note – Righties have the statcast advantage against Sanchez, though lefties aren’t too far behind and plenty of these guys are hitting left-handed pitchers for good power.
Phillies 4.5 star plays – Harper/Schwarber
Phillies 4 star plays – Stott, Castellanos/Turner
GPP note – Mostly the same as the previous three offenses, traditional splits are the better way to go against Kremer as of late, too.
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Main Slate DFS MLB
Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals
Switching over to the main slate, we’ll start with the Rockies and Nationals with Bird and Corbin on the hill. A 9.0 total, I kind of like the over here as well, as I think that both offenses are in a spot to do some damage. Just be sure to keep an eye on the weather, as there looks to be some possible rain in the area.
Rockies 4.5 star plays – Cron
Rockies 4 star plays – Bryant/Profar, Tovar
GPP note – It’s rarely a bad idea to attack Corbin, as he’s still allowing good contact and power to both sides.
Nationals 4.5 star plays – Candelario
Nationals 4 star plays – Abrams/Meneses/Ruiz
GPP note – Who knows what we’ll get from Bird or how long he’ll last, but plenty of these bats are hitting righties well, so stacks of any size are in play here.
Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians
Next up we have Yarbrough and my Royals taking on Allen and the Guardians, along with an 8.5 total. The home team gets the nod once again here, though by much more than in the previous games. Alas, that does seem fair, as Allen has been solid and I don’t know that my guys will be able to do a ton against him.
Royals 4 star plays – Witt/Perez
Royals 3.5 star plays – Garcia/Olivares
GPP note – Tough spot, but a few contrarian mini-stacks could be used.
Guardians 4.5 star plays – Ramirez
Guardians 4 star plays – Bell, Naylor
GPP note – Yarbrough has done a decent job mitigating power but is allowing decent x/wOBA to both sides, so it may just be a matter of time until an offense really gets to him.
Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins
Castillo and the Mariners will take on Maeda and the Twins next, as we move down to a slate-low 8.0 total. Both pitchers offer plenty of upside for us here, and I would not be surprised to see this game hit the under with at least one of these pitchers putting up a strong score. I know most people love their home runs, but I’m always happy to see a pitcher’s duel!
Mariners 4 star plays – Rodriguez
Mariners 3.5 star plays – Hernandez, Suarez
GPP note – Maeda enters this game with plenty of strikeout upside and some power given up to righties, so some contrarian bats and/or hedging could be useful.
Twins 4 star plays – Julien/Kepler, Correa/Buxton
Twins 3.5 star plays – Kirilloff
GPP note – Attacking Castillo isn’t the most fun activity one can endure, but he is allowing some power to both sides with some decent x/wOBA numbers going to lefties, so contrarian moves and/or hedging isn’t off the table here, either.
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
Moving right along, we next have Ashcraft and the Reds set to take on Rea and the Brewers. We get a 9.0 total for this game with the home team as the slight favorites, but I just can’t help but disagree with Vegas’ assessment for this one. While neither starter is likely to shut down the other team’s offense, I do see Cincy getting the upper hand, so we’ll see if they can continue their hot streak.
Reds 5 star plays – De La Cruz
Reds 4 star plays – Votto, McLain/Fraley
GPP note – Like Castillo, Rea is allowing decent power to both sides and some x/wOBA to lefties, though these bats will surely be more popular.
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Adames/Contreras, Winker
GPP note – Ashcraft is another pitcher who we can attack with confidence, as he allows good contact and power to both sides of the plate and carries a low strikeout rate.
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Texas Rangers at Houston Astros
We’ll head down south for our Texas battle, as Gray and the Rangers will square dance off against Bielak and the Astros. An 8.5 total, Vegas has this one mostly split down the middle, though me personally, I’ll give the edge to the Rangers (even if they be without Seager).
Rangers 4.5 star plays – Heim/Lowe
Rangers 4 star plays – Semien, Jankowski
GPP note – Lefties are in a great spot, and although Bielak has been strict to righties, plenty of these ones are hitting right-handed pitching quite well, so both sides are in play here.
Astros 4.5 star plays – Tucker/Bregman
Astros 4 star plays – McCormick
GPP note – Solid spot for these bats, as Gray allows good contact to both sides and some extra power to lefties.
Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres
The late games are up next, starting with the Pirates and Padres. Priester and Darvish will get the start here, along with another 8.5 total. Vegas has the home team slated as the heavy favorites, which I suppose shouldn’t be a big surprise, as they seem to be outclassed on all fronts in this matchup. I suppose one could always go contrarian though, as the Pittsburgh squad shouldn’t see much ownership.
Pirates 4 star plays – Suwinski/Reynolds
Pirates 3.5 star plays – McCutchen, Davis
GPP note – Tough spot against Darvish, but you could always go contrarian if you really wanted to.
Padres 5 star plays – Soto
Padres 4 star plays – Machado/Tatis, Bogaerts/Cronenworth
GPP note – Priester has been a bit of a punching bag in his limited appearances, so you can go after him any way you’d like with these bats.
St Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks
Next up we’ll have Wainwright and the Cardinals taking on Nelson and the Diamondbacks. I don’t have any Vegas insight for this one, but considering the starting pitchers, I’m going to assume we’ll get a healthy total for this game, with plenty of fantasy goodness to come from it later this evening.
Cardinals 5 star plays – Goldschmidt
Cardinals 4 star plays – Arenado, Donovan/Nootbaar, Gorman/DeJong
GPP note – Nelson allows good power to both sides and extra x/wOBA to righties, making this a great spot for these bats.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – Carroll
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Marte, Walker/Gurriel/Perdomo, Thomas
GPP note – Fantastic spot for these guys, so you can stack however you’d like (or even consider game stacked lineups from this one).
Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Dodgers
We’ll wrap things up with the Blue Jays and Dodgers, with Berrios and Grove on the mound. We get a healthy 9.5 total for this game, though my gut is leaning towards the under here, just ever so slightly. I think that Berrios can hold his own more than what Vegas is giving to the Dodgers, so we’ll see if he’s up for the task.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Chapman/Merrifield/Belt
GPP note – A solid spot for these bats, Grove is allowing good contact and power to both sides with a strikeout rate that is slightly below average.
Dodgers 4.5 star plays – Freeman/Betts
Dodgers 4 star plays – Muncy, Martinez/Smith, Outman
GPP note – This spot seems tougher than what this implied total would indicate, so hedging with Berrios or even making a light (or full) fade here might not be a terrible idea.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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