Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 6/8:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Yonny Chirinos
- Luis Severino
- Zack Wheeler
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Minnesota Twins @ Tampa Bay Rays (-170)
Pitchers:
Twins – Bailey Ober
Rays – Yonny Chirinos
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7.5. The Twins’ strikeout rate meets the extreme strikeout ability of Tyler Glasnow. That seems like a recipe for a lot of Glasnow success. Ober has actually been really strong for the Twins but today is just not the day I don’t believe. The Rays are just so damn good, even when a portion of the roster is struggling, they still have a bunch of guys getting it done in the box. *UPDATE* The Rays are going with Chirinos over Glasnow. That makes me sad but Chirinos has a live arm but hasn’t showcased the same kind of K ability.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Farmer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs.
TB 5-star plays: Wander Franco
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Luke Raley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .201 against RHPs.
Baltimore Orioles (-120) @ Milwaukee Brewers
Pitchers:
Orioles – Kyle Bradish
Brewers – Colin Rea
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Rea hasn’t been good but he does get the Orioles while they struggling quite a bit. They are rocking an OPS of just .540 over the last week to go with an ISO of .126. Bradish has been decent but when he gets into trouble, he allows power to RHBs. The Brewers woke up big time last night and with a quick turn around that could continue today. I generally think the opposite as there could be a little hangover from last night’s game.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Aaron Hicks, Adley Rutschman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against RHPs.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Wiemer, Willy Adames
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs.
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Chicago Cubs @ Los Angeles Angels (-135)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Drew Smyly
Angels – Reid Detmers
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I always fall for Detmers but I think I am going to be able to skip him tonight. The Cubs have been best against LHPs and he hasn’t been overly sharp. I still believe that he has ace like stuff but he makes so many mistakes. Smyly keeps plugging along but I do like this Angels lineup against him. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Adell in the lineup and an HR from him wouldn’t surprise me, either.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Dansby Swanson, Yan Gomes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against LHPs.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Brandon Drury, Luis Rengifo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against LHPs.
Arizona Diamondbacks (-155) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Diamondbacks – Merrill Kelly
Nationals – Josiah Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I always love stacking the D’Backs. They have enough power to go with speed to make their upside really strong. Carroll is having a great rookie season and is currently being overshadowed by Elly De La Cruz’s 2 game MLB debut. Kelly has been spectacular away from home and now he takes on a weak Washington lineup. It’s really hard to ignore the upside he offers us today.
ARI 5-star plays: Corbin Carroll
4-star plays: Christian Walker, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against RHPs.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .121 against RHPs.
Chicago White Sox @ New York Yankees (-140) – Game 1
Pitchers:
White Sox – Lance Lynn
Yankees – Luis Severino
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 9. Remember that the SP match-ups in doubleheaders can flip flop almost last minute. I am curious to see what the air quality is like after yesterday’s postponement. Severino is definitely better than Lynn but the current Yankees lineup is hurting without Judge, that’s for sure. Lynn has given up HRs and walks all season so that’s going to benefit the Yankees quite a bit.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .141 against RHPs.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jake Bauers, Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 against RHPs.
Chicago White Sox @ New York Yankees (-170) – Game 2
Pitchers:
White Sox – Mike Clevinger
Yankees – Randy Vasquez
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. I am a little shocked to see Vasquez more of a favorite than Severino. That makes me wonder if Vegas doesn’t already think that the SPs will flip flop for the Yankees. Clevinger should get hit hard but again, the Yankees are so much weaker without Judge anchoring the lineup. I really look for Rizzo to try to carry this team over the next week or so. I want to get bats in Yankee stadium whenever possible but I just don’t know about today.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .141 against RHPs.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jake Bauers, Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 against RHPs.
Detroit Tigers @ Philadelphia Phillies (-260)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Reese Olson or Tyler Holton
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Honestly, I am shocked the Phillies aren’t a -300 or greater favorite in this one. Detroit is back to struggling and Wheeler can be as dominant as just about any SP in baseball. Full fade on the Tigers bats for me which means I might as well lock Wheeler in 100% for the early slate of action. Schwarber is heating up so at this point we should expect a double-dong today.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: Team ISO of .115 against RHPs.
PHI 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos, Trea Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against RHPs.
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New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves (-178)
Pitchers:
Mets – Justin Verlander
Braves – Spencer Strider
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I do think there are a couple of HRs hit in this game but Strider is in a strong spot. The Mets offense has been scuffling enough and now you take Alonso out of the lineup as the Braves were smart to hit him (it wasn’t intentional). Verlander has been very solid but this ATL offense is going to explode soon, I really think that it could come tonight. Olson has a double-dong game coming in the next week.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Matt Olson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 against RHPs.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-235) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Reds – Graham Ashcraft
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. We could see plenty of runs again today in Cincinnati but we could also see Kershaw do some dealing. I know the overall CIN team ISO is better against LHPs but that’s buoyed more by a couple of extremes than with their RHP number. The lineup just dropped for LAD so I am a little annoyed that there is no Will Smith because this felt like a great match-up for him.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Miguel Vargas, JD Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .207 against RHPs.
CIN 5-star plays: Elly De La Cruz
4-star plays: Spencer Steer, Matt McLain
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against LHPs.
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Houston Astros (-120) @ Toronto Blue Jays
Pitchers:
Astros – Framber Valdez
Blue Jays – Jose Berrios
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Every time I look at the TOR numbers against LHPs, I just shake my head in disbelief. This team should be crushing LHPs with the lineup that they put out there but yet, they swing wet pool noodles. Valdez is a quality start machine and Berrios has been really good at home and overall since his early season struggles. I wouldn’t be shocked if he gives up an HR to Tucker though.
HOU 5-star plays: Kyle Tucker
4-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against RHPs.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .121 against LHPs.
San Francisco Giants (-178) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Giants – Alex Cobb
Rockies – Chase Anderson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11.5. Surprisingly, the Giants roster hasn’t crushed Anderson in previous match-ups and a few guys are actually struggling over the last week. With that said, they still grade out extremely well in Coors today. Cobb might be worthy of some ownership as the Rockies overall lineup is pretty damn weak plus he’s such an extreme groundball guy that Coors shouldn’t hurt him as much.
SF 5-star plays: Lamonte Wade
4-star plays: Joc Pederson, Michael Conforto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 against RHPs.
COL 5-star plays: Randal Grichuk
4-star plays: Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs.
Boston Red Sox @ Cleveland Guardians (-135)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Matt Dermody
Guardians – Aaron Civale
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The weather in CLE still sides with the pitching in this one. Civale just isn’t exciting as an SP so his upside is a bit capped without big K ability. Dermody gets a great match-up but he hasn’t started at the MLB level and he hasn’t been strong at AAA this season. He has had some K ability at AAA this season so maybe he’s a sneaky dart throw at min price on DK.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Masataka Yoshida
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andres Gimenez, Mike Zunino
GPP Note: Team ISO of .124 against LHPs.
Seattle Mariners @ San Diego Padres (-115)
Pitchers:
Mariners – George Kirby
Padres – Michael Wacha
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of
SEA 5-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez, Ty France
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against RHPs.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis, Rougned Odor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Los Angeles Angels
- Chicago Cubs
- Atlanta Braves
MLB Dinger of the Day – JD Martinez, Dodgers
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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