Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. It’s Friday, and we are treated to a 13-game main slate that is preceded by a couple of early games. We get a few interesting things to look forward to, such as a rivalry game between the Red Sox and Yankees, a Coors game, and a handful of mid-ranged pitchers in decent spots. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We get a nice range of options today, with several pitchers facing offenses with 3.xx implied totals, such as Ohtani and Wells, who may make for good cash game options. For those of you who like to hedge, we have Kikuchi on the slate, who is always a fun target for doing that. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early games
Arizona Diamondbacks at Detroit Tigers
We’ll kick things off with the early games, starting with the Diamondbacks and Tigers. Kelly and Lorenzen will get the start here, and with them, an 8.0 total. This one looks like a straight-forward way to start the day, though if Lorenzen can bring his A-game, perhaps he can keep his team in it longer than expected.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – Carroll
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Marte, Smith
GPP note – An okay spot for the lefties, though Lorenzen has been strict to righties. It may be best to spread the load out if you are playing a showdown, rather than stacking overly heavy against him.
Tigers 4 star plays – McKinstry
Tigers 3 star plays – Baez
GPP note – Kelly allows some power to lefties but aside from that, it’s hard to want to pick on him too much with these bats.
Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays
Next up we have the Rangers and Rays, with Heaney and Glasnow on the mound. Another 8.0 total, we do have more dangerous bats here, which likely gives this one a better chance of seeing the over. It’s too bad this one isn’t on the main slate, as it looks pretty interesting.
Rangers 4 star plays – Seager, Semien
Rangers 3.5 star plays – Lowe/Garcia
GPP note – Glasnow hasn’t shown any glaring issues in his return, though he has allowed some power to lefties.
Rays 5 star plays – Arozarena, Franco
Rays 4 star plays – Diaz/Ramirez
GPP note – Heaney is allowing good contact and power to righties, so all of the usual bats are in play here.
Main slate
New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates
We’ll switch over to the main slate now, starting with the Mets and Pirates. We get a healthy 9.5 total for this game, and our starters will be Megill and Hill. Although Vegas has this game split down the middle, I find myself leaning towards the visitors.
Mets 4.5 star plays – Alonso/Lindor
Mets 3.5 star plays – Marte/Pham
GPP note – Hill is allowing good wOBA to both sides and above average power to righties, so both sides of the plate can be looked at here.
Pirates 4.5 star plays – McCutchen/Reynolds
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Suwinski/Santana
GPP note – Megill allows roughly the same contact and power to both sides of the plate, so you can mix and match any bats here.
Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles
Next up we’ll have Lynch and my Royals taking on Wells and the Orioles. There are some early-evening rain possibilities here, though nothing that should kick out either starter, so we don’t need to be on high alert. What is interesting is that we have a fairly low total, even if it is a game featuring KC, so perhaps a decent arm can be found here at a decent price.
Royals 4 star plays – Perez
Royals 3 star plays – Witt/Pasquantino
GPP note – Wells does allow some power to both sides but overall isn’t a great target, so tread lightly.
Orioles 4.5 star plays – Santander/Rutschman/Mountcastle
Orioles 4 star plays – Hays
GPP note – Picking on KC pitching is never a bad option, so it’s business as usual here.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies
Grove and the Dodgers will take on Suarez and the Phillies next, and we move up to another 9.5 total for this one. We have some potential rain issues here as well, and at first glance, it looks to be more of an issue than the first game. I’d be sure to keep your eye on the skies for this one.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Betts/Freeman
Dodgers 4 star plays – Martinez/Smith, Muncy
GPP note – Suarez is allowing very good contact and power to righties and comes in with a below-average strikeout rate, so it’s business as usual here, too.
Phillies 5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 4 star plays – Schwarber/Castellanos/Turner, Stott
GPP note – It’s a good spot for these bats too, and both sides of the plate seem to be in an equally good spot.
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Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
Moving right along, our next game will feature the fabled Red Sox and Yankees rivalry, as Whitlock and Cole will face off. Sort of a combination of the previous two games, we have the 8.0 total of the KC/Baltimore game with the increased threat of rain as the LA/Philly game. Seeing as we have a stud as a starter on one side, you would do well to keep tabs on the skies here.
Red Sox 4 star plays – Devers, Yoshida
Red Sox 3.5 star plays – Verdugo/Turner
GPP note – It’s not a great spot against Cole, but you can always run some contrarian stacks against him.
Yankees 4.5 star plays – Rizzo
Yankees 4 star plays – Stanton/Volpe
GPP note – Whitlock is allowing plenty to both sides of the plate, so stacks of any size with any hand can be used here.
Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays
Next up we have Gray and the Twins set to take on Kikuchi and the Blue Jays. A modest 8.5 total, Vegas likes the home team a little better here, and so long as a decent Kikuchi shows up, that seems reasonable. However, if his gas can alter ego makes an appearance instead, the Twins could rack up some runs in a hurry.
Twins 4.5 star plays – Correa
Twins 4 star plays – Solano
GPP note – It’s never a bad idea to hedge with Kikuchi, and today is no different.
Blue Jays 4.5 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 3.5 star plays – Chapman/Merrifield/Bichette
GPP note – Gray’s strikeout rate has been trending down and these bats are fairly disciplined at the plate, so this could be a good place to go.
Houston Astros at Cleveland Guardians
Javier and the Astros will take on Allen and the Guardians next, as we move back down to an 8.0 total. I would have expected Vegas to give better odds to Houston here, so I find it interesting that they are within half a run of one another (at the early hours of the morning, that is – perhaps this will change as the day goes on).
Astros 4 star plays – Altuve/Bregman
Astros 3.5 star plays – Tucker/Pena
GPP note – Allen is allowing decent xwOBA to both sides and above-average power to lefties, so you can get a little creative here.
Guardians 4 star plays – Ramirez/Naylor
Guardians 3.5 star plays – Bell
GPP note – It’s not a great spot against Javier, but he does allow some power to lefties, so you can take a few contrarian bats against him.
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves
We move back up to a 9.5 total for our next game, as Gray and the Nationals will take on Smith-Shawver and the Braves. This will be the latter’s second start, and he gets a decent matchup at a nice price, so I suspect we’ll see him carry some ownership in hopes of another Abbott performance. As for the Braves, they’re in a great spot, so we’ll see if they can take advantage of it.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Meneses/Candelario
GPP note – Vegas isn’t giving these bats much love against the newer guy with a low price tag, so perhaps some fading or hedging is in order here.
Braves 5 star plays – Acuna
Braves 4 star plays – Olson/Albies, Riley/Murphy/Ozuna
GPP note – Gray is never a bad target, especially not with these bats. Righties have the power advantage, so be sure to give this entire lineup a look.
Miami Marlins at Chicago White Sox
Perez and the Marlins will take on Cease and the White Sox next, and with them, we get another 8.0 total. Both pitchers offer plenty of upside, so this game could be a target for some tournament arms. With that in mind, I suspect we’ll see the under here.
Marlins 4 star plays – Arraez/Soler
Marlins 3.5 star plays – De La Cruz, Sanchez
GPP note – Cease is allowing some decent power to both sides of the plate, so this could be a decent spot to go for some lower-owned bats with reasonable upside.
White Sox 4 star plays – Robert/Anderson
White Sox 3 star plays – Benintendi/Vaughn
GPP note – Perez does some allow some power but also carries plenty of strikeout upside, and these bats aren’t hitting righties all that well right now.
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Oakland Athletics at Milwaukee Brewers
Our next game will be between the Athletics and Brewers, as Moll/Medina will face Houser. Once again we move back up to a 9.5 total (is this thing on repeat or what?), and we get some pretty good odds for the home team. This is more along the lines of what I expected for Houston, but I suppose it takes facing Oakland to get this sort of love today.
Athletics 4 star plays – Noda, Brown
Athletics 3 star plays – Ruiz/Laureano
GPP note – Houser doesn’t bring dominant strikeout stuff into this game, so taking a few shots here isn’t a terrible idea.
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Adames/Tellez/Contreras
GPP note – Medina allows all sorts of stuff to both sides of the plate, so this looks like a good place to go (albeit a chalky one).
Cincinnati Reds at St Louis Cardinals
Next up we have Lively and the Reds set to take on Montgomery and the Cardinals. We’ll split the difference and get an 8.5 total for this game, with the home team being moderately favored. While I do agree with that assessment, I do think that we have a decent chance of seeing the under here, as I could see Lively keeping the St Louis offense, well, a but unlively.
Reds 4 star plays – India/Steer/McClain
Reds 3.5 star plays – De La Cruz
GPP note – Vegas isn’t giving these bats much love, but Montgomery is allowing good power to righties and quite a few of these bats are hitting lefties well, so I think this could be a good spot to pivot to.
Cardinals 5 star plays – Goldschmidt
Cardinals 4 star plays – Donovan/Arenado, DeJong
GPP note – Vegas does like these bats, though Lively can hold his own and this offense sometimes has strikeout issues. It wouldn’t be a bad spot to hedge.
San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies
We’ll head to our Coors game next, as the Padres will take on the Rockies. Darvish and Gomber will get the start here, and they get an 11.5 total to start with. I don’t think a whole lot needs to be said here, as Vegas pretty much lays out what most people are probably thinking.
Padres 5 star plays – Tatis/Machado, Soto
Padres 4 star plays – Cronenworth
GPP note – You don’t need me to tell you to go here.
Rockies 4.5 star plays – Blackmon/McMahon
Rockies 4 star plays – Profar, Grichuk
GPP note – It’s not a bad idea to hedge with a stud pitching at Coors.
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels
We’ll head out west for our final two games, starting with the Mariners and Angels. Castillo and Ohtani will get the start here, and we move all the way down to a 7.5 total. With two studs squaring off, we could pretty easily see the under here, so most of these bats probably won’t garner a whole lot of attention.
Mariners 4 star plays – Rodriguez
Mariners 3 star plays – Raleigh/Crawford
GPP note – It’s Ohtani, so you can fade, hedge, or go contrarian.
Angels 4.5 star plays – Trout
Angels 3.5 star plays – Rendon/Drury/Moniak
GPP note – Mostly the same as above, though Castillo does allow a little more xwOBA and power to righties than Ohtani does.
Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants
And finally, we’ll wrap up the day with the Cubs and Giants. Stroman and DeSclafani will get the start here, and we get another 7.5 total with them. While that is probably fair, I suppose we have a better chance of seeing the over here, though I’m not quite sure that they will be a source of huge Coors-pivot stacks. Some smaller ones, perhaps?
Cubs 4 star plays – Suzuki/Swanson
Cubs 3.5 star plays – Happ
GPP note – DeSclafani is allowing modest power to both sides with a downward trending strikeout rate, so some medium-sized stacks could prove useful.
Giants 4 star plays – Pederson/Conforto
Giants 3 star plays – Yastrzemski
GPP note – Stroman isn’t allowing much power and seems to have found a groove, so proceed with caution.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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